03 Aug 2017

Market Brief: Pound awaits PMI data and MPC decision

Philip Stevens

Dealing team

My next-door neighbours cut down a large tree that overlooked our kitchen yesterday, so I was excited to get home to see the new lease of light that flooded into the kitchen.

Latest rates   Today's data release
GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/AUD GBP/CHF 09:00 EU composite PMI
1.3231 1.1164 1.6690 1.6673 1.2831 09:30 UK services PMI
GBP/JPY GBP/HKD GBP/ZAR EUR/USD EUR/GBP 12:00 UK BoE rate decision and inflation report
146.41 10.3451 17.5289 1.1852 0.8956 15:00 US durable goods orders
Investec currency forecasts as at 27 July 2017 Key levels
  Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Support Resistance
GBP/USD
1.29 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.3115 1.3251
GBP/EUR 1.13 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.1125 1.1247
market brief daily chart
Market overview

My next-door neighbours cut down a large tree that overlooked our kitchen yesterday, so I was excited to get home to see the new lease of light that flooded into the kitchen. I was not disappointed as the room was without doubt lighter and it was great to be able to see the sky – albeit through the torrential rain that was cascading down at the time!

Many will be hoping that GBP will be given a new lease of light from the Services PMI figures (09:30, expected at 53.5) and the Bank of England rate decision and inflation report at 12:00. With Services representing the largest sector in the economy its health is imperative for the continued growth in the economy and any weakness would have a detrimental effect on the pound. A bumper report may not have as great an impact as normal as market participants may be wary of the Bank of England two and a half hours later.

What to watch out for at 12:00? The last vote was 5-3 in favour of keeping rates on hold, and with Kristin Forbes having left (and being one who voted FOR a rate hike) markets are expecting a 6-2 outcome. Outside of this the other things to watch are whether the bank revises down its growth and inflation forecasts in light of recent data , whether there is any mention of the changing face of Brexit negotiations and how this affects growth and finally any more mentions of worries around consumer credit.

Outside of our Island nation the US stock markets powered to new heights as the Dow Jones sailed through 22,000 for the first time ever, it also marked the longest period since 2007 that the S&P has not had a day’s gain of more than 1%. This is interesting as many are worried about overvalued assets and the very low level of volatility attributed to them (those old enough to remember 2004-2007 will remember that feeling) and this has led to ever increasing hedges to protect against a fall in stock markets.

The day ahead

UK services PMI and Bank of England rate decision and inflation report will be the focus in the morning before we have US initial jobless claims (13:30) Services PMI (14:45) and durable goods orders (15:00)

Thought of the day

A controversial tea colour chart that asks people for the perfect shade has been released on Twitter by the user ‘Yorkshire Problems’. Britain’s love of tea needs no introduction and tea drinkers are very particular about their shade. So tea makers be warned - the first time you bring back a D4 (see below) do not be surprised when you end up with third degree burns! At a minimum you will certainly not be asked to make a tea again (which at a building site is the oldest trick in the book). As you can see in the chart below there are numerous variations and one size does not fit all. At Investec we understand that no two businesses are the same, which is why we offer each client a tailored hedging strategy that suits your company’s needs. To discuss how we can provide you with a bespoke solution call the Investec Dealing team on 0800 055 6339.

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