Economic Outlook

Latest insights and analysis from Investec experts

Week ahead 27 July 2018 image

Week Ahead: A packed week of local data releases

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 27 July 2018

The domestic currency gained some momentum earlier this week, buoyed by positive news from President Ramaphosa that China has committed $14.7bn worth of funds for investment in South Africa.

Sterling Woes

Weekly Digest: Heading Off...

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 23 July 2018

When I worked in the US back in the 1980s, I was introduced to the concept of the “Acapulco Spread”. This involved putting on a very large directional trade before flying to Acapulco for the weekend.

Sterling Woes

Market Brief: GBPUSD hits 2018 low

By Kiran Russell
UK, 19 July 2018

Political uncertainty has certainly weighed heavily on the Pound this week. Adding to sterling’s woes were the June inflation numbers.

Jerome Powell

Market Brief: political May-hem weighs on the pound

By Kiran Russell
UK, 18 July 2018

Yesterday was another rollercoaster for Theresa May. The government had chosen to back all four amendments to the Customs Bill that had been tabled by Tory Eurosceptics on Monday.

Putin and Trump

Market Brief: Trump and Putin make peace?

By Kiran Russell
UK, 17 July 2018

In a remarkable news conference in Helsinki, both leaders challenged the U.S. intelligence community’s conclusion that the Kremlin meddled in the 2016 election.

Donald Trump

Weekly Digest: it's Donald Duck (again)!

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 17 July 2018

Last week I congratulated myself on being up with the latest developments on the political front, but this turned out to be somewhat premature.

Federal Reserve

Market Brief: The highest level of special

By Kiran Russell
UK, 16 July 2018

Last week we learned from Trump that our relationship with the US is certainly “the highest level of special”.

Trump at Blenheim palace

Market Brief: will Europe approve of the UK White Paper?

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 13 July 2018

The UK government has finally published its 'white paper' on the future UK-EU trading relationship.

England lose at the World Cup

Market Brief: will the Brexit white paper spring a surprise?

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 12 July 2018

The government is set to publish its Brexit White Paper later today which will expand on its three-page announcement after the Chequers Summit last Friday.

Luzhniki Stadium

Market Brief: Football's coming home

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 11 July 2018

Following the Cabinet meeting, Downing Street stated that it plans to publish the Brexit white paper on Thursday as originally planned.

Theresa May meets Sebastian Kurz

Market Brief: Boris Johnson follows David Davis

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 10 July 2018

Much like the England team, this week seems to be a crucial one for the British Government, and in particular, Prime Minister Theresa May.


Market Brief: David Davis resigns

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 9 July 2018

At Chequers on Friday, the Prime Minister appeared to have bound Cabinet opinion behind a negotiating package on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.


Market Brief: Brexit agreement odds look slim

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 3 July 2018

Yesterday saw the release of UK manufacturing PMI data. Unexpectedly, PMI inchedup to 54.4 from a consensus of 54.0.

Russia beat Spain

Market Brief: UK Q1 GDP revised upwards

By James Dazeley
UK, 2 July 2018

Sterling recovered throughout Friday returning back above 1.3200 against the dollar.

EU migrant summit

Market Brief: Migration deal over the line

By James Dazeley
UK, 29 June 2018

EU leaders managed to come to an agreement in the early hours of the morning on how to deal with rescued migrants.

US dollar

Market Brief: Dollar lovin' the summer

By James Dazeley
UK, 28 June 2018

The major story in the currency world is the US dollar and its recent strengthening.

30 Gresham Street

Market Brief: where's Boris?

By James Dazeley
UK, 26 June 2018

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Well, your second guess was close enough, it’s a third runway for Heathrow.

Investment risk

Weekly Digest: Risk assessment

UK, 25 June 2018
John Wyn-Evans talks about Investec Wealth & Investment's latest 18-month outlook of investment risk - including main threats, the probability of them taking place, and their potential impact.

Market Brief: crude oil prices rally

By James Dazeley
UK, 25 June 2018

On the last trading day of the week, markets saw a sharp lift in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent rising 4.6% and 3.4%, respectively.

30 Gresham Street

Market Brief: August goes live

By James Dazeley
UK, 22 June 2018

The sun is beaming down on the City today – perhaps the weather gods are happy with a certain BoE meeting yesterday.


Market Brief: Bank of England set to hold

By James Dazeley
UK, 21 June 2018

The pound inched higher yesterday afternoon as news broke Theresa May had managed to avoid a defeat in Parliament over her flagship Brexit bill.

