Economic Outlook

Latest insights and analysis from Investec experts

 

Market Brief: US government shutdown concerns grow

By James Dazeley
UK, 19 January 2018

The US dollar continued its recent weakness yesterday with concerns of a US government shutdown looming.

Market Brief: GBP/USD rollercoaster overnight

By James Dazeley
UK, 18 January 2018

GBP/USD continued its recent move higher last night, hitting a high of 1.3942.

Retail sales update: Black Friday sees growth exceed expectations

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 17 November 2018

The November retail sales growth outcome of 8.2% y/y exceeded market expectations of 3.5% y/y.

Market Brief: Euro hits fresh high against the dollar

By James Dazeley
UK, 18 January 2018

Yesterday, UK CPI inflation came in as expected at 3.0% yoy in December (consensus 3.0%, Investec 3.0%), slowing marginally from the 3.1% seen in November.

Mining update: Higher commodity prices continue to support the recovery in mining production

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 16 January 2018

Mining production growth lifted to 6.5% y/y in November from 5.2% y/y in October.

Read the full article

Interest rate outlook: the monetary policy outlook has likely become neutral

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 16 January 2018

South Africa saw economic growth of 2.0% to 3.0% in the last two quarters of published data, while the nominal trade weighted rand has strengthened by about 10%

Market Brief: All eyes on UK CPI

By James Dazeley
UK, 16 January 2018

The USD continued to be sold for a sixth consecutive week yesterday as traders assessed the possibility for a hawkish policy shift at the European Central Bank.

Weekly Digest: A deeper dive into seven-year equity market performance

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 16 January 2018

We can never emphasise enough the contribution of compounded dividends to investment returns – a 33% return over the past seven years.

Market Brief: GBP/USD hits post-Brexit high!

By James Dazeley
UK, 15 January 2018

The USD has started the week on the back foot, with the USD index extending the losses it experienced on Friday.

Week Ahead: SARB likely to lower its CPI inflation projections

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 12 January 2018

Compared to last Friday’s levels of R12.34/US$, the rand is little changed at R12.39/US$ at the end of this week, having depreciated by just 0.6% over the last five days.

Market Brief: Euro takes strength from ECB minute

By Emily Maguire
UK, 12 January 2018

The euro gained some strength against the dollar yesterday as the market digested the ECB’s meeting accounts from their December 14th meeting.

Risk update: will the market optimism on the outcome of the ANC elections be sustained?

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 12 January 2018

After late December/early January’s marked appreciation the rand, and SA’s other financial market indicators, have not seen the rally continue, but have not meaningfully lost ground either.

Market Brief: UK manufacturing sets fresh record

By Emily Maguire
UK, 11 January 2018

Britain’s manufacturing sector posted its seventh month of consecutive gains yesterday for the first time on record rising 0.4% on the month.

Manufacturing update: Manufacturing production continued to lift

Annabel Bishop
SA, 11 January 2018

Manufacturing production increased by 1.7% y/y in November following a 2.3% y/y rise in October.

Market Brief: British businesses in subdued mood

Emily Maguire
UK, 10 January 2018

According to the British Chambers of Commerce, British businesses are in a subdued mood ahead of Brexit and the economy could suffer as a result.

Market Brief: May deals a dud on Cabinet reshuffle

By Emily Maguire
UK, 9 January 2018

Theresa May suffered a setback yesterday when her attempts to conduct a Cabinet reshuffle were hampered by a combination of miscommunication with central office and ministers refusing to move from their posts.

Vehicle Sales update: New vehicle sales growth recovered modestly

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 9 January 2018

New vehicle sales contracted by 2.4% y/y in December compared to an increase of 7.2% y/y in November.

Weekly Digest: Plus ça change…

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 8 January 2018

The UK Gilt market offers little in the way of income, with the 10-year Gilt currently yielding just 1.23%.

Market Commentary: January 2018

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 8 January 2018

The fear factor associated with the rise of populism and the shift in global monetary policy has diminished over the last six months, allowing risk assets to continue their upward path.

