• Easy one today….if you want to know where the ZAR is going in the next few weeks its easy, you only have to figure the following permutations out.
1. Does CR stay or go, or stay then go then stay again, perhaps to go at some point today or tomorrow only to stay again by Friday, but perhaps stay or go at the elective conference later on in December, but perhaps stay by January when he heads off to the courts to challenge the findings that he may or may not have something to answer for. Whilst all this is going on you have to figure out who has the inside track, and listen to the opinions of the DA, the EFF, the bad side of the ANC, the less bad side of the ANC, Independent media – they of the breaking news of the 10 babies that were or were not born, but perhaps stolen after they were or were not born, and a few other media houses that may or may not have an agenda.
2. Once you have that puzzle solved you can then move onto global economics. Have US rates peaked or are we fooling ourselves in believing that inflation is on its way down? Is inflation transitory or less transitory, or more transitory than it once was. Is a recession around the corner, or not, because growth can always be fueled by yet more debt
3. Easy so far….now decide whether China is opening up, or closing down again to contain rampant covid. Or opening up in some areas but clamping down in others.
4. Once you have navigated that PAR 4 stroke 1, you can move on to Eskom - is it stage 2 for the next 33 minutes followed by stage 6.7 for eleventeen hours. Or is loadshedding suspended because Eskom found some diesel under the mattress (or is that only for USD). Or is Eskom finally broken beyond repair and Eskom will spend another 500 billion rand procuring candles for the population to use over the next 10 years.
5. During this period of loadshedding confusion CR will probably make some seminal announcement about his, or Mabuza , or Mkhize’s, or Zuma’s future , but no one really notices because TV’s and radios require electricity.
6. Then finally we have to figure out what’s going on in the Ukraine as Russia continues to feed teenagers and delinquents onto the front line only to return to the motherland in plastic bags, even as countless missiles cruise in the opposite direction killing scores of innocent civilians away from the front lines.
• December has arrived. It promises to be quite boring.
• But hey , the world cup is starting to get interesting…perhaps we just watch that….except of course we can’t, because you know………..Eskom.
• Good luck