Today's data releasesKey levels
10:00EU trade balanceSupport
13:30US Empire ManufacturingGBP/USD1.3191
13:30US Retail SalesGBP/EUR1.1267

Market overview

Last week we learned from Trump that our relationship with the US is certainly “the highest level of special”. This was Trump’s way of telling us all that the UK-US trade deal was probably dead, given the softer Brexit stance in the white paper. However as Trump often does, he changed his tune, albeit under duress, once he was reminded that he was in the UK as a guest of the Prime Minister and the Queen!

The week ahead

The week ahead has a packed agenda, particularly on the global political stage. We are set to see an EU-China Summit take place, whilst President Trump heads to Helsinki to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. Of course, investors will also be watching closely amidst these international gatherings for any further movement on key economic issues, particularly trade, following the US’s most recent announcement of further planned tariffs on Chinese imports. Meanwhile this afternoon the IMF is set to publish its mid-year World Economic Outlook update.


In the UK, we will be keeping a very close eye on the political soap opera amidst ongoing speculation over whether PM Theresa May will face a vote of no-confidence. Reports continue to suggest that the Chair of the backbench 1922 committee, Sir Graham Brady, is not far away from holding the 48 Tory MP ‘no confidence’ letters necessary to trigger such a vote. This weekend things took a potentially more dangerous turn, as one of May’s former ministers began assembling lawmakers to vote against her Brexit plans. Steve Baker, who resigned alongside David Davis last week, is reported to be coordinating lawmakers on WhatsApp ahead of key parliamentary votes.


On the data front, as we approach the all-important 2 August Monetary Policy decision, this week’s CPI inflation (Wednesday) and labour market releases take on added significance. Our economists see CPI inflation rising to 2.7% from 2.4% in May. Tomorrow, our economists expect the labour market data to remain contained; they expect 2.4% (3m YoY) headline pay growth, down from 2.5% previously.


Finally, note that from the Bank of England we are also set to hear from Governor Carney, Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe, FCA Chief Executive Andrew Bailey and Elisabeth Stheeman, member of the Financial Policy Committee, this week. They are set to appear before the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, giving testimony on the recent Financial Stability Report.

Thought of the day

It might seem like déjà vu to have another thought of the day on the fact that football’s not coming home. But I’ve returned to work after an amazing trip to Russia and can honestly say it was an experience of a lifetime! Shame about the result but Southgate has returned the passion to international football. The Russian people couldn’t have been more welcoming, so much so I’m looking into a two week holiday to Samara. Whilst I’ve been away Theresa May has been up against it with David Davis resigning, followed by Boris Johnson and now with Trump in the UK giving an interview suggesting that she ignored his advice on Brexit it seems like things couldn’t get any worse for Theresa. To discuss the trip or what lies in store for the Prime Minister give the dealing team a call on 0207 597 4000. 

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