Market Brief: Cabinet reshuffle on the cards

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 8 January 2018

In British politics, the expectation is that we will see a Cabinet reshuffle this week, perhaps as early as today.

Macro-economic outlook 2018–2023: Global growth is expected to strengthen somewhat further

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 5 January 2018

South Africa has seen a substantial improvement in the exchange rate, bond yields and JSE on the outcome of 2017’s ANC elective conference in late December, with the rand strengthening.

Market Brief: Eurozone economy continues to prosper!

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 5 January 2018

The Eurozone economy closed out the year with the strongest Composite PMI reading in nearly seven years, driven by accelerating services and manufacturing activity across all major economies.

Week Ahead: Manufacturing sector to derive support from continued lift in global activity and sustained positive momentum in global trade

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 5 January 2018

In December, the rand was the best performer among a basket of 24 emerging market currencies, having gained 10.9%.

Electricity update: electricity production and consumption lift in November

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 4 January 2018

In November, electricity production increased by 1.7% y/y following a rise of 1.3% y/y in October. Electricity consumption lifted by 0.9% y/y compared to 0.0% y/y in October.

UK Autumn Budget 2017: how will it affect you?

 

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Budget statement on 22 November 2017. From property to capital gains, what do the reforms and policies announced mean for you and your business?

Read the full article

Philip Hammond delivered the UK Budget statement on 22 November 2017. From property to capital gains, what do the reforms and policies announced mean for you and your business?

Read the full article
 

Market Brief: Britain’s construction sector slows

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 4 January 2018

Growth in Britain’s construction sector slowed last month for the first time since September, with weaker growth in house building, a fall in commercial building and stagnating infrastructure work.

Market Brief: Eurozone manufacturing sector hits record highs

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 3 January 2018

Yesterday saw the release of UK PMI Manufacturing data: the December index fell by more than expected to 56.3 from 58.2 in November (consensus 57.9, Investec 58.0).

Market Brief: Dollar weaker across the board

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 2 January 2018

The markets have started rather slowly today as traders seem to be staying in the holiday mood.

Market Brief: Happy New Year

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 29 December 2017

There’s plenty to reflect on these past 12 months which began with the inauguration of an unlikely president, UK servicing notice on its EU membership and a UK general election.

Market Brief: the Dollar heads for its worst year in a decade

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 28 December 2017

We are anticipating another quiet day in the market today as liquidity and data are both pretty thin.

Market Brief: Markets in Christmas mode

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 27 December 2017

Merry Christmas all and welcome to the last working week of 2017. Last week seems like quite some time ago so let’s recap on some of the key events.

Market Brief: Christmas Cheer for Hammond

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 22 December 2017

Yesterday the main UK public sector net borrowing measure (PSNBX) came in close to expectations at £8.7bn in November, some £0.2bn down on year-ago levels.

Market Brief: lots of US data to watch

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 21 December 2017

I am going to take a moment to reflect on what has been another interesting year for currencies with Article 50
being triggered, a snap election being called and Brexit divorce bill being agreed (well, so we think).

Market Brief: 5 days to Christmas and Barnier plays Scrooge

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 20 December 2017

Michel Barnier is clearly not in the festive spirit! His ‘Bah Humbug’ comments noted “there is not a single trade agreement that is open to financial services”, meaning a bespoke deal for London’s financial sector is firmly off the agenda.

Market Brief: the Santa rally hits Southern Africa and Wall Street

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 19 December 2017

Just 6 days until Christmas and Santa’s pre-Christmas soiree in Southern Africa seems to continue. Not long ago, Zimbabwean President Robert ‘Bob’ Mugabe lost power after nearly 4 decades in charge.

Market Brief: May hoping for festive cheer

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 18 December 2017

As Christmas fast approaches and the party season gets into full swing, Theresa May will be hoping for some festive cheer after a challenging month so far on the Brexit front.

