23 Apr 2018

Week Ahead: We expect consumer confidence for Q1.18 to lift markedly and PPI to moderate to 4.0% y/y in March

Annabel Bishop

Chief Economist

Figure 1: SA Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting dates for 2018

Currency outlook for the week ahead and foreign portfolio flows:

Figure 2: Purchasing price parity value of the rand

After commencing last week at still depressed levels, over R12.00/USD the rand strengthened notably on Wednesday, after the release of better than expected domestic inflation and retail sales figures. Additionally the International Monetary Fund lifted its South African growth forecast for 2018, adding to the positive sentiment. However this momentum was not sustained as the domestic currency slipped again on Friday, piercing the R12.00/USD resistance level again, on the back of a stronger greenback.

 

Furthermore, although geopolitical tensions waned to an extent last week, they still continue to weigh on global investors, causing a risk-off sentiment to prevail. This remains a key risk for emerging market countries.

 

This week, the rand is expected to trade in a range of R11.62/USD – R12.62/USD, R14.38/EUR - R15.38/EUR and R16.50/GBP - R17.50/GBP.

Figure 3: Purchasing price parity value of the rand

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