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Strengthening our Industrial Tech & Services team

Investec is pleased to welcome Matthias Odrobina as Managing Director of our European Business Advisory and a senior member of the global sector team covering Europe, UK, Africa, the US and Asia with impartial advice on cross-border transactions.

Matthias brings deep sector expertise across industrial technology (particular focus on smart industries, B2B software and digital transformation).

He has 20 years of experience as a trusted partner to boards and owners on mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, financings, and buyouts, with a particular focus on the industrial sector, B2B software, and business services.

“”

I am thrilled to join Investec as a truly unique platform. What drew me to Investec is a combination of things I deeply care about: a genuine focus on the Mittelstand, a truly entrepreneurial mindset, a strong understanding of industrial convergence – and last but not the least, a team culture that is integrated, collaborative, and just gets things done. I’m looking forward to continuing this mission together: supporting today’s Hidden Champions while helping to build and accompany the next generation on their journey

– Matthias Odrobina, Managing Director
“”

Matthias combines operational leadership, investor insight, and deep M&A expertise in a way few can. Having driven transformation at Voith, led investments at PwC Industrial Tech Holding, and advised clients at AFRY Capital in London, he brings a unique perspective on Industrial Convergence—one of the defining challenges facing our clients today. His sector expertise, transaction experience, and strong focus on the Mittelstand will further strengthen our position across the DACH region.

– Ervin Schellenberg, Managing Partner and Board Member at Investec Advisory Europe

Contact: Matthias Odrobina

Our recent sector research has found that growth continues to underpin investor interest in software M&A, however, transaction discussions are increasingly centred on the quality and durability of that growth rather than scale alone.

Recurring revenue models remain attractive, but investors are placing greater emphasis on future-proof business models and the degree to which products are embedded within customer operations. While artificial intelligence is clearly influencing software transactions, valuation outcomes are being shaped by a more balanced assessment of both opportunity and risk.

Advances in software development and AI tooling are lowering barriers to entry, enabling faster feature replication and increasing competitive pressure in certain segments. In addition, compute and model costs can introduce margin volatility and reduce earnings predictability for some business models.

Conversely, companies supported by proprietary datasets and mission-critical workflows continue to demonstrate stronger defensibility. These characteristics enable faster innovation, support broader product offerings, and enhance strategic appeal for both corporate acquirers and private equity investors.

Cross-border demand for Benelux software assets remains strong, with sponsor-backed platforms continuing to drive consolidation across multiple sub-sectors. At the same time, investor selectivity has increased, reinforcing the importance of preparation, positioning, and a clearly articulated equity story.

Please contact Ron Belt, Maurits Odekerken or Jesper de Voijs to access our full M&A Insight Report exploring the key trends, transaction dynamics, and valuation considerations shaping the market.

The European building automation industry is undergoing a period of structural transformation. A traditionally fragmented, owner-managed market is increasingly giving way to a capital-backed platform ecosystem. M&A is no longer merely opportunistic but has become a core strategic tool for vertical integration, scaling expertise, international expansion, and value creation. Leading providers such as Siemens, Johnson Controls, Schneider Electric, and Trane Technologies dominate the market with integrated solutions and digital service portfolios. Mid-sized companies and platform providers such as VDK Groep, Elevion, and Konzmann complement the market with regional strength and specialized technical expertise. Drivers in a market expected to nearly double by 2034 include energy efficiency, regulation, digitalization, AI, and smart building technologies. Private equity is a powerful catalyst for market transformation, driven by buy-and-build strategies, software margin potential, and demand secured by regulation. M&A activity remains high due to fragmentation, technology needs, and international expansion goals.

For owners of private companies, this gives rise to clear strategic priorities: digitalization and cloud/AI technologies should be consistently expanded, service- and lifecycle-oriented business models strengthened, positioning sharpened, and organizational structures made scalable. Sustainability is also emerging as a key competitive and valuation factor.

Digitalization shifts value creation and creates new revenue models

The building automation industry is undergoing a profound transformation that is increasingly shaped by software, data, and services. Even though traditional hardware still plays a role, growth is clearly shifting toward digital solutions. Energy management software, cloud-based BMS, subscription models, and AI-powered optimization systems, in particular, are experiencing high growth rates. Wireless retrofits and cloud-based analytics are also gaining importance and ensuring that recurring revenue accounts for an ever-larger share of total revenue.

At the same time, digitalization significantly improves earnings quality. Digital and data-driven services generate substantially higher margins than the installation business. Providers that combine AI, IoT, and automation consistently achieve above-average EBITDA margins. At the same time, predictive maintenance enables both efficiency gains for customers and the introduction of performance-based compensation models. In addition, service and maintenance contracts have a stabilizing effect on the business model: they smooth out the volatility caused by economic fluctuations in the construction and modernization market. Regulatory frameworks also contribute to investment security and long-term planning.

Consolidation is accelerating

The M&A market in building automation is increasingly characterized by consolidation. The highly fragmented landscape of small and medium-sized providers offers attractive opportunities for strategic buyers seeking, above all, digital expertise—for example, in areas such as cloud architectures, AI technologies, or cybersecurity. These capabilities are becoming essential for remaining competitive and offering integrated, scalable solutions.

Companies with a high proportion of software or proprietary BMS systems also achieve higher EBITDA multiples, as software is not only more scalable but also generates more stable and predictable cash flows. Due to regulatory drivers and the increasing focus on energy efficiency, building automation is considered a particularly resilient industry.