Weekly Digest: 'Try again. Fail again. Fail better.'

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 18 December 2017

When I was at school I received this Maths report: 'Exam mark: 123 out of 125; Position: 1=; Comment: Could do better.'

Market Brief: Will Europe open the door for the next stage of Brexit talks?

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 15 December 2017

On central bank meetings yesterday, the ECB’s Governing Council kept its key policy rates unchanged as expected.

PPI update: PPI inflation lifts slightly in November on an uptick in food price inflation

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 14 December 2017

In contrast to market expectations of a moderation in PPI inflation to 4.9% y/y in November from 5.0% y/y previously, the actual outcome showed a lift to 5.1% y/y.

SARB QB update: Current account deficit narrows by less than expected to 2.3% of GDP in Q3.17

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 14 December 2017

The current account deficit narrowed only slightly in Q3.17 to 2.3% of GDP from -2.4% in Q2.17, against consensus expectations of a deficit of 2.0%.

Market Brief: May loses her way

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 14 December 2017

The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp as expected, on a 7-2 vote with members Kashkari and Evans dissenting.

Market Brief: Yellen to deliver her last US rate hike

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 13 December 2017

We have a pretty busy day ahead with US inflation and the long-awaited FOMC meeting, which also includes Yellen’s last press conference.

Retail sales update: October retail sales growth slows ahead of the festive season

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 13 December 2017

Retail sales growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in October from 5.7% y/y in September (revised up from 5.4% y/y). The outcome was lower than consensus of 5.3% y/y.
Read the full article

CPI Update: CPI inflation moderates in November to 4.6% y/y from a prior 4.8% y/y on a lower fuel price increase

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 13 December 2017

The rate of CPI inflation slowed to 4.6% y/y in November from 4.8% y/y in October. The rate slowed by more than market expectations of 4.7% y/y.

Employment update: Non-farm employment declines for the third consecutive quarter amid muted economic activity

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 12 December 2017

According to the Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES) survey, formal non-farm employment decreased by 31 000 jobs in Q3.17

Read the full article

Manufacturing update: Manufacturing production lifts at the start of the Q4.17 period

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 12 December 2017

Manufacturing production increased by 2.2% y/y in October after declining by 1.7% y/y in September.

Market Brief: a 'gentleman's agreement' for the UK

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 12 December 2017

We had a quiet day in markets yesterday ahead of the burst of central bank meetings and data later this week.

Weekly Digest: 11 December

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 12 December 2017

Last week, our two main strategy committees convened.

Market Brief: Brexit breakthrough ahead of EC Meeting

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 11 December 2017

Brexit negotiations had a rollercoaster few days last week. PM May met with EU’s Juncker on Monday looking for agreement to move Brexit negotiations on to the next stage and start trade and transitional phase discussions.

Market Brief: May gets a breakthrough

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 8 December 2017

News this morning has shown that an agreement between the UK and the European Union has been struck ahead of next week’s EU leaders’ Summit.

Week Ahead: Economic updates estimated to show relatively modest rates of economic activity and slower rates of inflation

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 8 December 2017

Over the last week the rand has strengthened by a modest 0.8% whilst most emerging market currencies weakened in line with a stronger US$.

Mining update: Mining production lifts at the start of Q4.17

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 7 December 2017

In October, mining production lifted by 5.2% y/y compared to a contraction of 0.3% y/y in September.

Market Brief: UK Government limping along

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 7 December 2017

A session in Parliament yesterday followed by PMQs did very little to calm nerves that the prospect of making progress on Brexit at next week’s EU Summit looks to be diminishing.

Market Brief: Poor UK data sets the tone

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 6 December 2017

The pound started off yesterday on the back foot following the release of poor data.

GDP Update: Q3.17 GDP growth supported by the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 5 December 2017

GDO growth eased to 2.0% y/y quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted annualised (qqsaa) in Q3 '17, from 2.8% qqsaa (revised up from 2.5%) in Q2 '17.

