Market Brief - Trump & Kim: the beginning of a special relationship?
Where else can we start other than yesterday’s historic meeting between Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-Un.
|Today's data releases||Key levels|
|09:30||UK jobless claims & average earnings||Support||Resistance|
|10:00||EU German ZEW & EU ZEW||GBP/USD||1.3205||1.3601|
It was nearly a year ago that Trump referred to Kim as “little rocket man.” And in retaliation, Kim threatened to send missiles at the U.S. territory of Guam, and called Trump a “mentally deranged dotard”. Strong words, I’m sure you’d agree, but it now seems the verbal tit for tat has been put to bed after Trump hailed the meeting saying it went “better than anyone could imagine” and the start of a “very special bond” while Kim Jong-un declared the beginning of a new era of relations. The 40 minute meeting concluded with the signing of a document by both leaders, which included a commitment to build a “lasting and stable” peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and to “work towards” complete denuclearisation by Pyongyang.
Back home and our embattled PM sought to dampen a rebellion by pro-European members within the Tory camp. However Mrs May still risks a defeat on another as she fights for a compromise deal that can hold her divided party together through a week of perilous voting. A compromise was reached late Monday over the wording of a largely symbolic amendment to keep the UK inside the European Union’s customs union. But it’s not yet clear if the government has seen off a potentially more important rebellion on a vote that would give Parliament unprecedented power to direct the Brexit negotiations if lawmakers reject the divorce deal that May brings back from Brussels. Some rebels were still holding out late on Monday on the amendment known as the "meaningful vote" clause, which was inserted by the unelected House of Lords. Horse-trading will go down to the wire before a vote at about 3pm in London.
The day ahead
Asides from politics, we are set for a busy day of data starting with UK labour market data at 9.30am. Figures from the ONS showed that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for the first quarter and we look for the rate to hold as we see little sign that hiring intentions are softening. Pay growth will be key to the markets view on a rate hike at the BoE August meeting where the likelihood currently stands at 50% following yesterday’s poor set of industrial production and construction figures. Focus then switches to the US this afternoon with the US inflation release set for 1.30pm.
Thought of the day
If you're just waking up in Europe or on a lunch break in Asia, welcome to a historic day. US President Donald Trump has met, shaken hands with and had talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Quite remarkable considering it was only a matter of weeks ago Trump tweeted “Kim Jong-un is obviously a madman” while Kim was quoted saying Trump was a “mentally deranged dotard" and calling him an "old lunatic”. With no US president ever having met a North Korea leader it would only be right to share with you some of the more interesting aspects of the meeting. Firstly, the menu contained a mixture of both Western and Asian dishes, including prawns cocktail, Beef short ribs and Yangzhou fried rice. Secondly, some extraordinary quotes are emerging including this from North Korean leader, ”The entire world is watching and many will see the unlikely meeting as something out of science fiction." Finally, what do North Koreans actually know of the meeting? It is being reported by state media, but with those viewing, reading or listening to international media facing a potential prison sentence, it’s hard to say exactly what they are being told. To keep up to date with how the extraordinary meeting will affect the FX markets or just to hear some more bizarre features of this unlikely encounter, give our dealing team a call on 020 7597 4000.