- Welcome to 2025.
- With apologies to Marshall, Guess Who's Back.
- Well, if you want Trump, this is what I'll give ya.
- A little bit of tariffs mixed with some anti-immigration
Some diet coke that'll jump-start my heart quicker
Than a shock when I get going
By congress when I'm not cooperating
When I'm rockin' the table while he's operating (Hey)
You waited this long, now stop debating
'Cause I'm back, I'm on the job and postulating
I know that you got a job, Mr Musk
But your "doge" department problem's complicating
So the media won't let me be
Or let me be me, so let me see
They tried to shut me down on Main stream TV
But it feels so empty without me
- Bad lyrics aside, what does it all mean for 2025 and beyond?
- Tariffs, Ukraine, Middle East, Greenland, growth, inflation, China ...everything is up for debate.
- And then of course, what does it mean for us here on the Southern tip of Africa?
- At first glance it does not appear to be that promising.
- Trump is obviously ultra-right wing, with us clearly on the other end of the spectrum politically, it may be a tough period for US/ZA bilateral relations.
- Top of mind for consideration is clearly the future of AGOA.
- Our recent posture on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict coupled with our perceived leaning with regards to Ukraine and Russia makes this a poor starting point in our deliberations with the Trump administration.
- And then, when we add in the tariff debate around China and the US, we could very well be negatively affected should punitive tariffs entrench themselves into the global trade mechanism.
- Trump has made a tremendous amount of noise about using tariffs to drive his agenda, however it would appear as if his threats have already translated into a softer response from his counterparts with the queue outside Mara Lago growing longer every day.
- The difficulty with Trump is that he is not averse to shooting from the hip. X (twitter) was his previous platform of choice to make his views known. And between his own social media platform (truth social) and X, we will need to be vigilant for market moving commentary.
- What he has made clear is that he is not at all concerned about the current establishment. He doesn't care about funding NATO. He has no love for mainstream media, He has little regard for European interests, let alone Africa and his entire agenda is internally focused...MAGA means literally that - focus USA, and never mind the rest.
- The above referenced Eminem ditty ends with ....
Testing, "Attention, please"
Feel the tension soon as someone mentions me
Here's my ten cents, my two cents is free, here’s my ten cents, my two cents is free
A nuisance, who sent? You sent for me?
- Strap in and pay attention. It's all about to go down. Trump is back - a nuisance he will be.