Market Brief: Brexit deal stumbles at Irish border hurdle

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 5 December 2017

Theresa May travelled to Brussels yesterday to secure a deal with Jean-Claude Juncker but her plans were thwarted by Arlene Foster and the DUP.

Rand note: the domestic currency has strengthened on growing market expectations

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 5 December 2017

The domestic currency has strengthened on relief SA was not downgraded by Moody's, growing market expectations of a Cyril Ramaphosa ANC election win and the fiscal consolidation newly mooted by National Treasury

Weekly Digest: updating Brexit and Bitcoin

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 4 December 2017

I woke up this morning to what sounded like an optimistic outlook on Mrs May’s latest visit to Brussels, but the mood had already soured by the time I reached my desk.

Market Brief: Trump gets his way ... at last!

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 4 December 2017

News over the weekend ignited what already would’ve been action-packed. Equity markets in the US are expected to surge today with US indices flying to record levels following the news that the tax cuts in Donald Trump’s long-awaited bill were passed in the Senate.

Week Ahead: Momentum in economic activity is expected to have remained positive

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 1 December 2017

The rand has been the best performer this week amongst a basket of 24 emerging market currencies.

Trade update: Trade balance remains in surplus in October and in the year to date

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 1 December 2017

In contrast to market expectations of a trade deficit of R5.5bn in October, the trade balance remained in surplus

Market Brief: Sterling marches on

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 1 December 2017

All the action overnight was in the US after Republicans were left scrambling to salvage the Senate tax overhaul bill.

PPI update: Continued food price disinflation underpinned the moderation in PPI inflation

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 30 November 2017

PPI inflation moderated to 5.0% y/y in October from 5.2% y/y in September.

Market Brief: Brexit optimism lifts the pound

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 30 November 2017

There was some troubling news from the UK high street this morning as November’s GfK consumer confidence measure edged down slightly more than expected to -12 from October’s -10.

PSCE update: Private credit extension moderates in October on account of slower corporate credit growth

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 29 November 2017

Private sector credit extension moderated to 5.4% y/y in October from 5.5% y/y in September, mainly on account of lower rates of credit extended to corporates.

Market Brief: Deadlock broken in Brexit talks

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 29 November 2017

Media reports this morning suggest that the UK government has reached an agreement-in-principle with the EU over its future financial obligations to the bloc.

Market Brief: UK banks pass health checks

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 28 November 2017

The Bank of England began proceedings early today with the release of it biannual assessment of the resilience of the UK banking system.

Credit Rating downgrades

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 27 November 2017

As expected SA was downgraded on Friday from investment to sub-investment grade, and out of the three options it was Standard & Poor’s who delivered the downgrade.

Weekly Digest: old misery guts

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 27 November 2017

A colleague who returned today from a week in Tenerife (average daytime temperature in the mid-to-high twenties) declared this to be the “most miserable time of the year”. He should try being a Welsh Evertonian who is also an England cricket supporter.

Week Ahead: Trade account forecast to register a deficit for October on seasonal factors

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 27 November 2017

The rand recovered at the start of the week to R13.73/USD from a closing level of R14.12/USD on Friday.

Market Brief: Germany united?

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 27 November 2017

The big headlines this weekend lie outside the UK after Germany edged closer to forming a new government as Chancellor Angela Merkel began haggling with the Social Democrats over the terms of a potential partnership.

Market Brief: Markets take a breather

By Emily Maguire
UK, 24 November 2017

Currency markets were largely range-bound yesterday with the US on holiday celebrating Thanksgiving.

MPC update: SARB "prudently” keeps the repo rate unchanged at 6.75% ahead of significant event risks

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 23 November 2017

With upside risks to the inflation outlook still prevailing, the SARB MPC unanimously “decided that it would be prudent to maintain the current stance of monetary policy at this stage.”

Bank of England raises interest rate from 0.25 to 0.5%: what does it mean for you?

