Research

Economic Research - We collate the Investec Group’s considerable analytical resources to provide reports with a South African market perspective.

South Africa is a medium-sized economy with a gross domestic product of R2 200bn (US$290bn) and a population of 48 million. While GDP per capita measurements place SA in the middle income category, the country’s very high level of income inequality means a large percentage of the population lives in poverty. The manufacturing and finance sectors are the largest and the manufacturing sector the greatest formal employer.

While the economy is in its longest ever business up-cycle, the unemployment rate is close to 25% and growth has averaged 4.0% pa over the last 10 years. The relative economic stability the ANC has achieved is a sound base from which to move toward the employment-creating growth rate of 5 - 6%. We expect growth to average 3.5 - 5% over the next few years and should move to above 5% thereafter.

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Prospects

	2008	2009
GDP (real, %)	3.1	-2.6
Prime lending rate (%, year-end)	15	10
CPI inflation (%)	11.6	6.7
Current account (% GDP)	-7.4	-5.6
Current account (Rbn)	-169.2	-135.7
USD/ZAR (average)	8.25	8.62
GBP/ZAR (average)	15.27	13.26
EUR/ZAR (average)	12.13	11.72
YEN/ZAR (average)	12.53	11.33
Budget deficit (% GDP)	-0.6	-3.3

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Published: 11 June 2009

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