In addition, regional expansion strategies are coming more into focus. North America and Europe remain key markets, but APAC in particular is gaining increasing importance due to high growth rates. Cross-border transactions are on the rise as companies increasingly pursue technological differentiation and geographic scaling in tandem.

Trane Technologies: Expanding digital capabilities through M&A

Trane Technologies provides a striking example of strategically driven investments. With the acquisition of BrainBox AI in 2025, Trane acquired a leading provider of autonomous HVAC optimization based on deep learning. Its technology enables energy savings of up to 25% and CO₂ reductions of up to 40%. The acquisition serves to strengthen Trane’s own digital capabilities and further develop the company’s decarbonization strategy. It also opens up or strengthens vertical markets such as hotels, healthcare, offices, retail, and airports, and unlocks potential for results-oriented service and SaaS models.

Also in 2025, Trane acquired a 49% stake in Kieback & Peter, a European specialist in smart building automation with proprietary hardware and software, service expertise, and a strong presence, particularly in the German market. The investment improves Trane’s access to an established BMS platform such as Qanteon and expands its own HVAC capabilities to include high-quality control and automation systems and lifecycle service business.

Overall, these investments strengthen Trane’s business model on multiple levels: they increase the share of recurring revenue, improve margins through software and AI services, enable extensive up- and cross-selling opportunities, and deepen customer loyalty through long-term service and SaaS contracts.

Private equity as a catalyst for market disruption

Private equity firms are playing a central role in the transformation of the building automation industry. Thanks to attractive market dynamics—including stable annual growth of 8–12%, demand underpinned by regulations, and a high proportion of recurring revenue – the sector is among the preferred investment areas. PE investors are increasingly relying on buy-and-build strategies, in which regional installation and automation companies are consolidated into larger platform groups. The goal is to realize economies of scale, optimize procurement and processes, and expand digital capabilities and software expertise.

The funds’ value creation strategies often include the digitalization of existing business models, the development of proprietary software stacks, and the expansion of the portfolio to include energy management and smart building services. By focusing on predictable cash flows from service and maintenance contracts, PE investors create stable, high-growth platforms.

At the same time, PE-financed platform groups significantly increase the pressure for innovation on traditional market participants. They drive the professionalization of software- and AI-based business models, thereby accelerating the structural transformation of the entire industry.

Success agenda for private business owners

Investec has a senior team in the Technology & Services sectors, who are experienced experts in selling, buying, and financing businesses.

If you have any questions or would like to learn more about building or industrial automation, company valuations, buyer activity, and current market opportunities, please contact us: arne.laarveld@investec.com,ervin.schellenberg@investec.com,  mirko.nikkels@investec.com,  constantin.waider@investec.com

IT-Services multiples have normalized since the 2021 peak (15.9x), with investors now pricing the sector on visibility, profitability and delivery quality rather than pure revenue growth.

Valuations are anchored in the high single- to low double-digit EV/EBITDA range. Premiums accrue to models with higher recurring mix, stronger cash conversion and industry-specific differentiation, while generic capacity-driven models trade at a discount.

European countries with Investec presence on the ground (UK, France, Germany, Benelux, Switzerland, Nordics) account for >85% of Q4 2025 deals, indicating a high overlap between observed M&A activity and Investec’s geographic footprint.

Cross-border share steadily increasing to 57%, Investec present in all main markets

Except for Q2 2025, deal flow further softened in Q4 2025 as buyers became more selective, focusing on assets that demonstrate repeatable execution at scale, governance, high-quality revenue streams and delivery reliability. Cross-border share rose to 57% in Q4 2025, reflecting a clear shift towards pan-regional delivery and regulatory coverage of country specific requirements.

Key drivers behind the cross-border tilt:

Outlook 2026: buyers are re-engaging, but with disciplined optimism – fundamentals and execution certainty remain central to underwriting.

Valuation levels have stabilized, showing slight upward trend in Q4 2025

Convergence continues, as investors apply a uniform KPI lens, rewarding visibility and cash conversion. Valuations in Q4 25 vary between ~9-10x EV/EBITDA with an upward trend. Multiple upgrades require higher recurring mix and margin durability. Providers that productize delivery (templates, automation, near-/offshore leverage) tend to reduce volatility and sustain multiples better through cycles.

YoY EV/EBITDA valuation rebalancing: quality-first buying favours managed models over project-heavy delivery

YoY compression: Valuations declined as investors rotated to quality at tighter entry levels. The strongest pressure appeared in project-heavy models, where wage and bench frictions reduced margin visibility, while operate/managed models saw smaller drawdowns. With buyer discipline still elevated, the YoY reset aligns with the broader post‑2021 normalization in tech services multiples.

2026E revenue growth expected to resume as IT Spend re-accelerates and GenAI scales cloud delivery

2026E marks a rebound from a weak 2025 base. Two main forces drive the upswing:

EBITDA Margins stay resilient, best-in-class performance with key execution levers

Margins have shown only limited compression and remain structurally stable. Key aspects to watch:

Investors reward profitable growth: margins, recurring revenue and cash conversion drive premium multiples

The market rewards profitable growth, not topline alone. Peers that combine solid margin with strong growth cluster at the upper end of sector multiples, while low‑margin growth screens as lower quality. Investors are looking for tight utilization, healthy gross margins and a rising recurring share – in other words, visibility, quality and cash conversion.