 

‘The key impact on investment portfolios is that when you raise interest rates you make other assets look a little bit less attractive’

Phil Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

‘The key impact on investment portfolios is that when you raise interest rates you make other assets look a little bit less attractive’

Phil Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

 
Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaks during the quarterly Inflation Report press conference at The Bank of England on 3 November 2016 in London

First rate rise in a decade, but will Brexit battles put the brakes on second hike?

By Victoria Clarke
UK, 3 November 2017
Markets ponder timing of further rate rises after Governor Carney hints MPC would await further clarity on key elements of Brexit before enacting its next move.

Market Brief: Hammond survives Budget unveiling

By Emily Maguire
UK, 23 November 2017

Yesterday Chancellor Phillip Hammond delivered his budget and on our calculations, has delivered the most expansionary budgetary exercise since Alistair Darling cut VAT in the late 2008 pre-budget report.

Market Brief: Budget day!

By Emily Maguire
UK, 22 November 2017

Theresa May’s crisis-hit government is looking to today's Budget as a shot at redemption to find fresh popularity with voters.

CPI Update: CPI inflation moderates to 4.8% y/y

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 22 November 2017

Following the temporary lift in CPI inflation in August (4.8% y/y) and September (5.1% y/y), primarily on fuel price pressures, the rate moderated to 4.8% y/y in October. The outcome was in line with consensus.

Market Brief: UK willing to improve Brexit bill offer

By Emily Maguire
UK, 21 November 2017

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s future is hanging in the balance and she is facing perhaps the biggest challenge of her political career.

MPC preview: Repo rate to remain unchanged at 6.75%

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 20 November 2017

At the last MPC meeting in September the SARB outlined heightened upside risks to the inflation profile over the next 12-18 months that included the rand exchange rate, the pace of global monetary policy normalisation and electricity tariffs.

Weekly Digest: A rose by any other name …

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 20 November 2017

The High Yield sector is making headlines again. It has been under a bit of pressure, partly owing to poor performance by some issuers, but also owing to uncertainties around US tax reforms.

Market Brief: Euro sinks on Merkel's failure to form coalition

By Emily Maguire
UK, 20 November 2017

This morning we awoke to news from Germany that Chancellor Angela Merkel says her efforts to form a three-way coalition have failed.

Market Brief: UK retail sales fall for the first time since 2013

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 17 November 2017

Yesterday morning UK retail sales were released which showed that volumes as measured by the ONS grew by 0.3% in October following a downwardly revised 0.7% contraction in September.

Week Ahead: domestic factors to dominate in the week ahead

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 17 November 2017

The rand gained 2.78% over the last five days to currently trade at R13.98/USD, with net non-resident purchases of SA equities and bonds in the week so far of R3.3bn and R2.0bn respectively.

Market Brief: Britain braces for poor retail sales

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 16 November 2017

Figures released yesterday showed that UK labour market remained steady. The unemployment rate remained firm at a joint 42-year low of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2017.

Market Brief: UK CPI Inflation misses expectation

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 15 November 2017

The Pound continued its losing streak this week as UK headline CPI inflation data missed the consensus of 3.1% and remained steady at 3% in October.

Retail sales update: Retail sales growth lifted in Q3.17

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 15 November 2017

Retail sales growth increased at the same rate of 5.4% y/y in September as in August, with the growth exceeding the consensus forecast of 4.5% y/y.

Market Brief: MPs to review EU withdrawal Bill

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 14 November 2017

Sterling struggled yesterday as further political uncertainty plagued the market, hitting a low of 1.3062 against the USD and 1.1207 against the Euro.

Weekly Digest: will this wind…?

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 13 November 2017

There is no law that places a time limit on market cycles, nor on the economic cycles that tend to drive markets.

Market Brief: pressure mounts for Theresa May

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 13 November 2017

Friday saw the release of industrial output for September. The results were positive having risen by 0.7% against a market consensus and Investec expectation of 0.3%.

