Now the main event, 2024 U.S. elections had all the drama-complete with unpredictable twists, wild rides and a cast of characters that kept everyone on the edge of their seats. The big headline? Donald Trump, the carnival barker of American politics, was back in the ring for a second term. The crowds had cheered and jeered but in the end, the carnival-goers had spoken and Trump was once again holding the ticket to the White House. The Republicans didn’t stop there, though- they took over the entire carnival: the presidency, the House, and the Senate. It was a red sweep that left the markets scrambling to figure out where the next rollercoaster drop would come from.
Now, with Trump back on the throne, the rest of the world was eyeing the carnival gates with a mix of curiosity and concern. The early signs pointed to new attractions on the horizon-most notably, the growing threat of trade wars. The U.S. was ready to go head-to-head with anyone who dared challenge its dominance. China, in particular, was feeling the heat. The threat of tariffs and trade restrictions loomed like a game where the rules were constantly changing. China had no intention of letting the U.S. steal the show without a fight.
It wasn’t just China that had to worry. The U.S. wasn’t afraid to throw a little weight around with the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Word on the midway was that if these countries dared to form an alternative currency or use any other currencies that is not the mighty dollar, Trump’s administration would shut down trade like a machine operator closing down a ride for “maintenance.” The global economy is holding its breath, wondering whether it would be forced to sit on the sidelines or get caught in the crossfire of this international tug-of-war. The stakes are high!
For global markets, it was a case of “the carnival could go either way.” On one hand, the Republican sweep and Trump’s return to power presented the opportunity to bring stability back to the U.S., with tax cuts and deregulation as the shiny prizes. On the other hand, the potential for trade wars has left the global economy spinning. Would the trade wars be a passing storm or a long, drawn-out battle that would leave scars on the world’s economy? If history is anything to go, a storm that materialises always leaves scars we did not factor in, but the markets are hoping for a different “s”, more steam than storm.
Businesses around the world were deciding whether they wanted to join in the carnival or retreat to safer pastures. Trump’s new policies, designed to put “America First,” had the potential to upend supply chains, shift global manufacturing, and maybe even spark a few new industries. But for every opportunity, there was a threat-trade wars, currency challenges, and the looming risk of a new economic order that could leave some countries scrambling for a ticket.
In the end, the 2024 election wasn’t just a carnival - it was a high-stakes, international funhouse where the fun was unpredictable, and the prizes were bigger than ever. Whether the global economy would come out on top or face a few bruises from the ride depended on who could keep their hands inside the cart and hold on for the twists ahead. The show is just getting started, buckle in or stay tuned, some of us are foolish enough to think we can opt out of the circus.
This article originally appeared in the Market Update mailer today by Mpumelelo Mhlongo.