The Investec IT-Service Index tracks daily developments. The index includes valuations, growth projections, profitability margins and other metrics. You can find more information on our website.

Investec has a senior sector team in Technology, who are experienced experts in selling, buying, and financing businesses.

If you have questions and would like to know more about valuations, buyer activity and current opportunities in the market – please get in touch:

Ron Belt, Jean-Arthur Dattée, Thomas Ellenberger, Arne Laarveld, Matthias Odrobina , Sebastian Lawrence, Mirko Nikkels, Maurits Odekerken, Oliver Reinecker

After two strong quarters, Q3 marked a valuation reset, driven by investor focus on profitability over pure growth. Multiples have converged, rewarding companies that exceed the Rule of 40 benchmark. ERP and HCM illustrate resilience through stickiness and talent-driven demand, while CRM remains the long-term growth leader despite short-term volatility.

For entrepreneurs, balancing growth with margin is now critical to sustain premium valuations, while investors and PE firms should expect continued discipline and position portfolios for a two-speed market. Software remains structurally attractive, but quality – not category hype – will likely lead the way in the near future.

EV/Revenue Development by sub sector: Q3 2019 – Q3 2025

A few takeaways from the last years:

EV/Revenue: YoY comparison 10/2024 – 10/2025

Revenue growth in % by sub sector: 2020 – 2026E

It’s a two-speed market: fast-growing sub sectors (CRM, HCM, A&F) lead the pack, while foundational platforms (ERP, SCM, BPM) show steadier, more cyclical growth.

Software Valuation Framework: The Rule of 40

EBITDA-margin by sub sector: 2020 to 2025 (in %)

Profitability is most resilient in standardised, sticky sub sectors (HCM, A&F, ERP), while CRM, BPM, and SCM face structurally thinner margins due to integration and service intensity.

The Enterprise Software Market by sub sector, 2025-2030

Overall, process- and automation-centric sub sectors (BPM, CRM, ERP) are positioned to capture disproportionate value.

Investec Software Index vs. S&P500

The Investec Software Index tracks daily developments in segments such as ERP, CRM, BPM, SCM, HCM and Accounting&Finance. The index includes valuations, growth projections, profitability margins and other metrics. You can find more information on our website.

Investec has a senior sector team in Technology, who are experienced experts in selling, buying, and financing businesses.

If you have questions and would like to know more about valuations, buyer activity and current opportunities in the market – please get in touch:

Oliver Andrews, Ron Belt, Jean-Arthur Dattée, Thomas Ellenberger, Arne Laarveld, Sebastian Lawrence, Mirko Nikkels, Maurits Odekerken, Oliver Reinecker

Investec Whitepaper

Foreword

At Investec, we have worked with a lot of clients that shaped Enterprise Software. With decades of transaction experience across Business Process Management, Automation, Workflow and adjacent fields, one of our core focuses lies in the layer of the Enterprise Software stack that will be most transformed by autonomy -where orchestration, intelligence, and value creation converge.

Long before agentic AI became a headline term, we saw its foundations being laid by the companies we advised, and it is now that the industry reaches a pivotal moment. This gives us a unique perspective on the future of Enterprise Software, and we are aspiring to leverage this position to support the next generation of software leaders.

Executive Summary

Enterprise Software is on the cusp of its most profound transformation since the shift to the cloud. The next, already strongly emerging wave is agentic AI: systems that reason, plan, and act autonomously. The Autonomous Enterprise is no longer science fiction—it is fast becoming an achievable horizon.

This view is echoed by leading research desks: Goldman Sachs sees agentic AI expanding the software market by over 10%, Morgan Stanley calls it a new value layer redefining SaaS efficiency, and Citi Research envisions an enterprise powered by autonomous agents within CRM, ERP, and BI.

Together, this early but growing body of research reinforces a single conclusion: the next structural evolution in enterprise software will be built around autonomous systems that not only assist humans but execute, learn, and govern within defined business objectives. We take this a step further, identifying that agentic AI requires not a bolt-on integration but a fundamental re-architecture of the enterprise software stack—and we provide evidence that this transformation is already underway.

This is further evidenced by investors already pricing in the disruptive potential of AI-native models, rewarding companies that create the building blocks that enable true autonomy into their core architectures and products.

What is Agentic AI in Enterprise Software

Agentic AI refers to software systems capable of understanding goals, reasoning over context, and autonomously executing tasks across applications and data environments. Unlike predictive or assistive AI, agentic systems combine perception, reasoning, planning, and action in closed feedback loops.

Our thesis: The future of Enterprise Software goes beyond incremental AI add-ons — it is a re-architecting around agents. The winners will master context, orchestration, outcome-based economics, and the governance of autonomous systems. And most importantly the ultimate agentic software delivery to the end user, which is going to be orders of magnitude more complex than delivering just software.

How a professional dialogue is now moving companies forward

Interview with Thorsten Gladiator, Managing Partner of Investec about how a professional dialogue is now moving companies forward:

This video answers these questions and give you an idea and overview in a few minutes.

Finding the right type of capital and investor to help grow your business

Our team has a long track record of successfully raising equity and debt capital and has the necessary expertise and networks:

In today’s world, too many consultants arrive with a hammer in hand – ready to treat every problem as a nail. But real entrepreneurs don’t need pre-packaged solutions. They have challenges and visions and need solutions properly addressing these challenges and provide options. They need partners who understand complexity, offer relevant expertise, and provide real alternatives – especially when the path forward isn’t obvious.

