Economic Outlook

Latest insights and analysis from Investec experts

 
World Cup ticket

Market Brief: Fed set on further hikes

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 14 June 2018
 
As football fans the world over excitedly await the start of the “greatest show on earth”, investors were in expectant mood overnight as the US Federal Reserve delivered on their second interest rate hike of the year.
World Cup ticket
Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump

Market Brief - Trump & Kim: the beginning of a special relationship?

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 12 June 2018

Where else can we start other than yesterday’s historic meeting between Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-Un. It was nearly a year ago that Trump referred to Kim as “little rocket man.”

G7

Market Brief - G6+1: the US stands alone

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 11 June 2018

As the UK basked in glorious sunshine over the weekend, there was a much darker cloud resting over Montreal, Canada, as the G7 summit descended into farce.

David Davis

Market Brief: Brexit bites back

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 7 June 2018

Brexit put the markets on alert following a string of negative headlines yesterday afternoon which do not make encouraging reading.

Trudeau

Market Brief: May wades in on Trump

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 5 June 2018

Theresa May yesterday waded in on the debate on the US trade tariffs opening up a potential political backlash.

New Italy prime minister

Weekly Digest: Mamma mia! Here we go again

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 4 June 2018

Last week, those who didn’t have the luxury of a bank holiday day off threw up their hands in disbelief at the madness of Italian politics.

Winner of the Investec Derby

Market Brief: trade wars haunt markets once again

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 4 June 2018

The third round of trade negotiations between the US and China over the weekend in Beijing ended unsuccessfully.

Investec Derby

Market Brief: who cares about Italy, when Donald is back?

By Kiran Russell
UK, 1 June 2018

If you were away on half term break with the kids and have decided to have minimal contact with the outside world, then you may not be aware that the markets were seriously spooked by a crisis in Italy.

Mariano Rajoy

Market Brief: panic over?

By Kiran Russell
UK, 31 May 2018

When I left the office on Tuesday evening it was all doom and gloom with Italian 2-year government bond yields having risen a whopping 184bps.

Trump

Market Brief: Risk off mood continues

By Kiran Russell
UK, 30 May 2018

Italian concerns mounted and markets endured a torrid day yesterday. The FTSE MIB fell 2.65%, whilst 10yr treasury bond yields rose by 48bp to 3.15%.

Cottarelli

Market Brief: crisis in Italy

By Kiran Russell
UK, 29 May 2018

The political crisis in Italy intensified last night after President Mattarella asked Carlo Cottarelli, a former IMF official, to form a technocratic government.

Trump

Market Brief: will it be a calm end to the week?

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 25 May 2018

Retail sales in the UK rose by more than expected in April with an increase of 1.6% on the month whilst ex-fuel sales rose by 1.3% month to month.

Mark Carney

Market Brief: the long weekend's not here yet

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 24 May 2018

With the long bank holiday weekend not far off, it’s easy to take your eye off the ball. However, be warned, currency markets are certainly not in wind-down mode yet.

Read the full article
cpi update

CPI update: inflation climbs to 4.5% y/y in April

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 23 May 2018

On the back of fuel price pressures and additional consumer taxes as indicated in the budget, CPI inflation rose to 4.5% y/y in April, from 3.8% y/y in March

philip-shaw-pcdesk-investec-chief-economist

Podcast: UK economy after interest rates remain unchanged

By Philip Shaw, chief economist
UK, 18 May 2018

No news, good news? Philip Shaw talks about the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates at 0.5%, their latest inflation forecast and what to expect in the medium term.

One year to Brexit: what’s in store for you and your business?

theresa may on the Brexit transition agreement
By Philip Shaw, chief economist
UK, 29 March 2018
 
With only a year to the end of the UK’s membership of the European Union, our chief economist takes stock of where Brexit negotiations are, the outlook for sterling, and key opportunities and difficulties to look out for. 

theresa may on the Brexit transition agreement
building update image

Business cycle: first quarter’s leading indicator for 2018 jumps significantly

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 22 May 2018

March’s 2018 leading indicator reading completes the quarter, and came out at 107.4

building update image

Building update: Building plans passed rose in Q1.18

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 17 May 2018

In Q1.18, the real value of building plans passed rose by 2.1% y/y, following a contraction of 1.5% y/y in Q4.17.

mpc preview image

MPC preview: an unchanged interest rate decision is likely in May

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 17 May 2018

Recent market volatility, and marked risk-off (heightened investor risk aversion), has seen foreigners particular sellers of rand equities and bonds

Retail trade sales update image

Retail trade sales update – growth rises

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 16 May 2018

Consumers benefit from past deleveraging, rising real disposable income growth and weak retail inflation.

