Post election, what comes next?

South Africa’s elections have to be held within 90 days of the expiry date of the current term of the National Assembly and provincial legislatures on 21 May 2024. After the election on 29th May members of Parliament are sworn in and the President elected “not more than 14 days after the election result has been declared” – Parliament.

With South Africa holding national and provincial elections every five years to elect the new National Assembly and provincial legislatures in each province, both the governing of the provinces and of the country will be decided.

In the National Assembly, there are 400 seats, the maximum set by the Constitution”. “200 seats are reserved for the National list (to be contested only by political parties)” IEC. The waning support for the ANC will reduce its power in the National Assembly.  

That is, in 2019 the ANC received 57.5% of voter support in the last National election, down from 65.2% in 2014, 65.9% in 2009 and 69.9% in 2004 but polled most recently between 40% and 45%. Tomorrow’s final election results are expected by 2nd June. 

The IEC notes further that of the 400 seats in the National Assembly, the “remaining 200 seats are divided up among the nine” provinces, “contested by parties and independent candidates”. Independent candidates can only hold one seat. 

“The number of seats for each province are different as the number will be determined on the basis of the size of the population in each province. The Commission will use Census data as the base scientific data on population” IEC. 

In particular, “members of the National Legislature (National Assembly) and the nine provincial legislatures are elected based on a party-list, compensatory proportional representation (PR) system.” 

“This means that political parties were represented in proportion to their electoral support. With the new Act (Electoral Amendment Act), independent candidates are accommodated within the system.”

Both the provincial and national outcomes are key for parliamentary processes, including passing legislature, the National Budget etc. The ANC’s election support has surprised to the upside compared to the polls in the past, which may see it nearer 50%, but is not expected to take on a destabilising coalition to policy continuity.

“If more than one nomination is received (for the position of President), the Chief Justice announces that a secret ballot will take place… and suspends proceedings to allow for preparations for the voting process” – Parliament.

“In the unlikely scenario that a new president isn’t elected within 30 days because two candidates get equal votes, Parliament is dissolved and a new election is called", and “President Cyril Ramaphosa and his current Cabinet remain in their positions in an acting capacity.” – Institute for Security Studies.

“Once the president is elected, she or he forms a cabinet from among the MPs. There’s no time limit for this. The president can nominate two people from outside the National Assembly.”

With the polls continuing to show that the ANC will most likely remain the largest political party, and so achieve the highest number of seats in Parliament, much will still depend on voter turnout, with voter apathy on the rise. 

“The Constitution provides that, after a general election, the first sitting of the National Assembly must take place at a time and date determined by the Chief Justice, but not more than 14 days after the election result has been declared.” – Parliament of South Africa. 

The first sitting of parliament of the seventh democratic Parliament will then likely occur in mid-June, to elect the President, then “the Assembly will normally adjourn for several days to enable the newly elected President to be sworn in and appoint his/her Cabinet”.

“This is followed by the official opening of the new Parliament at which the President must deliver an Opening Address at a date and time to be announced by the Speaker”, with a second SONA occurring in an election year.

The next election will be the local government elections in 2026, which on a national amalgamated basis would give insight into the ANC’s support base, which would benefit from a strengthening in economic growth to over 3.0% y/y on a sustained basis, in order to notably work down unemployment.