That’s precisely why I joined Investec.

Not because it’s the biggest or loudest name in the market—but because it relentlessly strives to offer what truly matters:

That’s what drew me here: the chance to help entrepreneurs explore what lies between the classic ‘all in’ or ‘full exit’ choices. The space where creative capital, smart structuring and nuanced advice can unlock new possibilities.

My personal story—how I built and shaped tech markets, what drives me, and why Investec is the right platform for the next chapter – is explored in detail in the article linked below.

But let me leave you with a parable:

A seasoned blacksmith had long relied on one tool—a powerful, time-tested hammer. One day, a young entrepreneur arrived with a broken, intricate machine. The blacksmith hammered, welded, tested—but the machine still stuttered.

“You need more than a hammer,” the entrepreneur said. “You need someone who understands how the system works—end to end.”

The blacksmith began collecting new tools: measuring devices, precision instruments, innovative materials. But the most important tool of all was a compass. It showed where the forces were coming from—and where they needed to go.

He realized success wasn’t about force. It was about using the right tool, at the right moment, with a clear view of the bigger picture.

That’s what we aim to do at Investec.

Click here to read my story in detail.

“Entrepreneurs have challenges and are seeking solutions to mitigate said challenges. Being able to provide client centric advice on adequate solutions to turn challenges into opportunities is at the heart of what we enjoy doing the most at Investec Advisory.”

 

On June 5, we had the pleasure of hosting a selected group of entrepreneurs for our TMT CEO Dinner in our Wiesbaden office.

The evening focused on strategic dialogue around digital transformation and the impact of software and how leaders can actively shape the future of their businesses. A standout moment was the keynote by Lars Lehne (former CEO of Incubeta and Syzygy), who offered inspiring perspectives on South African culture and the intersection of digital expertise, leadership, and openness to change – all with a fresh and thought-provoking angle.

The event wrapped up with a relaxed and personal dinner, offering a space for open dialogue and meaningful new connections.

Evenings like this are where ideas begin to take shape and future plans are set in motion. We’re already looking forward to the next edition!

Helen Lucas | UK
Jonathan Harvey | UK

Our 14th report comes at a crucial time for the industry, as GPs get back to the business of selling portfolio companies and raising new funds.

2024 was a tough year for private equity and the overriding view from our survey of 253 general partners (GPs)* is that 2025 will be different.

Our findings show an industry which, despite challenges over the past few years, is resilient, adaptable, and anticipating a more favourable period ahead.

Four in five GPs expect deal valuations to increase in 2025 as interest rates come down, helping to clear exit bottlenecks and accelerate investors’ distributions. The outlook for returns is also brighter, with improvements registered across geographies and fund sizes. Close to two thirds (65%) of investors see returns improving in 2025, up from only 24% in 2024.

Dealmakers still must navigate ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic risk, as trade tariff tit-for-tats continue and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remain unresolved. It is a complex market, but the backdrop for M&A is better than it was a year ago.

Jump to a section:

Future fundraisings
GP commitments
New world of debt
Innovations and exits
GPs at a crossroads

Future fundraisings

In 2024, 21% of respondents expected a down raise for their next fund: the 2025 research shows only 3% anticipating the same scenario.

There is also a large cohort of super-optimists – 38% expect their next raise will be a blockbuster increase of 25% or more over their previous fund.

Limited partners (LPs), however, are expected to remain highly selective in 2025. In 2024, according to PEI figures1, the ten largest funds to close in 2024 all secured more than $10 billion and absorbed more than a fifth of total fundraising allocations while a Coller Capital LP survey2 showed that the top focus for 98% of investors is that a new manager has a team with a strong track record.

Our survey findings tie in with this theme – close to a third of respondents (31%) expect an increasing number of GPs to move into wind-down. However, this does not mean the opportunity for new managers has passed; just 26% agreed that “very few new GPs will be launched”.

Although fundraising conditions are improving, LPs continue to consolidate GP relationships, focusing on managers of scale and mid-market specialists with differentiated investment strategies and exceptional returns.

Fundraising optimism surges

Jump to a section:

Deal valuations
GP commitments
New world of debt
Innovations and exits
GPs at a crossroads

GP commitments

The survey shows GPs are planning to up their commitment from the typical 2% to 3% to strengthen alignment with investors and boost fundraising momentum.

Managers are taking a blended approach to financing these higher commitments including existing resources, reinvesting carried interest and external debt, which is gaining favour. Most are using two options to fulfil their obligations, with 13% expecting to use three options.

Where are commitments highest?

The findings reveal interesting regional variations when it comes to GP commitments.

UK managers are more likely to be asked for a big commitment: 22% were asked for more than 5% versus just 8% of managers in Europe. Managers in France, meanwhile, seem to be asked for a particularly slim commitment, with more than half expecting to be asked for less than 2%.

Overall, a significant minority of investors expect to up commitments in the future.

Jump to a section:

Deal valuations
Future fundraisings
New world of debt
Innovations and exits
GPs at a crossroads

New world of debt

Debt markets are open for business with a substantial number of new lenders entering the market to provide GPs with enhanced financing optionality.

More than half (54%) of GPs say they will have new lenders to work with in 2024. This marks a shift from last year’s findings, when 56% of respondents saw a contraction in new lender activity. The majority of GPs who took part in our survey are working with credit funds and the top three reasons cited for working with a private credit included higher leverage levels and innovative financing solutions.