Labour update image

Labour update: Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 26.7%

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 15 May 2018

The official unemployment rate remained unchanged at 26.7% in Q1.18, compared to Q4.17

sa gilts image

SA Gilts: major foreign sell off of EM assets

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 14 May 2018

This sees second largest one week outflow from SA's equity and giltsGlobal events continue to have a material impact on SA markets,

week ahead image

Week Ahead: We expect retail sales will lift

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 11 May 2018

Retail sales will lift by 5.1% y/y in March on the back of increased sentiment and pre-emptive buying ahead of tax lifts in April

manfacturing update image

Manufacturing update: Production fell in March

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 10 May 2018

Manufacturing production declined in March by 1.3% y/y, after five consecutive months of positive growth, including February’s mild lift of 0.5% y/y

Read the full article
mining update image

Mining update: Mining production fell by 8.4%y/y in March

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 10 May 2018

Mining production contracted in March 2018, falling by 8.4% y/y, after increasing by 2.0% y/y

Read the full article
Oil note update image

Oil note: Rising oil prices and rand weakness

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 9 May 2018

spells higher petrol prices and inflation for SA, disincentivising for an interest rate cut at the next MPC meeting.

Read the full article
Boris Johnson and Mike Pompeo

Market Brief: Trump to speak on Iran

By Ian Wilson
UK, 8 May 2018

In market news, though it feels like a lifetime ago, we need to cast our mind back to Friday afternoon when we had the release of the ever important US non-farm payrolls figures and previous months’ revisions.

rand outlook image

Rand Note: Rand plunge towards the down case in late April

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 8 May 2018

temporary shift toward the down case, as global markets recalibrate US inflation (and interest rate) expectations

Read the full article
week ahead image

Week Ahead: March Mining and manufacturing production updates will provide guidance

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 4 May 2018

The rand has been fragile this week on the back of a strong lift in the greenback, following rising US treasury yields.

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Market commentary: May 2018 image

Market commentary: May 2018

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 4 May 2018

The first quarter of 2018 can be succinctly described as one during which we witnessed the return of volatility to financial markets.

electricity update image

Electricity update: electricity production moderated to 1.2% y/y in March

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 3 May 2018

Electricity generated in March moderated to 1.2% y/y, following February’s rise of 2.0% y/y. From the consumption side electricity fell by 0.1

Read the full article
vehicle sales update image

Vehicle Sales update: New vehicle sales grew by 3.6% y/y in April

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 2 May 2018

New vehicle sales lifted by 3.6% y/y in April from 1.1% y/y in March, partly on the back of base effects. The rise in March, following three successive months of negative growth

Read the full article
pmi update image

PMI update: The PMI moved back into positive territory

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 2 May 2018

April’s PMI reading climbed 4 points to 50.9, from March’s 46.9, moving back into positive territory.

Read the full article
week ahead image

Week Ahead: We expect April’s PMI gauge to lift marginally

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 30 April 2018

The domestic currency had a dismal week, reaching its lowest level in over three months, primarily on the back of a rally in the international oil price

PPI Update image

PPI update: PPI inflation moderated in March

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 26 April 2018

Primarily on the back of fuel price relief and sustained low food price inflation, PPI inflation decelerated to 3.7% y/y in March from 4.2% y/y in February.

Leading indicators

Consumer confidence update: Consumer confidence jumps to an all-time high

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 25 April 2018

FNB/BER’s consumer confidence index (CCI) surged 34 points from -8 in Q4.17 to 26 in Q1.18, its highest level since the inception of the index.