Angela Merkel with Juncker and Macron

Market Brief: Big day for Theresa May

By James Dazeley
UK, 20 June 2018

The safe haven currencies benefitted yesterday as risk-aversion took grip of the FX markets.

Angela Merkel

Market Brief: New day, old news

By James Dazeley
UK, 19 June 2018

China vowed to retaliate against US companies overnight after President Donald Trump threatened to place tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese imports.

Kim and Trump

Weekly Digest: Redback Rising

By John Haynes
UK, 18 June 2018

Last week saw significant developments in geopolitics and global monetary policy – two key areas of current concern for investors.

Brexit protest

Market Brief: It's all about politics!

By James Dazeley
UK, 18 June 2018

Welcome to another week of fierce political debate, another central bank meeting and England finally performing in a major tournament.

FIFA World Cup

Market Brief: Fed set on further hikes

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 14 June 2018

As football fans the world over excitedly await the start of the “greatest show on earth”, investors were in expectant mood overnight as the US Federal Reserve delivered on their second interest rate hike of the year.

Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump

Market Brief - Trump & Kim: the beginning of a special relationship?

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 12 June 2018

Where else can we start other than yesterday’s historic meeting between Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-Un. It was nearly a year ago that Trump referred to Kim as “little rocket man.”


Market Brief - G6+1: the US stands alone

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 11 June 2018

As the UK basked in glorious sunshine over the weekend, there was a much darker cloud resting over Montreal, Canada, as the G7 summit descended into farce.

David Davis

Market Brief: Brexit bites back

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 7 June 2018

Brexit put the markets on alert following a string of negative headlines yesterday afternoon which do not make encouraging reading.


Market Brief: May wades in on Trump

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 5 June 2018

Theresa May yesterday waded in on the debate on the US trade tariffs opening up a potential political backlash.

New Italy prime minister

Weekly Digest: Mamma mia! Here we go again

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 4 June 2018

Last week, those who didn’t have the luxury of a bank holiday day off threw up their hands in disbelief at the madness of Italian politics.

Winner of the Investec Derby

Market Brief: trade wars haunt markets once again

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 4 June 2018

The third round of trade negotiations between the US and China over the weekend in Beijing ended unsuccessfully.

Investec Derby

Market Brief: who cares about Italy, when Donald is back?

By Kiran Russell
UK, 1 June 2018

If you were away on half term break with the kids and have decided to have minimal contact with the outside world, then you may not be aware that the markets were seriously spooked by a crisis in Italy.

Mariano Rajoy

Market Brief: panic over?

By Kiran Russell
UK, 31 May 2018

When I left the office on Tuesday evening it was all doom and gloom with Italian 2-year government bond yields having risen a whopping 184bps.

One year to Brexit: what’s in store for you and your business?

theresa may on the Brexit transition agreement
By Philip Shaw, chief economist
UK, 29 March 2018
With only a year to the end of the UK’s membership of the European Union, our chief economist takes stock of where Brexit negotiations are, the outlook for sterling, and key opportunities and difficulties to look out for. 

theresa may on the Brexit transition agreement





UK Spring Statement 2018: what you need to know

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Spring Statement on 13 March 2018. Find out what the update means for you, and the areas of the UK economy to keep an eye on, according to our chief economist Phil Shaw.

UK Spring Statement 2018: what you need to know

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Spring Statement on 13 March 2018. Find out what the update means for you, and the areas of the UK economy to keep an eye on, according to our chief economist Phil Shaw.


UK Autumn Budget 2017: how will it affect you?


Philip Hammond delivered the UK Budget statement on 22 November 2017. From property to capital gains, what do the reforms and policies announced mean for you and your business?

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Bank of England raises interest rate from 0.25 to 0.5%: what does it mean for you?


‘The key impact on investment portfolios is that when you raise interest rates you make other assets look a little bit less attractive’

Phil Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

‘The key impact on investment portfolios is that when you raise interest rates you make other assets look a little bit less attractive’

Phil Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaks during the quarterly Inflation Report press conference at The Bank of England on 3 November 2016 in London

First rate rise in a decade, but will Brexit battles put the brakes on second hike?

By Victoria Clarke
UK, 3 November 2017
Markets ponder timing of further rate rises after Governor Carney hints MPC would await further clarity on key elements of Brexit before enacting its next move.

Read the full article