UK managers are hopeful that increasing competition will result in looser terms, with 54% of UK managers reporting either private debt narrowing margins or terms loosening generally. Outside of the UK, however, GPs are more cautious, with only 35% forecasting looser terms.

Despite these expectations, lenders are remaining disciplined. Well over a third of respondents (43%) report that leverage multiples have lowered from a year ago.

Competition is fierce for trophy assets in certain sectors, and these companies will be able to negotiate more favourable terms, but lenders will be highly selective.

Interest rates may have come down, but the risk-free rate remains elevated when compared with recent years, making additional leverage costly to service. Debt is available (European leveraged loan issuance climbed by more than 90% in 20243 and private debt managers have $126.4 billion of dry powder available to invest4), but the survey findings on leverage multiples show that capital structures remain relatively conservative.

Covenant flexibility

Even as interest rates have come down, GPs have still had to work hard to protect portfolio companies.

Some 87% of respondents say they have gone to lenders to request covenant flexibility for one or more portfolio companies. Broad economic issues (cited by 41%) and business underperformance (cited by 34%) are the main reasons for requesting flexibility.

Interestingly, close to a third of respondents (30%) have requested covenant flexibility to fund growth as GPs hold some portfolio companies for prolonged periods.

“We will always be open to a conversation about covenant flexibility. If a business is growing and wants to re-lever, or the sponsor wants to hold an asset for longer, loosening covenants can have a positive impact on supporting growth.”Helen Lucas, Co-Head of UK Origination, Direct Lending, Investec

Lending landscape

As more lenders entered the private equity space, there has also been increased use of some newer debt products. Innovation continues; survey respondents expect ESG-linked lending, fund-level finance and asset-based lending to increase market share.

Around half of the respondents expect credit funds to do more business with their firm during the year, but banks remain highly competitive; almost a quarter (22%) say they expect to place more lending with banks in the next 12 months. Hybrid capital is gaining particular traction for smaller managers with assets of $250m or less, with a quarter of these saying this type of lender will gain the most market share at their firm in the next year.

NAV lending

Net asset value (NAV) finance has proven particularly popular with managers in an environment where liquidity has been constrained.

Four in five GPs said they used NAV finance in the last year, with distributions the most-cited use case (37%).

Uptake of NAV finance looks set to continue accelerating, with two thirds (65%) of respondents who had not used NAV finance previously saying they were interested in taking up NAV loans.

Deployment and operations

Less than half of GPs (49%) have deployed most of their capital in new deals during the past 12 months, with just over a fifth (21%) focusing efforts on smaller bolt-on acquisitions to support buy-and-build portfolios – down from 28% in our previous survey. An increase in the number of GPs deploying most of their capital in equity cures – up to 17% from 11% last year – further highlights the tough backdrop for managers during the past year.

The improving outlook means that the next 12 months should be more favourable for deployment. Somewhat surprisingly, the public-to-private outlook is mixed and not much changed from last year despite low stock market valuations, most notably in the UK5. Some 50% say they expect to look at more public-to-privates but 40% expect to look at less.

Big-ticket take-private deals during 20246 have ensured that P2P remains on the managers’ radars and may result in activity in this area.

“Private equity managers are ready to deploy, but it is taking much longer to originate deals. GPs will be forming relationships with management teams up to three years ahead of a formal process. During the last two years we have seen a number of processes fall over, and it does take time to rebuild before businesses come back to market.”Kate Gribbon, Head of Financial Sponsor Coverage & Origination, Investec

Jump to a section:

Deal valuations
Future fundraisings
GP commitments
Innovations and exits
GPs at a crossroads

Innovations and exits

One of the single biggest challenges for private equity managers through the rising interest-rate cycle has been to sell portfolio assets at valuations that deliver adequate returns.

In tepid IPO and M&A markets, GPs often opted to sit tight rather than offload assets at lower-than-hoped-for multiples. Hold periods remain above long-term averages, with the backlog of private equity-backed companies sitting at record levels7.

This has had repercussions on fundraising – slowing distributions to LPs have limited their ability to allocate to new funds.

Managers looking at exits will explore all options to crystallise returns, with the survey findings ranking expectations for different exit routes in a narrow band.

More than half of GPs (54%) think trade sales will be the busiest exit route during the next 24 months. But after a long barren spell the IPO is back in the frame again, with the typical manager optimistic that two portfolio companies could be an IPO candidate over the next two years.

The squeeze on other exit routes meant there has been greater use of continuation vehicles which are here to stay as a mainstream exit path: more than 40% of GPs say a continuation fund will be an exit option they are more likely to use in the next 12 months.

The UK IPO question

Private equity-backed portfolio company IPOs haven’t always been crowd-pleasers, particularly on UK markets8, but the survey findings show managers warming to the UK stock market – albeit with some reservations.

Some 65% of UK managers who expect to list a portfolio company in the next two years consider the UK a potential venue – although they will also look at other venues such as Amsterdam or New York.

The size of the manager and portfolio is a factor in stock market selection. Larger managers with bigger assets to float think a UK IPO is less attractive, indicating that larger IPOs are considered more challenging for UK public markets.

Jump to a section:

Deal valuations
Future fundraisings
GP commitments
New world of debt
GPs at a crossroads

GPs at a crossroads

According to Pitchbook figures, GP-to-GP M&A reached record highs at the end of 20249 and the survey points to a long runway of further deals, with 79% of respondents expecting some kind of change to their firm’s structure.