Week Ahead: rand continues to weaken on fears of sub-investment grade credit ratings

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 10 November 2017

Opening at R14.19/USD, R16.49/EUR and R18.57/GBP, the rand strengthened mid-week against the US dollar as the greenback softened on further news of delays in US tax reform.

Market Brief: is Prime Minister May ready to pay?

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 10 November 2017

Theresa May is reportedly ready to increase Britain’s financial settlement offer.

Market Brief: 6th round of Brexit talks begin today

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 9 November 2017

International Development Secretary Priti Patel offered her resignation, shortly after she admitted to holding a series of unauthorised meetings with Israeli officials without the PM’s knowledge.

Market Commentary: November 2017

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 10 November 2017

Stock markets have continued to make steady progress over the six month period under review, with many, notably in the US, making several new all-time highs.

Market Brief: Happy Trumpiversary!

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 8 November 2017

Overnight headlines focused on Trump’s address at the National Assembly in South Korea.

Market Brief: UK retail sales downbeat

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 7 November 2017

The British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) retail sales monitor delivered a downbeat picture of UK retail spending in October.

Weekly Digest: ten years on; one year on

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 6 November 2017

Last Friday, an investment club in Sheffield was treated to something not witnessed in the last four years – a fully caffeinated Head of Investment Strategy.

Market Brief: Trump on tour as sterling falls back

By Sana Hanassi-Savari
UK, 6 November 2017

In the UK last week, the Bank of England (BoE) raised rates by 25bp to 0.50% but the move was delivered with a dovish statement which caused expectations of future rate rises to be revised down; as a result sterling fell back, reversing recent moves.

Week Ahead: rand will take direction from rating agencies & international events

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 3 November 2017

In the early part of this week the rand continued to factor in likely credit rating downgrades on the back of the recent Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).

Market Brief: Bank hikes but sterling plummets

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 3 November 2017

As I type, Sterling is currently trading at 1.3040 and 1.1200 against the Dollar and Euro respectively – a near 2% fall in last 24 hours.

Market Brief: Long-awaited UK rate hike looms today

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 2 November 2017

Super Thursday has finally arrived. The Bank of England is set to raise interest rates by 0.25% at noon today for the first time in ten years.

PMI update: PMI reflects a slower pace of contraction in manufacturing activity in October

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 1 November 2017

The PMI survey reflected a continued contraction in manufacturing activity in October, albeit at a slower pace.

Market Brief: Former Trump staffers indicted

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 31 October 2017

Away from the markets, news yesterday centred around the Russian investigation where two key staffers during Trump’s presidential campaign were indicted on charges relating to the Russian influence on the Presidential election.

Trade update: Trade surplus narrows to R4.0bn in September from a prior R6.0bn

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 31 October 2017

The trade surplus narrowed to R4.0bn in September from R6.0bn in August, as exports contracted by 1.6% m/m to R101.8bn whilst imports lifted by 0.4% m/m to R97.8bn.

Labour update: Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 27.7% in Q3.17

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 31 October 2017

In Q3.17, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 27.7% for the second consecutive quarter and therefore remained at the highest level since 2003.

Weekly Digest: Super Mario strikes again

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 30 October 2017

I have touched on the subject of monetary policy a couple of times in recent weeks. Today I am returning to the topic.

PSCE update: Private credit extension moderates in September with the rates of both household and corporate credit slowing

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 30 October 2017

Private sector credit extension moderated to 5.6% y/y in September from 6.0% y/y in August.

Market Brief: Key week ahead for both sides of the pond

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 30 October 2017

With plenty to digest this week, we begin at home with focus firmly on ‘Super’ Thursday where we expect the MPC to raise the Bank rate for the first time in over 10 years, by 25bps to 0.50%.

Week Ahead: Trade, private sector credit and PMI updates to all reflect subdued domestic demand conditions

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 27 October 2017

The rand extended last week’s post Cabinet reshuffle depreciative trend by weakening by a further 3.9% this week.

