15 Apr 2020

Covid-19: The global economy will rise from the ashes

Patrick Lawlor

Writer, Investec Wealth & Investment

Recognising the long-term earning power of the world economy, Investec's Global Investment Strategy Group says now's the time to add risk to portfolios.

Now is the time to add risk to portfolios, according Investec Wealth & Investment’s Global Investment Strategy Group (GISG) in its latest Global Investment View.

 

The GISG believes that, after substantial falls in prices, risk assets (equities and corporate bonds in particular) have become attractively priced relative to their long-term prospects. The GISG’s view is that risk assets (equities) will outperform insurance assets (bonds) over the next 18 months.

 

This is based on the assumption that the financial system itself is resilient and that the monetary and fiscal policy measures taken by central banks and governments worldwide will substantially protect the fabric of the world economy while it is in voluntarily “shut down” (on a rolling basis) to control the viral load on healthcare systems. 

Download the Global Investment View Q2 2020

A modest tilt towards more risk; long-term earning power of the global economy recognised

“When the smoke clears, we believe the intrinsic value (long-term earnings power) of the global economy will have been only modestly impaired by this traumatic, but temporary, experience,” argues John Haynes, chair of the GISG and head of research at Investec Wealth & Investment UK.

 

“This move does not call the bottom in share markets,” he continues. “In the next couple of months, the news flow will be appalling. It will be hard to hold fast, let alone increase risk exposures in such conditions.”

 

Haynes highlights that the risk-on tilt is modest. “If equity markets fall further and our central expectation that ‘this too will pass’ is not challenged, we would expect to add further to our recommended risk budget.”

John Haynes, Chairman Investec Global Investment Strategy Group
John Haynes, Chairman, Investec Global Investment Strategy Group

This move does not call the bottom in share markets. In the next couple of months, the news flow will be appalling. It will be hard to hold fast, let alone increase risk exposures in such conditions.

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