In addition to GP consolidation deals, new teams are forming in spinouts and minority stake investment is proliferating.

Indeed, 38% of GPs say some partners could leave their firm via a spinout in the next 24 months. This is reflective of a tougher fundraising environment, particularly for smaller managers with assets under management (AUM) below $1bn, where spinouts are more likely as junior partners explore other options when fundraisings stall.

Getting ready to capture growth

Historically, the main driver for taking on third-party capital or merging with another firm was likely to unlock liquidity and facilitate succession. While this reason was selected by 22% of respondents, the majority see a transaction as a tool to provide capital for growth or expand service lines and scale.

Ideally, twice as many managers say they would like to be the acquirer rather than target in a consolidation scenario.

What is also worth noting is that when it came to continuation vehicles, our survey showed that 40% of GPs think there will be more single-asset continuation vehicles over the next 24 months and over 25% thought they are likely to become more specialised. Single-asset continuation vehicles allow GPs to remain invested in a prized portfolio company and could potentially lead to a spin-out by a manager.

Jump to a section:

Deal valuations
Future fundraisings
GP commitments
New world of debt
Innovations and exits

* Demographic info

This report is based on 253 responses to an online survey conducted between 7 January and 22 January 2025. Respondents were sourced from a prequalified panel and no PE firm was represented more than once.

178 were based in the UK, 75 in Europe including 22 in Germany, 14 in Spain and 11 in France. Some 34% of respondents were investment directors, other eligible job titles were CFO, VP of finance, director of finance, principal and manager of finance/investments.

Footnotes:

1 https://media.privateequityinternational.com/uploads/2025/01/full-year-2024-fundraising-report-pei.pdf

2 https://www.collercapital.com/41-barometer-winter-2024/

3 https://whcs.law/42eh8Z4

4 https://www.muzinich.com/opinions/corporate-credit-outlook-2025-private-markets

5 https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-multiple-reasons-be-bullish-about-uk-stocks-ii533630

6 https://www.ft.com/content/ec9aa2ae-f56a-4373-8c4b-88effc01a25d

7 https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/global-private-markets-report

8 https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/jan/19/dr-martens-profits-warning-uk-ipo-market

9 https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/blackrock-hps-purchase-record-year-gp-consolidation

The Digital Agency Landscape:

M&A activity in the digital agency market is on the rise again. In recent years, macroeconomic factors and a focus on integration led to a temporary slowdown. Highly acquisitive platforms shifted their attention to internal alignment, streamlining operations, optimizing synergies, and consolidating previous acquisitions. However, the sector is now experiencing renewed momentum in M&A, fueled by several key market trends:

The Dutch Digital Agency market

The Dutch digital agency market is undergoing rapid consolidation, driven by private equity-backed platforms pursuing aggressive acquisition strategies. With improving macroeconomic conditions and a maturing domestic market, leading firms are increasingly looking beyond national borders for expansion, seeking international opportunities to sustain growth and enhance their global reach.

In our latest platform mapping, Leads.io stood out as the most active acquirer, with at least six acquisitions in the past year. Backed by Egeria, the company continues to strengthen its international footprint, particularly in key European markets such as France and Spain.

Additionally, a new platform emerged as Newport Capital established the European Performance Agency Group by merging four digital agencies – OrangeValley, MvH Media, AdResults, and Increase – into a dedicated performance marketing services group. This aligns with the growing demand for data-driven, results-focused marketing solutions, further driving consolidation in the industry

Market Outlook

The global addressable market for digital advertising agency fees is expected to experience significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7%, reaching approximately €411 billion by 2026. In Europe, the market is set to expand even faster, with a CAGR of 14.4% from 2023 to 2026, reaching an estimated €44 billion in 2026. This rapid expansion highlights the growing reliance on digital marketing as brands seek to enhance their online presence, optimize performance-driven advertising, and navigate an increasingly complex digital landscape. 

Valuation Insights

Following from our analysis we notice that agencies that position themselves as comprehensive digital service providers tend to receive higher valuations compared to traditional digital agencies. Investors increasingly favour firms that offer end-to-end marketing solutions, encompassing SEO, social media management, content marketing, email marketing, web development, and advanced data analytics. Additionally, agencies with broad service models benefit from diversified revenue streams, stronger cross-selling opportunities, and greater resilience to market fluctuation; all factors that contribute to higher investor confidence and premium valuations.

For more information and our full 2024 Digital Agency Report, which includes the mapping of PE-backed Buy & Build platforms in multiple countries, please contact Ron Belt or Maurits Odekerken.

As the world becomes increasingly digital, software is becoming integral to businesses and services globally, enhancing efficiency, quality, and innovation. Within this sector, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is growing rapidly mainly due to its accessibility and ease of use. The SaaS market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 18.7%, reaching $908 billion by 2030, up from $282 billion in 2023, driven by the adoption of cloud solutions, AI, IoT, and robotics.

In the Benelux region, SaaS companies are also thriving. Our detailed M&A deck features 85 promising SaaS firms, with 65% already receiving investor support.

In case you are interested to receive the complete SaaS 85 deck or want to discuss trends and hear about KPIs/metrics in the market feel free to reach out.

