Economic outlook 2017 – 2022: South Africa’s economic growth likely to remain below that of both sub-Saharan Africa and world growth
15 May 2017
Incoming data for H2.17 is evidencing that while sub-Saharan Africa continues to experience subdued growth on the commodity price effect, globally economic activity is picking up, but structural impediments in many sub-Saharan countries, South Africa included, will limit the lift gained from the (modest) global upswing.
Expansionary fiscal policy in the US is still expected to drive growth, while the European recovery continues, with manufacturing activity and trade improvements of 2016 still noted globally, and indications that this persisted into H2.17 (see figure 4). The feed through into investment and imports is expected to persist, strengthening global economic activity. However the slowdown in China and moderation in commodity prices has impacted emerging market growth, with only a modest pick-up expected. In sub-Saharan Africa a lift in growth is expected as well (see figure 2), with SA’s pick-up in growth more modest. Commodity prices are generally expected to rise this year and next, but only modestly, and not reaching the heights of 2011 (see figure 4).