Market Brief: Super Mario and the ECB cause the Euro to weaken

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 27 October 2017

Yesterday, the CBI reported that UK retail sales volumes had fallen at the quickest rate since March 2009, with the headline balance dropping to -36% (consensus +14%) from September’s two-year high of +42%.

PPI update: Higher fuel price inflation lifts PPI inflation for the second consecutive month

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 26 October 2017

PPI inflation rose at a rate of 5.2% y/y in September compared to 4.2% y/y in August, mainly on account of the petroleum price component.

Market Brief: Super Mario bothers to tell the QE taper plan!

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 26 October 2017

The pound rallied over a cent against the euro and dollar yesterday morning following the much anticipated UK GDP release.

Market Brief: could UK GDP growth be the lowest in the G7?

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 25 October 2017

Yesterday's data calendar was dominated by Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) in Europe and the US.

MTBPS Review: Retreat from planned fiscal consolidation

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 25 October 2017

The 2017 Budget identified the main risks to the fiscal position over the medium term

Market Brief: Markets nervous ahead of Thursday's ECB

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 24 October 2017

GBPEUR and GBPUSD traded in relatively tight ranges in what was an uneventful trading session yesterday, as markets remain braced for the ECB on Thursday.

Weekly Digest: Chinese Party Congress

By John Haynes
UK, 23 October 2017

Even amidst the busiest period for company reporting in Europe and America, the most important event scheduled for this week is the conclusion of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

Market Brief: UK borrowing figures help the pound

By Kevin Musisi
UK, 23 October 2017
Last week ended with the pound on the front foot, as the UK public sector net borrowing figures for September showed the headline borrowing measure had come in below market expectations at £5.9bn.

Week Ahead: Weak economic growth backdrop expected to result in a deterioration in fiscal indicators in 2017/18

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 20 October 2017

Most emerging market currencies weakened over the course of the week but the rand was the worst performer.

Market Brief: Dollar finds some support

By Emily Maguire
UK, 20 October 2017

A vote on a budget resolution passed the Senate last night, with lawmakers voting 51-49 in favour of the proposal.

MTBPS Preview: Commitment to medium term fiscal consolidation expected to be maintained against risk of credit rating downgrades

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 20 October 2017

The 2017 Budget identified the main risks to the fiscal position over the medium term

Market Brief: Can EU Summit deliver any progress?!

By Emily Maguire
UK, 19 October 2017

Yesterday morning’s labour market data showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in the three months to August, in line with both consensus and Investec expectations.

CPI Update: CPI inflation lifts in September on fuel price pressures but is expected to moderate into year end

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 18 October 2017

CPI inflation rose for the second consecutive month to 5.1% y/y in September from 4.8% y/y in August and from 4.6% y/y in July.

Retail sales update: Retail sales growth rebounds in August but underlying consumer activity expected to remain restrained

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 18 October 2017

Retail sales growth accelerated to 5.5% y/y in August from 1.6% y/y (revised from 1.8% y/y previously) in July.

Market Brief: Interest rate hike still on the table after inflation data

By Emily Maguire
UK, 18 October 2017

The markets delivered a surprise yesterday when UK inflation numbers came in on consensus at 3% in what should have been a positive for the pound as it reinforces the view that an interest rate hike is coming.

Rand outlook: fluctuations in global market expectations of US rate hikes

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 18 October 2017

Favourable financial market conditions have assisted in the strengthening of the global economy, on still very accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies (AEs), a bull run in equity markets and low bond yields (with low market volatility).

Market Brief: May backing down from Brexit showdown

By Emily Maguire
UK, 17 October 2017

In a further sign that Brexit bad news is not totally priced in to the markets, yesterday afternoon saw Cable drop half a cent on a piece of news indicating that the negotiations were heading for a catastrophic breakdown unless the European Union signals this week that it will allow talks to move on to trade.

Weekly Digest: Hurricane watch

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 16 October 2017

Most British people who were around at the time can remember what they were up to thirty years ago today when they woke up to the destruction caused by the Great Storm that swept across the south of the country.

