week ahead image

03 May 2018

Week Ahead: March Mining and manufacturing production updates will provide guidance on potential Q1.18 GDP outcome

Annabel Bishop

Chief Economist

Figure 1: SA Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting dates for 2018

Currency outlook for the week ahead and foreign portfolio flows:

Figure 2: Purchasing price parity value of the rand

The rand has been fragile this week on the back of a strong lift in the greenback, following rising US treasury yields. It fell to its weakest level in around four months on Wednesday, closing at R12.70/USD. It did however manage to recover some ground on Thursday, along with other emerging currencies, after the Fed left rates unchanged, indicating a more gradual hiking cycle. At the time of writing the domestic currency was trading at R12.62/USD, having lost some ground on Friday ahead of the release of US non-farm payroll data.

In the week ahead, the rand is expected to trade in a range of R12.12/USD – R13.12/USD, R14.60/EUR - R15.60/EUR and R16.63/GBP - R17.63GBP.

Figure 3: Purchasing price parity value of the rand

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