- I have never quite understood the allure of puzzle building. I have tried to sit down and reassemble what can only be described as an immensely frustrating waste of time.
- I can manage 8 piece puzzles – beyond that, my frustration levels continue to rise to rival that of sitting in stage six load-shedding traffic, trying hard not to use abbreviated Latin at the taxi driver squeezing into a space that ordinarily wouldn’t accommodate a small fish.
- Also, why do most thousand-piece puzzles have 800 pieces that need to be put together when your only clue is predominantly blue sky?
- For me, it's pure torture trying to do one of these things. I normally end up forcing pieces together that obviously don’t fit and then when it nears completion I use scissors to cut the ends off of the pieces that remain, proudly proclaiming victory in what can only be described as my Picasso interpretation of a bowl of fruit. Tears have been known to be shed.
- These days, trading currencies is a little like this.
- In this modern information age, it seems as if new pieces of the puzzle are being added all the time, and my ability to decipher the puzzle is declining in lockstep.
- All this information also means that the picture is never completed, and what started out as a leopard in the field quickly morphs into a New York skyline, which then becomes a picture of a hot air balloon the next day.
- I realise I’m rambling a little bit, but let me try and make the picture a little clearer, if you will excuse the pun.
- Right now as things stand the domestic picture in South Africa is less than stellar:
- The treasury is empty, filled with cobwebs and little else. The Government in their wisdom gave all the excess revenue of a few years ago away in social grants and SOE support. Now commodity prices have fallen coupled with poor GDP, resulting in declining tax collection. This means that our already high debt-to-GDP ratio is set to rise even further. Etcetera etcetera etcetera...
- Load shedding ….etcetera etcetera etcetera
- Transnet …etcetera
- Crime
- Corruption
- Etcetera etcetera
- None of this is good for the Rand ….and so in this puzzle, it is fairly easy to construct the broad frame. As most puzzle experts will tell you …always start with the outer edges.
- Building the rest of the picture is not as easy!
- Let’s move on to China:
- China has been struggling… the economy is sluggish and the authorities are trying hard to add all sorts of stimulus measures to re-ignite its flagging economy, particularly in its property sector which makes up almost 30% of the broader DGP construction (again please excuse the weak pun)
- Does this mean that China’s cheap money eventually finds its way into emerging markets yield? or….
- Does China's poor economy mean that commodity prices continue to struggle leading to declining SA resource exports?
- Is the puzzle a picture of a horse or a giraffe and is the ass end facing left or right?
- Europe :
- Inflation is still high, but the economy is quickly disappearing down the drain.
- Do they still need to hike rates? or are they concerned with further economic decline and therefore the Europeans are done with the hiking cycle?
- Is it now a picture of the Serengeti plains filled with grazing Zebras and Wildebeest? And is the ass end even visible?
- Over in the USA:
- Is inflation beaten? Or do rising oil prices mean there is still some pain to be felt?
- Is the economy about to enter a minor (or major) recession, or does it keep outperforming?
- Does the US’s major debt mountain keep rising, leading to an endless supply of bonds that keep prices lower (yields higher) for longer, outweighing any potential EM support emanating from China?
- Japan, the UK, Ukraine Russia [add your own factor here]
- Depending on where you stand on many of these issues your picture may emerge very differently from mine.
- I guess that’s why markets move around.
- Safe to say I won’t be entering any puzzle-building championships any time soon unless they allow entrants to use scissors and hammers as tools to assist.
- And for those wondering, there are actually associations that puzzle builders can belong to. I presume that they have resident psychologists on hand to assist with the fallout … Puzzle rage is surely a real thing.