Xi Jinping

Questions from a China sceptic

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 30 April 2018

For this week’s issue, I put myself into the shoes of a China sceptic to pose some questions to our Head of Research, John Haynes, a self-confessed and unabashed (although commendably objective!) optimist about the investment opportunities associated with the country.

week ahead image

Week Ahead: We expect consumer confidence for Q1.18 to lift markedly

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 23 April 2018

After commencing last week at still depressed levels, over R12.00/USD the rand strengthened notably on Wednesday, after the release of better than expected domestic inflation

house prices

Weekly Digest: “This time next year (Rodney), we’ll be millionaires!”

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 23 April 2018

Last week I wrote about long-term returns, referring to information from the latest Barclays Equity Gilt Study. All the data I cited was “real”, therefore taking into account inflation.

mark carney

Market Brief: a tale of two halves for the pound last week


UK, 23 April 2018

Sterling climbed to a new post-Brexit high (1.4377) in the first part of the week, before retracting to the low 1.40s.

building update image

Building update: In February, both building plans passed and completed rose on a y/y basis

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 19 April 2018

February’s real building plans passed jumped 10.0% y/y, after declining 4.0% y/y in January.

Retail update image

Retail sales update: Retail sales growth lifted to 4.9% y/y in February

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 18 April 2018

Retail sales growth jumped to 4.9% y/y in February, after logging growth of 3.3% y/y in January (revised upwards from 3.1% y/y).

cpi update

CPI update: inflation falls to 3.8% y/y in March

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 18 April 2018

CPI inflation dropped to 3.8% y/y in March from 4.0%y/y in February. Primarily on the back of a decline in fuel price pressure

Investment insights

Weekly Digest: Long-term thinking

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 16 April 2018

Short-termism gone mad: the current period is characterised by a stream of tweets, sound-bites and poorly conceived policies.

Pound GBP currency update

Market Brief: The pound rise continues

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 16 April 2018


Last week the pound was one of the top performing G10 currencies.

CPI update in South Africa

Week Ahead: CPI expected to remain relatively flat

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 13 April 2018

The rand commenced the week on a negative footing, continuing to trade at levels over R12.00/USD, after piercing this resistance barrier last Friday (6 April).

 

UK Spring Statement 2018: what you need to know

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Spring Statement on 13 March 2018. Find out what the update means for you, and the areas of the UK economy to keep an eye on, according to our chief economist Phil Shaw.

UK Spring Statement 2018: what you need to know

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Spring Statement on 13 March 2018. Find out what the update means for you, and the areas of the UK economy to keep an eye on, according to our chief economist Phil Shaw.

 
rand outlook image

Rand outlook: Trade (and other) wars, Trump and the Fed funds hike trajectory

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 13 April 2018

While South Africa has seen its currency strengthen to R11.51/USD, R14.18/EUR and R16.09/GBP this year on market euphoria ensuing from the recent political transition

Read the full article
European Central Bank

Market Brief: Dovish ECB minutes push the Euro to year lows

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 13 April 2018


Yesterday the European Central Bank expressed a deep concern about the possibility of an all-out trade war with the US.

Snow

Market Brief: Hawkish FOMC halts USD losses... temporarily

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 12 April 2018

Figures from the ONS indicate that economic activity was hit in February amid the heavy snowfall seen towards the end of the month.

mining update image

Mining update: Mining production increased to 3.1%y/y in February

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 12 April 2018

Mining production lifted in February 2018, with growth rising to 3.1% y/y, after 2.9% y/y (revised upwards from 2.4% y/y) in January.

Read the full article
Bank of England

Market Brief: ECB's Nowotny signals first rate rise in EU since 2014

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 11 April 2018

Ian McCafferty, one of the two Bank of England members to vote for a rate rise last month, told Reuters yesterday that the MPC ‘...shouldn’t dally when it comes to tightening.

Read the full article
manfacturing update image

Manufacturing update: Manufacturing production weakened to 0.6% y/y in February 2018

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 10 April 2018

Manufacturing production fell to 0.6% y/y in February, compared to January’s growth of 2.3% (revised down from 2.5% y/y).

Read the full article
Trump and Xi Jinping

Market Brief: Xi pledges greater openness amid trade wars

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 10 April 2018

A major turnaround in the risk environment was witnessed in Asia overnight, after the much-awaited speech from the Chinese president Xi Jinping.

