As we approach 2026, a combination of lower interest rates and freight costs is expected to enable importers and exporters to operate more competitively. However, it's important to note that the forthcoming Chinese New Year will mark the longest holiday in history, with China announcing 16 days off for employees when accounting for weekends and additional working days. The Spring Festival will span nine days (15-23 February), while the Labor Day (1-5 May) and National Day (1-7 October) holidays will last five and seven days, respectively.
Chinese New Year 2026: Longest holiday in history
The arrival of the 2026 Chinese New Year (Year of the Horse) brings both challenges and opportunities for businesses within the logistics sector. Seasonal demand surges are likely to increase shipping volumes, requiring proactive planning to manage potential delays. The container shipping industry is currently navigating a complex environment characterised by reduced demand in certain markets and possible congestion at key transshipment points like Singapore as an example.
As businesses prepare for this peak period, it's crucial to assess essential shipping needs, maintain clear communication with suppliers, and ensure documentation accuracy to avoid disruptions. This environment highlights the importance of strategic load planning, emphasising the need for shipment consolidation and route optimisation.
Furthermore, companies should evaluate the reliability of their logistics partners and carriers, as consistent delivery schedules greatly affect operational efficiency. By engaging logistics partners in advance, businesses can secure necessary resources and mitigate risks associated with the busy holiday season.
In summary, with careful planning and strong partnerships, companies can effectively navigate the logistics challenges posed by the upcoming peak season and position themselves for success in 2026. Expect that Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) will be introduced by shipping lines at the beginning of January 2026 due to fluctuations in supply and demand.
Consider airfreight as an alternative. However please be conscious that there is high demand for consol space on aircrafts as passenger luggage always takes preference, this means that airfreight cargo will always get offloaded for passenger luggage.
Upgrade your Airfreight Service to Airfreight Express (Flash), paying the premium with your service provider mitigates the risk of offloads and delays to meet your delivery requirements.
Suez Canal route resumption: A game-changer?
Additionally, following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, potential impacts on container shipping may arise if lines resume transit through the Suez Canal. Such a shift could lead to a significant rise in global vessel capacity and an influx of cargo into Europe. An immediate return to Suez routing might temporarily double arrivals from Asia, resulting in a 39% increase in port handling volumes compared to previous peaks.
Even a gradual transition could lead to a 10% increase above record highs, posing considerable challenges for European port infrastructure. Overall, a shift back to Suez routing could free up approximately 2.1 million TEU of nominal capacity, representing about 6.5% of the global fleet.
Global schedule reliability
The Global Liner Performance report for September 2025 indicates a slight month-on-month improvement in global schedule reliability, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 65.2%, alongside a year-on-year increase of 14.7 percentage points. Maersk ranked as the most reliable carrier with a reliability rating of 77.0%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 73.6%.
The report also introduces new metrics for evaluating carrier performance based on all arrivals compared to trade-specific arrivals. Notably, Gemini Cooperation achieved a reliability rating of 89.1% for all arrivals, while Wan Hai recorded the lowest at 47.9%.
Current delays at ports around the world
| China incl Singapore | Germany | UK | USA | India | |||||
| Port | Days | Port | Days | Port | Days | Port | Days | Port | Days |
| Ningbo | 1 | Bremen | 0 | Felixstowe | 3 | Los Angeles | 1 | Mangalore | 17 |
| Shanghai | 1 | Hamburg | 2 | Belfast | 0 | Long Beach | 2 | Hazira | 2 |
| Shekou | 1 | London G. | 1 | New York | 2 | Tuticorin | 3 | ||
| Qingdao | 1 | Liverpool | 1 | Charleston | 3 | Kolkata | 3 | ||
| Singapore | 1 | Savannah | 3 | Mumbai | 1 | ||||
Note:
* Number of days delay to be expected at global ports by country and port (source: gocomet.com)
G20 gains for South Africa
On a positive note, Deputy President Paul Mashatile recently met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang during the G20 Summit to advance South Africa's strategic goals in trade, investment and industrialisation, while also strengthening diplomatic relationships with China. Mashatile emphasised the importance of increasing value-added exports and attracting more Chinese investment in key sectors, as well as integrating South African businesses into global value chains to promote inclusive growth.
Additionally, Transnet has partnered with the French Development Agency (AFD) and the European Union to decarbonise South Africa's ports and rail operations, backed by a €300 million loan. This initiative, announced during the G20 Summit, aims to enhance infrastructure, transition to renewable energy and position Transnet within the green hydrogen value chain. This investment reflects positive engagement from the private sector in improving port and rail infrastructure, ultimately leading to greater efficiency as we approach 2026.
Current delays at South African ports
| Durban | Port Elizabeth | Cape Town | |||
| Port | Days | Port | Days | Port | Days |
| Pier 1 | 4 | PECT | 0 | CTCT | 12 (wind) |
| Pier 2 | 4 | NCT | 3 | MPT | 0 |
| Durban Point | 4 | ||||
Shanghai-Durban freight rates
Conclusion
We understand that these developments may present challenges, and we are here to support you in navigating them. Our team is committed to providing you with the best possible solutions available and will keep you updated on any further changes in the logistics landscape. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us.
Our expert analysis of global logistics enabled successful supply chain solutions for importers. We understand that these developments may present challenges, and we are here to support you in navigating them. Our team is committed to providing you with the best possible solutions available and will keep you updated on any further changes in the logistics landscape. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the team.
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