Rand on the rise, for now

28 Feb 2018

Annabel Bishop

Investec Chief Economist

While we may dodge a downgrade, credit ratings agencies will be looking for evidence of stronger GDP growth not only the fiscal consolidation President Ramaphosa has promised. Investec’s Chief Economist looks at the impact of the Budget Speech on the rand.

 

 
While the rand has recouped its losses from the effects of Nenegate in late 2015/early 2016, it has yet to fully recoup the losses of the past near decade.
 
Financial crises come and go, and the rand tends to revert to prior levels once the crises have passed, for example the rand spiked in 2008 and in 2001, then returned to pre-crisis levels.
 
The most recent lengthy crisis of investor confidence for South Africa lasted from 2009 until recently, and has led to depressed levels of business sentiment. The deterioration in key institutional strengths during the period weighed on the rand.
 

Breaking the trend – now to deliver

 
This direction in the rand has now been convincingly broken. The new leadership of SA is expected to deliver free market reforms and a supportive environment for the private corporate sector, leading to a recovery in economic growth from the doldrums it has sunk to. Substantial foreign portfolio inflows, with net purchases of R47bn worth of equities to date, underpins this trend.
We have improved our rand forecasts somewhat, but the domestic currency’s likely stronger path will depend on the free market reforms necessary to repair South Africa’s institutional strengths, and for these to take place as soon as possible.
Failure to deliver both on the pro-private sector business and investment stated intentions, and to eradicate state capture, corruption and poor governance would see business confidence flag. The rand would then then subside down to the previous levels, taking the hope of fast economic growth and employment down with it.

Watch Investec panel discussion on Budget 2018

Justice Malala leads a discussion on Budget 2018 with Investec's chief economist, head of currency and derivatives trading and a portfolio manager to gauge the impact on consumers, business and investors.

Thumbs up to SONA

 
The SONA has not disappointed, revealing that boosting business confidence and private sector-led growth are firmly on government’s agenda. So therefore is the need for substantial private sector job creation over the next five years.
 
Reducing the size of the state and tripling the size of the private business sector through business-supportive strategies, as well as transformation through growth and substantial additional employment, are the only sustainable methods (which must occur in tandem) to eradicate poverty and inequality, and reduce unemployment to single-digits in the long-term.
 
While the exchange rate has moved into the previous up case currency forecast range, it will take more to lift the economy to the GDP growth rate levels of the up case.
 
READ MORE: Ramaphosa's SONA promises

 

1.5%
Expected GDP growth in 2018
2%
Expected GDP growth in 2019

Feeding into the economy

 
The reduction in political uncertainty has fed rapidly through into the domestic currency, but will take a substantially longer time to feed through into the economy.
 
While the early business confidence reading shows a lift, nothing is available yet on fixed investment, GDP growth or consumption for 2018. GDP growth is now expected to be slightly stronger in 2018, at 1.5% y/y compared to closer to 1.0% y/y previously, and at 2.0% y/y in 2019 from closer to 1.5% y/y.
 

Read full Rand Outlook report

The impact of the global economy

 
Globally the lengthy low volatility period in financial markets has been broken. The sudden global risk-off sentiment has knocked the rand among other currencies.
 
Subsequently, stock markets have recovered some lost ground, as the correction has proved welcome in an environment that was becoming overbought.
 
Last year the risk of a financial crisis was being debated, not least due to the growing time-period since the previous one, with a higher interest rate environment seen as a risk for
increased corporate stress.
 
WATCH VIDEO: Global economic icebergs to look out for in 2018
 

Threats and opportunities to growth and ratings

 
South Africa’s growth rate this year could be brought back towards 2016’s 0.3% y/y if private sector spending power stalls (on excessive tax hikes which fortunately did not materialise at the Budget, where VAT was hiked by only 1 percentage point).
 
The credit rating agencies worry about SA’s anaemic economic growth rate, and the concomitant poor GDP per capita performance, just as much as they worry about fiscal consolidation.
Should SA avoid a Moody’s credit rating downgrade in Q1.18 the rand could strengthen somewhat further, but will be constrained thereafter until evidence emerges of stronger GDP growth.

 
LISTEN TO PODCAST: Downgrade averted?
 

About the author

Annabel Bishop

Annabel Bishop

Chief Economist of Investec Ltd

Annabel holds an MCom Cum Laude (Economics and econometrics) and has worked in the macroeconomic, risk, financial market and econometric fields, among others, for around 25 years. Working in the economic field at Investec, Annabel heads up a team, which focusses on the macroeconomic, financial market and global impact on the domestic environment. She authors a wide range of in-house and external articles published both abroad and in South Africa.

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