Stefan Lovfen

Market Brief: US jobs data disappoint

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 9 April 2018

Friday saw the release of headline jobs data in the States as the non-farm payrolls number was released.

Spotify lists on the NYSE

Weekly Digest: more bark than bite?

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 9 April 2018

With the first quarter behind us, it’s a good time to review what we have learned so far this year.

macro economic outlook image

Q2.18 Macro-economic outlook 2018–2024: Global growth strengthens

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 9 April 2018

With strong global growth increasingly seen as a 2018 feature, as actual economic growth outpaces its potential

Read the full article
week ahead image

Week Ahead: Manufacturing growth expected to be higher in February

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 6 April 2018

The rand lost some momentum during the course of the week, after averaging around R11.75/USD last week

Read the full article
electricity update image

Electricity update: Both electricity production and consumption moderated in February

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 5 April 2018

Electricity production growth moderated somewhat to 2.0% y/y in February after reaching 2.4% y/y in January.

Read the full article
Xi Jinping

Market Brief: Trade War continues!

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 6 April 2018

Last night, President Trump announced to consider imposing tariffs on an additional $100bn of Chinese products, in another unhelpful escalation of the trade war with China.

NYSE

Market Commentary: March 2018

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 5 April 2018

The first quarter of 2018 can be succinctly described as one during which we witnessed the return of volatility to financial markets.

China shipping

Market Brief: China responds with tariffs, but is it a done deal?

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 5 April 2018

Wall Street overturned early losses of yesterday to close up, with the S&P 500 ending 1.2% higher.

Donald Trump

Market Brief: New day, new set of tariffs

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 4 April 2018

Last night, the US published a proposed list of tariffs which would hit $50bn worth of Chinese imports.

higher petrol and diesel

Week Ahead: Higher petrol and diesel prices for April

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 3 April 2018

After gaining some ground towards the beginning of last week, the rand depreciated slightly after the MPC rate cut announcement on Wednesday 28th.

Read the full article
SA vehicle sales update

SA Vehicle Sales update

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 3 April 2018

Domestic vehicle sales grew in March at a rate of 1.1% y/y, following a contraction of 4.0% y/y in February 2018
Read the full article

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uninstall facebook

Market Brief: Tit-for-tat tariff moves continue

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 3 April 2018

March was a rough month for global risk assets, with equity markets in particular suffering.

psce update image

PSCE update: Private credit extension growth lifts in February

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 29 March 2018

Private sector credit extension lifted to 5.7% y/y in February 2018, from 5.5% y/y in January, on the back of growth in both the corporate and household categories.

Read the full article
trade update feb 2018 image

Trade update: Trade rises to 0.4bn in February 2018 from a large deficit

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 29 March 2018

Following a larger than expected trade deficit in January, the trade account registered a small surplus in February of R0.4bn

Read the full article
PPI inflation hero image

PPI update: inflation falls sharply as rand strength lowers fuel prices, food price deflation occurs

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 29 March 2018

PPI inflation fell to 4.2% y/y in February from 5.1% y/y in January, on food price deflation, with grain mill products falling 17.2% y/y,

MPC Update image

MPC update: The SARB cuts interest rates by 25bp as risks to inflation outlook seen to be reduced

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 28 March 2018

The SARB has cut the repo rate by 25bp to 6.50% in an almost equally divided 4 –3 vote. This was in line with economists’ expectations.

christine-lagarde-listing image

Market Brief: trade wars calming?

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 27 March 2018

There are signs that the US-China trade war may well be losing some momentum as negotiators rush to try to find a compromise on reducing the US’s trade deficit with China.

Employement Update image

Employment update: Non-farm employment improves on a quarterly basis, adding 81 000 jobs in Q4.17

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 27 March 2018

According to the Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES) survey, formal non-farm employment increased by 81 000 jobs in Q4.17

MPC outlook image

MPC outlook: the tone is likely to have become more dovish now Moody’s has upgraded SA’s outlook to stable

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 26 March 2018

Moody’s recent country review of South Africa’s credit ratings saw a stabilisation at the last rung of subinvestment grade (Baa3 – see figures 3 and 4)

Xi Jinping

Weekly Digest: Trade wars - Mutually Assured Economic Destruction

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 26 March 2018

After focusing on domestic matters last week, it’s back to the international stage this week as we look at the threat from protectionism.

