Brexit

15 Jan 2019

Meaningful vote today

The meaningful vote on PM May’s Brexit plan takes place in Parliament today with the main vote itself scheduled between 7 and 9 pm.

There will also be various amendments to the proposal voted on prior to this with the overarching vote based on the amendments which have been passed. It remains unclear at this stage which amendments will be selected or finally voted on. Labour stalwart Hilary Benn has withdrawn his notable amendment which would reject both PM May’s deal and a no-deal Brexit and give Parliament a say in what the UK government does next, after the inclusion of the amendment threatened to bolster support for May’s deal amongst hard line Brexiteer MPs. Note that May is firmly expected to lose in tonight’s vote and the question is clearly over the extent of her defeat. Media reports this morning are gloomy with some suggesting she will do well to keep the extent of the loss to less than 100 MPs.

 

What next?

 

What happens after is unclear, though we might get some clarity this evening as PM May is expected to give a statement afterwards. Labour is expected to put forward a motion of “no-confidence” in the UK government and hence press for a General Election. However the UK government’s confidence and supply partners the DUP have said they would vote with the government in such a confidence challenge, even though they will vote against the UK government in tonight’s “meaningful vote”. After a loss tonight, May would be required to respond to Parliament within 3 sitting days (effectively Monday 21st). Media reports this morning confirm expectations that the Prime Minister is planning to force a second vote, seeking concessions from Brussels. We can also expect other forces in Parliament to seek to amend the UK government’s course whilst there will no doubt be calls for Parliamentary votes on the next steps.

 

Economic Releases

 

13.30 US PPI

15.00 EZ ECB President Draghi Speaks

16.30 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

19.00 US UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal