Written by Ogilvy Consulting, the 2030 Forecast examines ten foundational societal shifts that will define business strategies over the next decade.
It analyses crucial cultural, economic, and social changes happening in the world today and forecasts their impact on business models, marketing strategies, and revenue streams.
Over the next seven years, business leaders must pre-empt and navigate issues including a global workforce revolution, the changing consumer relationships with AI and tech, the new world economic dominance, the rise of the sharing economy, and women taking control of global wealth.
The 10 seismic shifts
1. Extreme volatility accelerates
As an era of unprecedented global stability is at its end, consider how to boost resilience, agility, and innovation.
The automotive industry is a case in point, with a complicated dance of original equipment manufacturers producing their own components in factories around the world and then delivering to assembly lines everything from tyres and transmissions to seats and sunroofs at just the right moment.
And then came the Covid-19 pandemic, which threw manufacturing and shipping into chaos, revealing the great weakness of a globalised, just-in-time supply chain.
2. Talent grows scarce
There won’t be enough workers to meet the needs of the economy, leading to massive talent shortages, broader recruitment pools, and AI colleagues.
The Great Resignation hastened the arrival of a trend that had been building for years, and companies now struggle to attract and retain the talent they need. All the employees shed in the tech bloodbath of 2022 will be reabsorbed before too long, and the trend toward knowledge workers dictating the terms of their employment will continue unabated.
4. The east and west decouple
The era of economic collaboration between East and West, South and North, is coming to a close. The world no longer looks to Western multinationals as the signifiers of economic success and quality merchandise. A bipolar economic order is emerging, with the West and the East reducing their interdependence.
5. Sharing rises as ownership declines
The consumer economy is driven by persona - often individual - ownership of things, but spending priorities have changed, due in part to prices for key durable assets rising faster than wages.
Fractional ownership and renting will take over many sectors, upending industries, changing the way companies make money, and impacting income inequality.
6. ESG becomes mandatory
Environment, social, and governance (ESG) measures have been ubiquitous - but not yet meaningful. The absence of standards and enforcement has led to greenwashing and a devaluation of the entire ESG concept, which is not too surprising for an emergent trend that has new costs.
Climate change targets are not yet optimised, especially if we want to keep Earth habitable. ESG will become a corporate priority, but like the crypto business, it will need metrics, standards, and independent oversight.
7. AI becomes ubiquitous
We are entering into a new phase of our relationship with technology. Whereas technology has been a tool for humans to direct and use, AI has introduced bilateral interactions. Humans will continue to delegate labour and even decision-making to AI. Their presence will become ubiquitous and indispensable.
8. An aging population turns silver into gold
Whether they were venerated, ignored, or something in between, older generations were never thought of as an economic force. Not anymore. Seniors will become one of the dominant consumer groups, displacing the young as the go-to generation for marketing. Get ready for the silver economy.
9. The era of renewable energy arrives
Now that renewable energy is growing cheaper than fossil fuels, the world can decarbonize quickly. However, the inertia of the global energy economy means this transition will not be smooth, even if whole swaths of civilisation leapfrog the carbon economy.
10. Women take control of global wealth
One of the largest wealth transfers in history will take place as women assume control of trillions of new assets by 2030. Whether that’s a blip or a new way of being depends on how society evolves. Wealth management will have to catch up to new expectations - and so will those who control capital investment.
“As we looked at the years remaining in this decade, we realised they will be pivotal for humanity as we face new problems to solve and innovate to address them. Ogilvy Consulting is casting a light on where the world will move by 2030 with this report. Modern civilisation will have to double down on our characteristic ingenuity and innate drive to thrive because through our own advancement, we’ve made the world more volatile and less hospitable.
As more people assume economic power and the world becomes more complex, multipolar, and likely more dangerous, it remains filled with the opportunity to have impact.” Carla Hendra, Global CEO of Ogilvy Consulting
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