Latest insights
Thoughts of an FX Trader - ‘Twas the poem before Christmas
For the last Thoughts of a Trader in 2023, Investec’s Head of FX and Interest Rates Trading Demitri Theodosiou offers us a poetic summary of the last 12 months.
Inflation Insights
Inflation has spiked to multi-decade highs globally, prompting central banks to raise interest rates in order to tame it. Variations between central banks’ paths have in turn been the key driver in foreign exchange markets. But inflation has already turned in major economies and is looking set to continue to fall sharply in the year ahead.
The Investec trading team, with the help of our economists, take a look at what the drivers of inflation have been, why it’s likely to fall, and how that might affect interest rates and the world of FX going forward.
Podcast series: a view from the Trading Desk
29 September 2022
Sterling - an uncertain outlook?
With sterling hitting an all-time low against the US dollar and UK markets facing general uncertainty, Head of FX Trading Chris Brand and economist Ellie Henderson discuss the current situation and outlook. The reaction to the ‘fiscal event’ was extreme, but was it justified? Markets are on edge as they await a reaction from the Bank of England, as Chris Brand and Ellie Henderson debate in their latest podcast.
FX market insights
Currencies in focus
Download a PDF report on the latest GBPUSD and GBPEUR forecasts from our economics and trading teams.
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GBPEUR summary
Economist snapshot: "The latest bank lending figures showed a sizeable fall in loans to the Eurozone private sector, indicating that monetary tightening is being felt."
Trading snapshot: "Sterling’s interest rate support has been cut back and while there is still scope for the economy to perform less badly than the consensus gloomy expectations, we anticipate a continued gradual decline in GBPEUR over the medium term."
GBPUSD summary
Economist snapshot: "Yields have risen across all tenors, as the market pushes out the length of time it expects the Fed to remain on hold for, pricing out some of the cuts that were previously anticipated for 2024."
Trading snapshot: "High US treasury supply pushing yields up and steepening curves, with yields continuing to reach post-2007 highs, has defined financial markets in recent weeks."
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