- Oh, how I detest politicians – regular readers will know this, and I know it’s not very Christian like to hold this level of disdain for a group of individuals, but I can’t help myself.
- And let’s be honest, for the most part, they do make it very easy for us mere mortals to hold them in utter contempt.
- This year we have elections in the U.S in November. And the two contenders, both geriatric, 1 resembling a badly aging orange type fruit, and the other struggling to string a coherent sentence together, are the best that “the land of the free” can offer. Oh, woe is us.
- In a few weeks’ time the British will also go to the polls. And it appears likely that we will see a regime change there as well.
- The incumbent Tories, whose recent corruption scandals rival those of a small Country of the Southern tip of Africa, will in all likelihood lose to a bunch of socialists who will try to spend their way to popularity and success.
- Mind you, that recipe of borrowing and spending your way to economic success seems to be the way of the world these days.
- And then of course Its election week here in South Africa and if the polls are to be believed it should be very interesting.
- So many Parties, promising so many free things, you may as well theme this election as an “Oprah special”.
- Our own beloved President even called the ubiquitous “family gathering” last night on the public broadcaster, to tell all 3 viewers why they should be voting for the Countries liberators.
- The only surprise was that he was not sitting on a cash filled couch while he delivered his speech, a speech with lots of commitment to fix the things that have plagued our small Country for the last few decades.
- I have to concede though that Democracy is better than the alternative. Only marginally, but still better. In the same way that Cancer is marginally better than Ebola.
- It could be worse – after all Vladimir Putin has been declared the winner of the 2028 Soviet…I mean Russian election.
- As I sit here today I am still undecided on who to vote for, or even if I should be voting at all.
- However, as my oldest daughter once reminded me, many people gave their lives in South Africa to afford us the privilege of democracy. The least that one can do is go que and cast one’s ballot in the hope that the power of the people leads to a better outcome.
- And so, as a responsible forecaster I suppose I should opine on the likely outcome for this important event in our troubled history.
- It seems very probable that the ruling party will lose their outright parliamentary majority. Which means that for the first time in our democratic history we will require coalition power sharing.
- For the last few weeks South Africans have been trying to decipher what those power sharing arrangements will look like.
- Will it be the ANC and other left leaning parties like the EFF and/or MK? To be sure this will be the very worst economic outcome!
- Or will it be the ANC and the DA? In theory this would be the most “positive” economic outcome.
- Our desk view here is that neither of these outcomes is likely.
- Our view is that the ANC will get somewhere between 44% and 47% of the national vote. Meaning that they will be able to partner with some of the smaller parties on the ballot.
- They may have to offer up some cabinet positions – perhaps the “Minister of stationary”, or a deputy minister of “Military underwear”, and et voila, they will be able to get over the line.
- If this is the case, we expect more of the same for the next 5 years. Not an immediate disaster but also not reason for euphoria.
- Anything less than 42% makes it a little more complicated.
- The real complexity comes in at Provincial level, and this is where the horse trading will happen.
- The rise of MK in Kwa-Zulu puts this region in play. Gauteng is up for grabs as well, and perhaps the DA will require some humility in the Western Cape.
- It will take some time to untangle all the potential outcomes, but South Africans have already seen the recent benefits of this election.
- We have not had any loadshedding for close on two months now, that’s real progress. Democratic benefits for all.
- For your benefit and to assist our readers with some planning, we have conducted an office poll on how long it will take after the election for loadshedding to kick in again.
- Some of the more cynical have said that 30 May is the most likely. The most popular view is that 12 June seems to be the date. And the bell curve seems to suggest that 27 June is potentially the first time the lights go out.
- We did have one or two individuals who were extremely bullish, suggesting that loadshedding will only kick in after August 2024. My view is that these individuals were simply pricing in some optionality.
- The other benefit of democracy in action is that we get a public holiday on Wednesday.
- The fact that the IEC counts slower than a grade 1 kid who quickly runs out of fingers means that will only get an indication of voting patterns closer to the weekend. Therefore, this week should be a write off as far as market action is concerned.
- There you have it. Our exclusive on this year’s election.
- If you are a South African, choose wisely, this year’s party will last for another 5 years.