Credit ratings image

Credit Ratings: SA retains its investment grade status from Moody’s

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 24 March 2018

While the change to a stable outlook signals a stabilisation of the rating - an improvement as the country was placed on review for downgrade last year on 24th November

Read the full article
Sunlands lists on the NYSE

Market Brief: Tariffs up the ante

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 26 March 2018

As markets continue to react negatively to the current rising tensions around trade tariffs, US businesses have appealed to the White House to provide clarity

Week ahead - PPI image

Week Ahead: February PPI is likely to moderate to 5.0% y/y

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 23 March 2018

as a result of a continuing decrease in food price inflation and further fuel price relief

Read the full article
Retail sales update

Retail sales update: Retail sales growth moderates to 3.1% y/y in January

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 22 March 2018

Retail sales growth moderated to 3.1% y/y in January 2018, after logging growth of 5.1% y/y in December and 7.9% in November

market brief: fed hike

Market Brief: FED hikes but USD falls

By James Dazeley
UK, 22 March 2018

As widely expected, the Fed opted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 25bps to 1.50-1.75%. The tone of the statement is more positive in its tone looking forward.

sarb update image

SARB QB update: Current account deficit widens to -2.9% of GDP

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 20 March 2018

The current account deficit widened to R137bn in Q4.2017 from R99bn in Q3.2017. Expressed as a percentage of GDP, the deficit widened to -2.9%

Read the full article
cpi update

CPI update: inflation drops down to 4.0% y/y as expected

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 20 March 2018

CPI inflation came out at 4.0% y/y for February (January 4.4% y/y), below consensus of 4.2% y/y (Investec forecast 4.0% y/y)

Read the full article
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Business cycle: First leading indicator of 2018 lifts slightly

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 20 March 2018

The January 2018 leading indicator reading came out at 106.1, well up on a year ago, but slightly higher than December’s 105.8.

Brexit talks

Market Brief: Brexit transition agreement reached

by James Dazeley
UK, 20 March 2018

The Pound rallied yesterday after the UK and EU agreed terms for a Brexit transition period.

Phillip Hammond

Weekly Digest: Tiggernomics

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 20 March 2018

This week we return to more domestic matters, with a look back at last week’s Spring Statement, the new “not a budget” delivered by Chancellor Philip Hammond.

cpi outlook image

CPI outlook: tax increases to boost inflation

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 20 March 2018

South Africa has seen inflation moderate substantially over the past year, dropping by 2.6% y/y, and leading to some expectations of an interest rate cut this year.

Michel Barnier and David Davis

Market Brief: US economic data trumps White House concerns

By James Dazely
UK, 19 March 2018

Even amid political and international trade concerns, the USD ended last week strongly.

CPI week ahead

Week Ahead: February CPI is likely to moderate to 4.0% y/y

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 19 March 2018

The rand traded relatively flat against all the major currencies, towards the earlier part of last week, before losing ground against the greenback later on in the week.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Market Brief: Trump hunt may claim another victim

By Ian Wilson
UK, 16 March 2018

The political roundabout which is the Trump White House may be soon to claim another victim with talk that the President’s national security adviser may soon be replaced.

building update image

Building update: Plans passed and buildings completed fell in January 2018

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 15 March 2018

The real value of building plans passed decreased by 4.5% y/y in January 2018, after increasing 1.5% y/y in December

Theresa May

Market Brief: US retail sales fizzle

By Ian Wilson
UK, 15 March 2018

The ‘big’ news yesterday was the worse than expected retail sales figure from the US.

mining update image

Mining update: Mining production lifted by 2.4%y/y in January

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 15 March 2018

Mining production gained some momentum in January 2018, increasing by 2.4% y/y, on the back of a strong contribution from iron ore

Rex Tillerson

Market Brief: a safe Spring Statement

By Ian Wilson
UK, 14 March 2018

As nearly all of us would have seen, one way or another, UK Chancellor Philip Hammond delivered his first Spring Statement yesterday.

