Market Brief: will Europe approve of the UK White Paper?

02 Jul 2020

Sana Hanassi-Savari

Dealing team

The UK government has finally published its 'white paper' on the future UK-EU trading relationship. 

Today's data releases Key levels
12:30 UK BoE's Cunliffe speaks Support
Resistance
13:30 US imported price index GBP/USD 1.3095
1.3300
15:00 US Michigan consumer confidence GBP/EUR 1.1267
1.1350

Market overview

The fine details of the paper are still being analysed but overall it seems to be broadly in line with PM May’s Chequers speech last week which committed to the EU Single Market in goods but not in services. For financial services, the UK is seeking an enhanced equivalence regime, which means no passporting, so banks may need to be separately capitalized in the EU if they want to conduct certain activities with EU clients. We now wait for the EU’s response, which will be critical. Will they allow for progress to take place or will they go back and forth, stating that they UK cannot cherry pick? Trump’s comments on the recent UK-EU progress didn’t help the matter. He stated that the PM’s plans for a soft Brexit would end the UK’s hope of a trade deal with the US. “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the U.K., so it will probably kill the deal,” Trump said in an interview in the Sun newspaper. And to rub salt into the wounds he also suggested Boris Johnson would be a “great” leader. Staying in the UK, there is a lot of talk among Tory MPs that Number 10 now fears the number of letters of no confidence in Theresa May is close to reaching the 48 threshold. Several MPs told Guido yesterday morning that Downing Street has signalled it believes the number is approaching 48.
 
In Europe, the ECB’s minutes yielded few real surprises. On the economy, as stated during the press conference the account notes that the Q1 soft patch may have extended into the second quarter in some countries, but the overall expansion was expected to continue into the medium term. There was an acknowledgement of more ‘prominent’ global risks, notably from trade, but that overall the risks to the Eurozone growth outlook remained broadly balanced. On Inflation, the GC held the view that progress was being made on a sustained adjustment in inflation to target and that they remained confident that this progress would continue.
 
With regard to policy, the account does not reveal any further clues as to the extent of the debate over the decision to end asset purchases by the end of the year and adjust the central bank’s interest rate guidance. It was seen amongst the GC that the new guidance, that interest rates would remain at their current level at least through the summer of 2019, provided a good balance between ‘precise guidance and maintaining adequate flexibility’. In the wake of June’s ECB decision, it has emerged that the policy announcement was a result of needing to strike a delicate balance between the doves and the hawks on the committee. Indeed those differences in views are evident in reports in recent days that have suggested that a number of members of the GC believe that the wording of the guidance was vague enough for the ECB to hike rates as soon as July 2019, should the economic data warrant, seemingly contradicting the broad message from the press conference and market interpretation that rates would not rise until September 2019 at the earliest.

The day ahead

Looking at the day ahead there is very little data to report on. In the US this afternoon we're due to get June import and exports price indices along with preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The Fed will also release its semi-annual  monetary policy report to Congress. Away from that, the BoE's Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe will speak at noon and President Trump is due to meet with the Queen later today.

Thought of the day

It might seem like déjà vu to have another thought of the day on the fact that football’s not coming home. But I’ve returned to work after an amazing trip to Russia and can honestly say it was an experience of a lifetime! Shame about the result but Southgate has returned the passion to international football. The Russian people couldn’t have been more welcoming, so much so I’m looking into a two week holiday to Samara. Whilst I’ve been away Theresa May has been up against it with David Davis resigning, followed by Boris Johnson and now with Trump in the UK giving an interview suggesting that she ignored his advice on Brexit it seems like things couldn’t get any worse for Theresa. To discuss the trip or what lies in store for the Prime Minister give the dealing team a call on 0207 597 4000. 

Discover how our Treasury team can help your business

Live FX graph

Live FX graph

Live FX rates

Live FX rates

  • View important information

    This Market Commentary is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any related financial instruments. This commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote independent investment research. The information contained in this commentary has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, implied or not, is provided in relation to its accuracy, suitability or completeness. Any opinions, forecasts or estimates constitute a judgement as at the date of this report and do not necessarily reflect the view of Investec Bank plc ("Investec"), its subsidiaries or affiliates. This commentary does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial circumstances or particular needs of any recipient and it should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of investors' own judgement. Investors should seek their own financial, tax, legal and regulatory advice regarding the appropriateness or otherwise of investing in any investment strategies and should understand that past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of any investments may fall as well as rise.This commentary is confidential and may not be disclosed or distributed to any third party without the prior written consent of Investec. Investec Bank plc is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority and a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office 30 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QP. Investec Bank plc 2018.