Angela Merkel

02 Jul 2020

Market Brief: New day, old news

James Dazeley

Dealing team

China vowed to retaliate against US companies overnight after President Donald Trump threatened to place tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese imports.

Today's data releases Key levels
09:00 EU current account   Support
Resistance
09:00 EU Draghi speaks GBP/USD 1.3203
1.3451
13:30 US building permits GBP/EUR 1.1306
1.1600

Market overview

Trump's actions deepen a trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. In case you missed it, this is in reaction to a tit for tat scuffle which occurred over the weekend where President Trump confirmed the US’s intention to add tariffs to US$50 billion of imports from China, with the first US$34 billion tranche effective from July 6th. A few hours later China replied by announcing it will raise import duties on US$34 billion worth of American goods, including soybeans, electric cars and whiskey. If you feel you’ve been hearing about this for months now, and that this seems a lot like old news to you, don’t worry, you are in good company. The JPY rose against all of its Group-of-10 peers as a demand for safe haven assets swept the markets while share prices in Asia slumped. EUR/USD is off its 1.1645 high dropping 0.3% to trade at 1.1589 at the time of writing.

 

GBP remained under pressure yesterday as Theresa May was defeated on her key Brexit legislation in the House of Lords. The Prime Minister now faces another decisive vote in the House of Commons tomorrow as lawmakers backed an amendment to ensure a “meaningful vote” for Parliament on any Brexit deal agreed with the European Union – or on what to do if there’s no deal. The Lords vote, which was widely expected, inserts a clause into the bill that would give Parliament the power to direct the final stage of Brexit negotiations. Parliament, which backs a softer Brexit than the one being pursued by the government, would also be able to block a ‘no-deal’ split. The bill will now return to the Commons on Wednesday for a vote that could determine the outcome of Brexit talks while ministers will hold discussions with potential rebels today to try and convince them to side with the government. GBP/USD has hit its lowest level since November 20th this morning currently trading at 1.3205

 

In the Eurozone Chancellor Angela Merkel accepted a two-week deadline to win agreement on tough migration policy, a concession to her Bavarian coalition partners that eases an immediate standoff without removing the threat of further government tension down the road. Under pressure from Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, Merkel will now attempt to reach a deal with the EU that aims to facilitate the return of migrants to those countries where they were first registered. She told reporters yesterday that this was ‘no easy task’ but that they have a ‘particular responsibility’ to maintain the European project. Merkel will be looking for support on the issue when she meets French President Emmanuel Macron during a joint cabinet meeting at a government retreat outside Berlin today. 

The day ahead

Investors will be keeping an eye on the first full day of the ECB Sintra conference with President Mario Draghi’s introductory speech expected at 9am. On the data front it is very quiet with only US building permits, released at 1.30pm, worth noting.

Thought of the day

In case you missed it, the red heads amongst your friends, family, and colleagues are now getting fair representation. The ginger emoji has been announced and will filter through to our messaging apps soon as tech firms update their software. Our very own, Jessica Marr, is thrilled by the news and we’re just waiting for our group chat to be filled with them. Continuous improvement is the name of the game in any aspect of life and we take that to heart. Our Hedging Analytics platform is regularly being updated with it now having the ability to add in cover with other providers. We want you to have a full and clear view so you can best manage your exposure. If you’d like to get access to see your live positions, please give our dealing desk a call on 0800 055 6339 and we can get you logged in.

Discover how our Treasury team can help your business

Live FX graph

Live FX graph

Live FX rates

Live FX rates

  • View important information

    This Market Commentary is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any related financial instruments. This commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote independent investment research. The information contained in this commentary has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, implied or not, is provided in relation to its accuracy, suitability or completeness. Any opinions, forecasts or estimates constitute a judgement as at the date of this report and do not necessarily reflect the view of Investec Bank plc ("Investec"), its subsidiaries or affiliates. This commentary does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial circumstances or particular needs of any recipient and it should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of investors' own judgement. Investors should seek their own financial, tax, legal and regulatory advice regarding the appropriateness or otherwise of investing in any investment strategies and should understand that past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of any investments may fall as well as rise.This commentary is confidential and may not be disclosed or distributed to any third party without the prior written consent of Investec. Investec Bank plc is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority and a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office 2 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QP. Investec Bank plc 2018.