The landscape of IT Managed Services is undergoing a significant transformation. As the sector experiences a notable uptick in consolidation, growth and innovation, we are taking a closer look at five key trends that are shaping the future of Managed Services in the Netherlands. This insight is part of our 2024 IT Services report.

5 Key trends in the Dutch IT Managed Services market

1. Market Momentum

The Dutch IT Managed Services market is on a fast track, with robust growth projections. By 2025, the market is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, reaching a valuation of €12.4 billion. This momentum highlights the increasing reliance on IT Managed Services within the Dutch business ecosystem, reflecting broader global trends in the digital transformation of industries.

2. SME Dominance

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of the Dutch Managed Services market, accounting for over 60% of the industry. This dominance underscores the critical role that SMEs play in the national economy, leveraging IT Managed Services to enhance competitiveness, streamline operations, and mitigate risks associated with technological disruptions.

3. Data Defense

With cybersecurity increasingly at the forefront of IT strategies, the Dutch market is no exception. The cybersecurity segment within Managed Services is projected to reach €3.5 billion by 2025. Notably, in 2022, approximately 39% of companies in Europe reported experiencing at least one cyberattack, highlighting the crucial need for robust cybersecurity solutions.

5. Hybrid Solutions

For larger organizations, hybrid IT environments are becoming the strategic choice. These solutions combine the benefits of on-premise and cloud-based systems, optimizing access and enhancing security. Hybrid environments facilitate a more agile response to business needs, offering a scalable approach to managing complex IT infrastructures.

Looking Ahead

As we continue to analyze the evolving IT landscape, the pivot towards IT ‘as-a-service’ models is increasingly apparent. These models offer compelling advantages, including financial stickiness and adaptive capacity, which are essential in today’s dynamic market environment, and also key drivers for both buyers and investors.

For more information and our full 2024 IT Services report, please contact Maurits Odekerken or Ron Belt.

Interview

As we enter 2024, the M&A landscape shows signs of recovery, albeit cautiously.

In the episode of the February 20, 2024 of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs in conversation with Investec experts Jürgen Schwarz, Marleen Vermeer, and Kilian de Gourcuff, Investec’s Head of Cross-Border Finance and International Advisory Charles Barlow, on what key sectors, trends and risks to keep an eye on in 2024.

Click below to listen to the podcast: 

Where does opportunity lie for dealmaking in 2024? (investec.com)

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Listen to the best of No Ordinary Wednesday: https://www.investec.com/en_za/focus/no-ordinary-wednesday-with-jeremy-maggs.html

Sustainable underlying trends, attracting interest from all market participants, coupled with high risks and investments in the development phase are paving the way for a thriving market.

The European M&A market for industrial software continues to be fuelled by consolidation across all end market segments. Ongoing trends of digitalization within the industrial sector, increasing convergence of sectors and the demand for more (factory) automation to counteract the increasing shortage of talent are just a few selected trends contributing to the growing interest from private equity firms and strategic players crossing sector and geographic borders.

Software as a solution to competition gaps

The advancement of Industry 4.0 implementation, integrating digital technologies into the manufacturing process, positions digitalization at the core of most sectors. Compliance with this trend has become inevitable for companies striving to stay at the forefront of innovation. Both micro- and macroeconomic trends, such as skilled labor shortages, ESG policies, and reshoring of complete production plants, are accelerating this process. Meanwhile, safeguarding assets is essential as the industrial system becomes more (cyber)connected and online. The German industry, accounting for approximately 25% of the country’s GDP, is considered critical infrastructure, emphasizing the need to ensure data integrity.

Market interest from different strategic angles

Software has always attracted various buyer pools with different strategic interests. Financial sponsors are particularly interested in recurring and scalable revenues combined with high-profit margins. In contrast, strategic players seek capabilities expansion and the “softwarization“ of their hardware (IoT). The industrial software market demonstrates sustainable growth underpinnings, with optimizing and modernizing the IT landscape being more crucial than the hardware itself.

Deal examples:

Growth capital unlocked for Desk by Software Partners Group

“SPG is a partner that combines excellent technology know-how and buy & build expertise, which will enable us to reach the next stage of our buy&build journey.” Volker Schneider (CEO, Desk)

wenglor sensoric group acquires Berlin based AI and Image processing Start-Up deevio

“With the acquisition of deevio GmbH, we have this opportunity to further strengthen our expertise and capability in the field of machine vision. In recent years, deevio has developed a great deal of know-how in using AI and data science for image processing applications within the automation industry, which is a considerable advantage for us.” Rafael Baur (Managing Director, wenglor)

Data (analytics) driven production: The new standard

New levels of data accessibility have been achieved, with standard APIs implemented across the entire IT landscape of the industry and collaboration between industrial technology providers. Data lakes are formed through a multi-sourcing policy from (digital twin) machinery and sensors, the IT architecture (ERP, MES, etc.), and human-generated data (quality management, observations, etc.). Recent technologies, such as AI, cloud computing, and predictive models, enable the treatment and analysis of the vast amount of generated data. Decision-makers now have access to aggregated and qualitative information for data-driven decisions.

Deal examples:

Majority investment of FSN Capital in Lobster

“In a world of exponentially growing amounts of data, complexity of data flows and application stacks, Lobster offers easy to use, economic and powerful software solutions to integrate data, applications, and processes of all forms and variations.” Robin Mürer (Co-Managing Partner, FSN Capital Partners)

The same old challenge… – make or buy

The ultimate question in growth strategies making companies consider M&A as an option is whether to make or buy. The combination of high development costs (in time and opportunity) but risky success rates is the primary rationale for market activity within (industrial) software to expand its capabilities and/or geographical footprint. The principle of Moore’s Law is still true in today’s technology ecosystem. Rapid cycles leave no room to develop everything in-house, acting as a catalyst for market activity.