Market Brief: Brexit stand-off

By Emily Maguire
UK, 16 October 2017

On Friday evening Bank of England governor Mark Carney gave an interview in which he warned that the UK economy is running out of both spare capacity and tolerance of above target inflation.

Mining update: Mining production growth lifts in August

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 12 October 2017

Mining production increased by 6.9% y/y in August following a rise of 1.9% y/y in July (revised from 0.9% y/y previously), but overall performance remains restricted by the prevailing policy environment.

Market Brief: the minutes to the September FOMC were published last night.

Lewis Thorn
UK, 12 October 2017

They show that the September discussion focused on two issues: the likely impactof the recent hurricanes and also recent trends in inflation and the outlook for price growth.

Market Brief: Is November a done deal?

Lewis Thorn
UK, 11 October 2017

Yesterday the UK Office for National Statistics published the latest data on the performance of the UK’s industrial and construction sectors and the UK’s net trade balance.

Manufacturing update: Manufacturing production increased in August but improvement was not broad-based across the industries.

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 10 October 2017

Manufacturing production registered growth of 1.5% y/y in August, after having contracted in the preceding four consecutive months.

Market Brief: Yesterday the Office for National Statistics admitted an error in data published last week.

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 10 October 2017

The ONS initially said that unit labour costs increased by 1.6% year on year in the second quarter of 2017 – this figure has been corrected to 2.4%.

Weekly Digest: Crisis? What crisis?

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 9 October 2017

The cover of Supertramp’s 1975 album 'Crisis? What crisis?' features a man sitting on wasteland basking in the sun with a cocktail against the background of a bleak, black and white, industrial scene.

Market Brief: non-farm confusion

By Lewis Thorn
UK, 9 October 2017

Friday's non-farm payroll report was heavily affected by the US hurricane season - shredding a net 33k jobs.

Market Commentary: October 2017

By John Wyn-Evans
UK 9 October 2017

An old stock market aphorism suggests that investors should “Sell in May, go away, and don’t come back till St Leger’s Day.”

Week Ahead: Manufacturing production likely to continue underperforming

By Annabel Bishop
SA 6 October 2017

The US$ index steadily gained this week reaching its highest level since late July. The recent batch of US economic data releases that have signalled resilient conditions, and expectations of the Trump administration pushing through tax reform

Market Brief: pressure mounts for May

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 6 October 2017

Doom and gloom for the Pound continues as reports emerge of a diminishing budgetary ‘war chest’. The reports are that as much as two thirds of the £26bn margin that the Chancellor had saved himself as a ‘Brexit buffer’ are set to be eroded.

Market Brief: Theresa's May-d her bed

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 5 October 2017

Yesterday’s UK services PMI data witnessed a better than expected reading, with the index rising to 53.6 from 53.2, beating the market expectations of a steady figure (Investec 53.7).

Market Brief: Yellen's replacements revealed

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 4 October 2017

The Dollar took a step back from a six-week high against a basket of currencies overnight on speculation that President Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair could a be a less hawkish candidate than some had expected.

Market Brief: Markets await Financial Policy Committee statement

By Shaun Garrett
UK, 3 October 2017

Overnight the Euro dropped to a six-week low as Sunday’s independence vote in Catalonia continued to unsettle the markets.

Vehicle Sales update: New vehicle sales growth increased throughout Q3.17 but the underlying performance remains subdued

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 2 October 2017

New vehicle sales increased by 6.3% y/y in September following a rise of 6.7% y/y in August and 4.0% y/y in July.

Weekly Digest: It was twenty years ago today…

By John Wyn-Evans
UK, 2 October 2017

Last week, it was the twentieth anniversary of the Bank of England’s effective independence.

PMI update: Manufacturing sector activity weakened in Q3.17

By Annabel Bishop
SA, 2 October 2017

The manufacturing PMI increased to 44.9 in September from 44.0 in August.