Critically, results in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan remained uncertain with many votes still to be counted. The vast numbers of mail-in votes that this election has, predictably, delayed results. In other key battleground states, there is a mixed picture, where news reports suggest President Trump is set to hold battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio, but results from the two states are not yet final. Arizona appeared to be on track for a Biden win.
In North Carolina, another key swing state, counting of mail ballots can continue until 12 November. In Georgia, election results for Fulton county, which includes the majority of Atlanta, will be delayed after a pipe burst in a room where absentee ballots were being counted. Meanwhile, adding to the state of confusion, it is being reported that in one district in Florida, turnout has been greater than 100%, adding to concerns that we could well face a contested result.
It remains unclear which of the presidential rivals look more likely to come out on top. Both men maintain that they have a path to victory, with the results for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan critical.
Victoria Clarke, Economist
Battle for control of the SenateAway from the presidential race, the Senate contest also remained uncertain with just under a third of the 35 senate races still to be called. The Democrats have had apparent success in the Colorado and Arizona races. However, Republican Susan Collins appeared to be doing well in Maine, while Republican Joni Ernst looked to have held on in Iowa’s Senate seat.
In markets, the US dollar has firmed somewhat overnight, currently trading at $1.1650 against the euro and standing at $1.2980 against the pound. Despite the lack of clarity, however, risk sentiment has not soured broadly. In fixed income markets, 10-year US Treasury bond yields were 10 basis points lower at 0.80% at the time of writing. However, this might as much be attributed to diminished optimism over the prospect of a huge Democratic-led fiscal stimulus package.
Asian equity markets were in the green at the time of writing, but US futures are mixed. Notably, the NASDAQ future is up 2%, while the Dow future is 0.5% lower, reflecting diminished prospects of a big Democratic victory and the two parties’ respective approaches to big technology companies and fiscal stimulus.
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