From Antwerp to Karachi: The growing challenges of global port congestion

European port congestion may significantly worsen due to a series of industrial strikes in Belgium, which have brought operations at the country's primary port, Antwerp, to a near standstill, resulting in bottlenecks in Northern Europe. We foresee significant trucking congestion across the region, which will intensify the situation.

The European summer holidays between June and July will further exacerbate backlogs in logistics operations. Many businesses will be closed or operating with reduced staff, leading to increased delays. We recommend placing your orders ahead of time to mitigate the impact of these seasonal disruptions.

The recent joint venture between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, known as the Gemini service, aims to improve reliability in shipping schedules. However, during the integration phase, we have observed rollings of containers due to vessel scheduling changes and port congestions. We are working closely with our partners to ensure that these issues are resolved and communicated to mitigate any risk.

Pakistan shippers face challenges due to trade restrictions with India

Pakistan's key container ports, Karachi and Port Qasim, are reportedly facing severe congestion following the suspension of direct services by major shipping lines due to the trade ban with India. This disruption was triggered by an order from New Delhi on 2 May that barred carriers from moving Pakistan-origin cargo through Indian ports, leading the Pakistani government to implement reciprocal measures.

Industry sources indicate that this sudden embargo has created turmoil, leaving ocean carriers with insufficient time to formulate alternative plans. Consequently, Pakistani exports have been left stranded, with containers diverted to other Asian transhipment ports, notably Colombo in Sri Lanka.

In response, ocean carriers swiftly reorganised their traditional India-Pakistan routes, introducing new stops at Colombo and Middle Eastern ports such as Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa and Oman’s Salalah to enable connections for Karachi cargo via feeder or shuttle services.

US-China tariff developments

The 90-day pause in US-China tariff war is welcomed, creating a small window of opportunity for importers to place orders from China. This surge in demand is likely to increase booking volumes, leading to shorter ocean freight rate validities. This will result in container imbalance and shortages, further driving up demand.

This situation is expected to create challenges in securing containers and space with shipping lines from China's main ports to South Africa for the next three months. We have seen short-notice schedule changes creating unpredictable transit times.

This demand will increase airfreight shipments from China. Anticipate higher SPOT rate increases due to limited space availability and options.

Congestion at transshipment ports

Transshipment ports, particularly Singapore, will experience a significant rise in congestion influenced by the increased bookings from China. This congestion will likely influence backlogs and will contribute to the increase of ocean freight rates.

We have already seen shipping lines implement General Rate Increases (GRI) from China on the 1st of June, including Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Southeast Asia to South Africa.

Depending on the demand, anticipate further ocean freight rate increases mid-June.

We urge importers to forecast bookings in advance and build an additional two weeks into transit times to mitigate paying higher ocean freight rates and the disappointment of delays. 

Transnet faces potential industrial action from ongoing wage negotiations

On 8 May 2025, Transnet announced its involvement in a facilitated conciliation process through the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation, and Arbitration (CCMA) to address the ongoing wage dispute with the United National Transport Union (UNTU).

Transnet's final wage proposal offers a cumulative increase of 17.5% over three years. However, UNTU members have voted in favour of commencing industrial action. Throughout the negotiation process, Transnet has engaged in discussions aimed at achieving a fair and sustainable agreement that recognises the valuable contributions of its employees while ensuring the organisation's long-term viability and competitiveness.

If UNTU goes ahead with the strike, Transnet's immediate focus will be on maintaining business continuity and ensuring the safety of its employees and assets. Furthermore, Transnet continues to discuss the reasonableness and fairness of the wage offer with its employees, which is above inflation and exceeds most settlements in both the public and private sectors.

Should the strike persist, it could disrupt national supply chains, resulting in longer lead times for export and import cargo, as well as complications for transporters collecting containers from the ports for scheduled deliveries. This situation may also impact the reliability of vessel schedules and could lead to potential congestion surcharges to cover operational costs.

Shanghai-Durban freight rates decreased

Ocean freight rates from Shanghai to Durban have consistently decreased over quarter 1 2025. Anticipated rate increases based on demand are expected as we head into the traditional peak season from June onwards.

Our expert analysis of global logistics enabled successful supply chain solutions for importers

We understand that these developments may present challenges, and we are here to support you in navigating them. Our team is committed to providing you with the best possible solutions available and will keep you updated on any further changes in the logistics landscape. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the team.