Market Brief: Boris Johnson follows David Davis
Much like the England team, this week seems to be a crucial one for the British Government and in particular Prime Minister Theresa May.
|Today's data releases||Key levels|
|09:30||UK ONS GDP May estimate||Support
|09:30||UK industrial, manufacturing and construction data||GBP/USD||1.3200
|09:30||UK trade balance||GBP/EUR||1.1250
Much like the England football team, this week seems to be a crucial one for the British Government and in particular PM May. After the resignation of David Davis, Brexit Secretary, on Sunday and Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, yesterday, PM Theresa May appeared before the 1922 committee of backbench MPs amidst speculation over whether she would face a leadership challenge. Following a difficult session in Parliament earlier in the day, the PM was applauded by her lawmakers at the end of the committee meeting, suggesting that for now the PM has settled momentum against her. However it remains to be seen how many letters 1922 committee Chair Graham Brady now holds, calling for a leadership vote. BBC political correspondent Ian Watson tweeted yesterday evening that he was told Brady made it clear that the 48 signatures that would start a leadership contest hadn’t been received.
However, the Sunday Mirror reported at the weekend that Brady was just six letters short of the required number to trigger a vote and it would be surprising if that gap had not closed further after yesterday. PM May did her best to pave over the cracks yesterday evening and presumably to try and move the debate along and stem any leadership challenge, appointing Jeremy Hunt as her new Foreign Secretary and filling other gaps created in the space of the last two days. Finally, the post Chequers Brexit White Paper which was due on Thursday, has now been delayed to next week. The pound weakened on the political worries through yesterday and, despite finding a footing late yesterday after the 1922 gathering, it remains well down on Monday’s open after the losses recorded following Boris Johnson’s resignation around 3pm.
In other news, BRC retail sales figures published this morning showed June sales rising 1.1% on a like for-like (yoy) basis, with total sales rising 2.3%. England’s fortunes in the World Cup and the warmer weather were clearly a factor with the BRC noting increased sales of alcohol, BBQs and big screen TVs. In terms of the numbers, food sales rose 1.7% (3m yoy) and non-food sales +0.8%. Away from the UK, we heard from ECB President Mario Draghi, where he said the improvement in euro-area inflation is on a self-sustained path as he struck a confident tone that the ECB can withdraw its stimulus despite the threat of a global trade war.
The day ahead
Looking at today’s calendar we have a major UK data releases at 09:30am, with the first ever publication of monthly GDP, for the month of May. At the same time we will also see Manufacturing, Industrial and Construction output in the UK followed by the trade balance.
Thought of the day
I was at Lords last week for Middlesex vs. Surrey T20 cricket match – it was a fantastic evening out, with many fun moments, in glorious sunshine. Whilst the cricket itself was entertaining, one of the highlights for me was hearing the near capacity crowd sing “Football’s coming home!” Never in my lifetime did I ever think the Three Lions (now very famous) song would grace the airwaves of the Home of Cricket, but then again there seems to be a surprise a minute these days – like David Davis and Boris Johnson both resigning yesterday! Apologies, I am getting side-tracked… getting back to my initial chain of thought on Lords cricket ground – did you know that the MCC have unveiled plans to redevelop the Compton and Edrich stands? The new stands will cost in the region of £50 million and will be ready by 2020 and the design looks rather spectacular. It reminded me that change is certainly the one constant in life. Even old and famous establishments like Lords need to adapt to the modern world. The new stand certainly does this by allowing greater access for wheelchair users whilst blending in well to the surroundings (particularly, the Oval shaped Media centre). Has your FX strategy adapted to the current market? Whilst you don’t need to re-invent the wheel, we are perfectly positioned to cast our eye over your FX Policy and make design tweaks that benefit you immensely.