David Gracey

David Gracey

Head of Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Trading

Currency Comment - who would have predicted?

·         Well well well….there is a lot of fight in the old rattler (ZAR) recently.

·         This morning we have again seen the rand trade at its best levels for a couple of years. And this after hitting 19+ just a (more than a) few short months ago.

·         As Saffers we always struggle to understand why our currency can strengthen, and given the state of our finances and politics, you would be hard pressed to find a big ZAR bull amongst the SA population.

·         Add to that, that it appears as if we are trying to become Universal champions at corruption in South Africa. In fact, we should rename a street, or an airport, or a suburb, or a province, or the entire Country. 

·          And so we look on with bemused expressions on our faces as the ZAR trades at 13.7000 to the USD.

·         If you asked me a year ago – where would the ZAR be in a years’ time? I would have been wiping some egg yolk from my brow right now.

·         And if you ask me now – where will ZAR be in a years’ time? – well I’m sorry, I refuse to be a target for egg throwers.

·       What I can tell you is that we continue to see a very strong supply of export dollars.

·       And the other factors influencing the ZAR’s performance at the moment is the benign U.S bond market, as well as a weaker USD overall.

·       Technically the break and close below 13.8000 does open up a move toward around 13.5500. So we shall wait and see what happens.

·       If it carries on like this, instead of going to warmbaths for our annual holidays, we will all be going to Utah, once Corona restrictions are lifted. I believe it's lovely there this time of year. In fact, if it carries on like this, we may well be able to do next year’s Monte Carlo grand prix.

·       But I may be getting ahead of myself. Let’s just celebrate the old rattlers performance, and see what the future holds.

·       After all, it’s not that long ago that Man United supporters were laughing at us, telling tales of mirth at Liverpool’s expense. Look how those predictions turned out. Not that I’m gloating.