Copyright Investec 2013
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Preparing for Sale
Owners of businesses often reach a natural decision to leave at some point in their career. Giving up ownership to a new party, investor, private equity group or even to the next generation is never an easy task. -
Lower than expected PPI adds to inflation good news
November’s PPI inflation rate, at 5.2% y/y, came out below the market expectation of 5.4% y/y, due to a lower than expected rise in the contribution from mining and quarrying and agriculture. -
Inflation Ticks-Up, Core Inflation Rises More Strongly, Interest Rate Cut Remains Unlikely
The differential between the repo rate and the CPI inflation rate is still in negative territory, -0.7%, and is widening from the 0% recorded in June. This gap will likely widen further (potentially toward -1. -
The New Weighting Method Subdues Inflation but Upward Pressure Likely in the Next Few Readings
CPI inflation came out well below consensus expectations of 5.7% y/y for January 2013, at 5.4% y/y (December 2012 5.7% y/y). This represents the first reading in the new CPI inflation series. -
New PPI series brings producer inflation to 5.8%
Significant inflation pressures (above 6%) were felt at the food, footwear, wood and paper products, production of coke and petroleum products and some components of transport equipment production levels. The annual % change in the PPI for electricity and water was 12. -
PPI below consensus, lower grain prices provides relief
The trend of increasing grain price inflation has reversed on the back of lower international prices with domestic grain prices decreasing 6.9% m/m and 2.9% y/y in December. This is well below the inflation rate for grain products at the retail level (bread and cereals) at 7. -
An Unchanged Rate of Inflation, But Interest Rate Cut Unlikely
The differential between the repo rate and the CPI inflation rate is still in negative territory, -0.6%, and this gap will likely widen toward -1.5% by the middle of next year as inflation rises due to the reweighting and rebasing exercise of the CPI in 2013. We expect a peak of near to 6. -
Producer price inflation rises on rand weakness, CPI inflation likely to move higher
October’s PPI inflation rate, at 5.2% y/y, came out above the market expectation of 4.8% y/y, due to a greater than expected rise in the contribution from mining and quarrying and agriculture. -
Lower on base effects, but sharp upward pressure from grain prices starting to come through
PPI inflation came out at 5.4% y/y in July, vs 6.6% y/y in June, and also lower than the market consensus expectation of 5.6% y/y. However, the moderation in the PPI inflation rate was driven by base effects, with significant upward price pressure recorded by agricultural food prices on the month. -
A slight rise, indicative of the likely trend for the remainder of 2012
CPI inflation came out exactly as expected in August, at 5.0% y/y (July 4.9% y/y). The differential between the repo rate and the CPI inflation rate is clearly now 0%.
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