Manufacturing

Business confidence update: sharp rise mirrors the perceived substantial reduction in political uncertainty

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 14 March 2018

The RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) rose to 45 in Q1.18 from 34 in Q4.17. The survey was taken between 29th January and 5th of March 2018

Read the full article
Manufacturing update

Manufacturing update: Manufacturing production lifted 2.5% y/y in January 2018

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 13 March 2018

Manufacturing production lifted in January to 2.5% y/y, following a 1.8% y/y (revised downwards from 2.0%y/y) rise in December. In line with the market consensus.

Read the full article
Weekly Digest: letter from Italy

Weekly Digest: Letter from Italy

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 12 March 2018

This week’s Digest comes to you from Italy, so it seems appropriate to pass some comment on the political situation here.

Winter homes in the UK

Market Brief: huge non-farms, quiet markets ahead?

By Ian Wilson
UK, 12 March 2018

Without a doubt, Friday’s big news was the much better than expected headline Non-farm payrolls figure.

Rand outlook

Week Ahead: January updates for mining and manufacturing production

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 9 March 2018

Rand movements during the week were influenced by the weakening dollar, which was driven by fears over President Trump’s protectionist trade policy stance.

mario draghi

Market Brief: ECB’s forward guidance in focus

By Emily Maguire
UK, 8 March 2018

The ECB’s Governing Council convenes today for its second meeting of the year. The main area of focus will be whether there are any changes to its “forward guidance”.

jerome powell

Market Commentary: March 2018

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 7 March 2018

2018 began much as 2017 ended, with good gains for investors willing to accept a modicum of risk. Once again, however, there was little sense of euphoria.

Trump loses another key advisor

Market Brief: Trump loses another key advisor

By Emily Maguire
UK, 7 March 2018

After mounting speculation yesterday around Gary Cohn’s position in Donald Trump’s government, the US President’s top economic advisor resigned last night.

Read the article
italian elections

Market Brief: Italian uncertainty continues

By Emily Maguire
UK, 6 March 2018

Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned as leader of the Democratic Party yesterday following Sunday’s general election.

gdp update image

GDP Update: Economic activity lifts above expectations

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 6 March 2018

GDP (measured by production) for Q4.17 grew on a quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted annualised (qqsaa) basis to 3.1%

Week ahead gdp group

Week Ahead: GDP growth likely to moderate in Q4.17

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 5 March 2018

The rand lost some of its momentum last week, along with other emerging market currencies, depreciating by 3.2%, evidencing recent volatility.

Trade wars

Weekly Digest: inflation returns (part 2) and trade wars

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 5 March 2018

Because the threat of inflation (in the US) and its consequences has been the primary mover of markets recently, I am returning to the subject for a second week.

There May delivers Brexit speech

Market Brief: Italian election, Brexit vision and trade wars!

By Emily Maguire
UK, 5 March 2018

It’s worth beginning this week with a recap on Theresa May’s Brexit speech on Friday, as this was keenly anticipated throughout last week.

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Vehicle Sales update: New vehicle sales logged an annual decline in February

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 2 March 2018

Domestic vehicle sales growth contracted in February at a rate of 3.8% y/y, following a contraction of 9.2% y/y in January 2018

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UK Autumn Budget 2017: how will it affect you?

 

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Budget statement on 22 November 2017. From property to capital gains, what do the reforms and policies announced mean for you and your business?

Read the full article

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Budget statement on 22 November 2017. From property to capital gains, what do the reforms and policies announced mean for you and your business?

Read the full article
 

Bank of England raises interest rate from 0.25 to 0.5%: what does it mean for you?

 

‘The key impact on investment portfolios is that when you raise interest rates you make other assets look a little bit less attractive’

Phil Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

‘The key impact on investment portfolios is that when you raise interest rates you make other assets look a little bit less attractive’

Phil Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

 
Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaks during the quarterly Inflation Report press conference at The Bank of England on 3 November 2016 in London

First rate rise in a decade, but will Brexit battles put the brakes on second hike?

By Victoria Clarke
UK, 3 November 2017
Markets ponder timing of further rate rises after Governor Carney hints MPC would await further clarity on key elements of Brexit before enacting its next move.

Read the full article