Market Brief: GBP/EUR at 8 year low

22 Aug 2017

Shaun Garrett

Dealing team

Monday began in a summer lull with a lack of data releases meaning traders are preparing for Thursday, with little position taking beforehand.

Latest rates   Today's data release
GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/CAD GBP/CHF 09:30 UK public sector finances
1.2875 1.0917 1.6214 1.6167 1.2420 10:00 EU ZEW
GBP/JPY GBP/HKD GBP/ZAR EUR/USD EUR/GBP 15:00 US FHFA house price index
140.72 10.0739 16.9213 1.1792 0.9159
Investec currency forecasts as at 27 July 2017 Key levels
  Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Support Resistance
GBP/USD
1.29 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.2818 1.2927
GBP/EUR 1.13 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.0625 1.0994
market brief daily chart

Market overview

Monday began in a summer lull with a lack of data releases meaning traders are preparing for Thursday, with little position taking beforehand. USD has traded higher overnight; Tokyo-based funds buy dollars amid speculation that the USD will be boosted by comments from central bankers at the Jackson Hole symposium meeting this week.
More importantly, GBP/EUR has moved to the lowest levels since October 2009, even more concerning for GBP sellers is the support levels now resting at 1.0625 leaving a lot of space to the downside. The ECB's Draghi may well be careful in what he says to not cause too much EUR volatility; it is worth noting that EUR has risen as much as 6.5%, as measured by the Bloomberg euro index, since his speech in Portugal in late June. It is widely expected that Draghi's comments will outshine Yellen's at the end of the week.
In the UK today PM Theresa May’s government is dropping its third position paper in two days on how it sees its future relationship with Europe. The government yesterday published position papers on goods on the market and access to official documents to "help give businesses and consumers certainty and confidence" on Britain following Brexit.

The day ahead

This morning brings UK public sector finances data followed by German Economic sentiment figures. We finish the day with US FHFA house price index.

Thought of the day

The record breaking superstar athlete, Usain Bolt, celebrates his 31st birthday this week. ‘Lightning Bolt’ as he’s otherwise known became the first man to win gold in the 100 metres at three separate Olympics and in total, he's earned eight career Olympic gold medals as well as countless medals at the World Championships! Sterling could do with a bolt of its own, back to the levels seen 31 years ago when GBP/USD was trading in the mid-1.50s. The summer lull has a grip on the currency markets with tight trading ranges becoming more and more familiar, but this could all change on Friday as investors brace themselves for the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole - where the world's top central bankers may signal their next policy actions. With Yellen, Draghi and Carney all set to take centre stage, could it be the dollar, euro or pound on top of the podium come the weekend?

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