Deal examples:

Aptean expands ERP offerings in beverage companies in Germany with the acquisition of Best Practice IT Solutions GmbH

“Best Practice IT Solutions’ cloud-based software will complement Aptean’s current Food & Beverage ERP offering and enhance our ability to serve beverage companies.” Duane George (GM, Aptean)

proALPHA acquires Persis GmbH

“By bundling the expertise of tisoware and Persis, we create a uniquely comprehensive HR ecosystem for our customers. Together with solutions for access and building security (Security) and for optimizing production processes (MES) in the context of Industry 4.0, we offer an overall workforce portfolio for medium-sized enterprises in the DACH region.” Markus Steinberger (CEO, tisoware)

Our industrial software index outruns other indexes  

Since 2019, the Industrial Software Index has risen almost threefold, while the main Industrial Technology sector has doubled. A new all-time high has been reached for market capitalization.

The main macroeconomic events over the last 5 years have similarly impacted all indexes, but industrial software market capitalizations seem to recover more quickly.

Valuations for listed industrial software companies, both EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales, remain high, with forward multiples at ca. 11x sales FY2024.

So, industrial software – hot or not?

Most checkboxes are ticked for answering the question positively:

Investec Industrial Technology

The Investec Industrial Technology index tracks daily developments in sectors such as Flow & Process Control, Robots/Motion, Electronics/Control / Connect, Integrated providers, Measurement/Vision Tech, Industrial Software, Intralogistics/System integration and Machinery.

The index includes valuations, growth projections, profitability margins and other metrics.

Would you like to learn more about valuations, buyer activity and current opportunities in the market?

Please do not hesitate to contact us.

You can find more information on our website at Industrials | Investec

Strengthening our technology portfolio at Investec

Investec is pleased to announce the addition of Sebastian Markowsky to the management team. Sebastian Markowsky will strengthen the technology team, where his main focus is on M&A and corporate finance in the areas of industrial and digital transformation as well as industrial, software and financial technology for mid-market companies.

Sebastian brings more than 15 years of experience in arranging fundraising and M&A transactions in Germany and internationally, and has a strong technology focus with the additional areas of software fintech, digital transformation and digital media as well as IT services and IT integration.

Sebastian comments: “Investec offers a strong platform and a comprehensive product portfolio to support mid-market technology entrepreneurs in many different situations and with different needs. With Investec behind us, we can offer our European clients a very comprehensive range of different and targeted solutions.”

Ervin Schellenberg Managing Partner Investec Europe adds: “I am delighted to welcome Sebastian, a highly experienced technology investment banker with a passion for innovation and transformation. We have become increasingly technologically savvy in our Industrials Services transactions over the years and are looking forward to being even more active in this area with Sebastian’s support. Sebastian is also part of our global technology team, so we can offer our clients access to Investec’s concentrated expertise.

Prior to joining Investec, Sebastian was Chief Strategy Officer at a compliance software company in the US and held positions as Partner at a venture and corporate finance firm in Switzerland and as Director at GP Bullhound, a globally recognised technology investment bank. Sebastian started his career in M&A at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt.

Sebastian’s passion for technology, innovation, disruption and not least blockchain is reflected in his extensive client portfolio, which includes mid-market companies, start-ups and adults, private equity and growth capital investor clients as well as family offices. His experience includes advising clients on mergers and acquisitions, capital increases, strategic growth and succession planning.

He is currently on the supervisory board of Advanced Blockchain AG, a Deutsche Börse listed company dedicated to the incubation of blockchain projects. Sebastian brings a wealth of knowledge and connections in the technology market both in Germany and internationally.

With his far-reaching network, extensive experience in fundraising and M&A as well as his entrepreneurial background, Sebastian is a valuable addition to our technology team. We are confident that his contributions will significantly enhance our capabilities as we continue to expand our activities in the German market.

Contact : Sebastian Markowsky

Financial restructuring for Shareholders & Lenders

Helping clients to navigate uncertainties while putting their businesses back on track

Interview with Jürgen Schwarz, Managing Partner of Investec about Restructuring with the help of a M&A process:

This video answers these questions and give you an idea and overview in a few minutes.

Sale from insolvency

Due to our pan-European presence and track record we are well placed to advise on international and cross-border restructurings.

Our international sector teams implement more than 50 transactions p.a. and in many sectors they know the active buyers, the acquisition criteria, the behaviour of individual decision makers. We also have an up-to-date overview of the market prices paid, which vary considerably over time and depending on the positioning in the sector.

Investec has direct access to numerous international equity and debt capital providers and has carried out numerous restructurings ranging from approximately 10 million Euros to several billion Euros.

You know your company best but selling it to a suitable buyer at an attractive price is often a major challenge.

Interview with Ervin Schellenberg, Managing Partner of Investec about finding the right partner for medium-sized companies:

This video answers these questions and give you an idea and overview in a few minutes.

Our wealth of experience from many years of successful transactions and our access to relevant decision-makers in national and international buyers ensure the best possible result for you.

Investec has the core competences required to sell companies and has successfully completed hundreds of transactions across all major industries.

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