TF: On the other hand, equity markets, which I'm quite happy to tell you to the end of October, MSCI World was for 12 months delivered a 34% return versus S& P up 38%. Eurostox was up 25% and FTSE up 22% - all in dollars - while gold was up 38% in 12 months, and oil was slightly down at 16%, but the Rand appreciated by 6% in the last 12 months.
So equity markets have performed, watches have declined. Is there value in this diversified portfolio? And then specifically, how do you each diversify your own portfolios? And I think we've covered a lot of it, but you don't have to be too specific. But...
IM: What that tells you right around diversification is it is around you limit downside and upside, like it's, that's the whole theory of it, right? So if you hear that and you go, if you're in both equities and some of these alternatives, there is a bit of a balance. It seems like there's a bit of a counter, right?
And that is the thinking around diversification. Obviously there is an argument to go, if you perfectly diversify, if you're going to diversify, then you'll actually have no returns like that. That's almost…
CM: But again, it all neutralizes each other.
IM: Yeah, that's the risk you run. But I think, to my mind, even if you think about those stats, as I was saying, for me, the alternatives one is a much smaller percentage of the broader portfolio. That's the first thing for me personally.
And secondly, the truth is, if I'm really honest, is any value that I, that you derive from what would be those alternatives for me would be almost upside that I'm not accounting for.
So, I've seldom bought, be it art, be it a watch, whatever it may be, and gone, you know, let me keep watching what the value does. It's almost like I forget about it almost. So, so I don't really. And for me personally, if we're talking art, the dividends of the art is the enjoyment of the pieces and my ability to look at them and draw inspiration from them.
So it is a slightly different thing in terms of how I think about it personally- I still have quite a long-term view on things. I'm certain even year-on-year, I'm not going, “what have equities done this year” versus like, I'm taking like a 15, 20 year view anyway, right? So you can, you can, that allows you to think about things slightly differently.
So I guess one of the principles around diversification is also where you find yourself, be it age in your career, your short-term liquidity needs, all of those things. So I think that informs a lot of where I'm at. And then certainly a lot of my thinking around investment is incredibly long term. So the blips at the moment, that's just noise for me. I'm not really paying attention.
TF: Yeah, I think liquidity is also key because I don't know how quickly you can turn around a whiskey portfolio or a car or something like that. But I agree that there's an, there's a place for everything in this market and it is time in the game. It's definitely time in the game. How do you diversify your portfolio, Cumesh?
CM: So I think just saying, if I look at alternatives and just on, on, and this is again, not intended to be financial advice, it's just my personal view. I'd, I would look at alternatives being 5-7% of what I'd have from a savings and investments perspective. And it's also my 5-7% of fun, enjoyment, aspiration, inspiration, all of those things.
And, because on balance, you've got to have your longer-term view of where you want to have your savings. What would you do if tomorrow the world changed, and you needed to, for example, liquidate, or you've got to think of things like illness, changing roles, changing jobs, etc. Where would you be? I don't necessarily want to be going into my cupboard to say, “Look, I've got to take my stamp collection out and just dust off a piece of art and go find a buyer”.
So you've got to balance all of that against what would your short-term liquidity needs be? What would be your longer-term liquidity needs be? And what do you do if there's a rainy day? And then say, what would I allocate?
TF: I like that question of what would you do if there's a rainy day.
CM: And that's often what's in the back of my mind. What happens if there's a rainy day and I may have just gone and bought a really expensive piece of art and it rains the next day. Can I still withstand the rain?
TF: And the fees you're going to pay on auction to sell it.
Are there any tax benefits that you see in these markets we've discussed?
CM: It's difficult to talk about the tax benefits because I think the scope for appreciation and you take some of these clauses and there's no real capital gains tax implications. Some of them are actually excluded from capital gains tax, etc. So again, there's risk that comes with it. Yeah. But that does mean there's opportunity if you have a very firm view.
TF: That's why the wealthy are drawn to it. Yeah. But I mean, you can consult our tax and fiduciary team if you need some advice for your state.
CM: Absolutely.