Tariffs, delays and demand: August 2025 logistics outlook for SA importers

South Africa hit with 30% US export tariff: monitoring impact on strategic sectors begins

With today's announcement confirming tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, it is imperative that importers and exporters rethink their business strategies to mitigate against risk. Establishing robust relationships with suppliers will be essential for navigating geopolitical uncertainties and by diversifying sourcing strategies and cultivating alternative supplier partnerships, businesses can lessen the effects of these disruptions.

Creating clear communication channels with partners and developing joint crisis management plans with key suppliers can enable quick and coordinated responses for unforeseen events. This approach should include contingency plans for alternative sourcing, rerouting shipments and managing inventory levels effectively.

The downstream effects of these tariffs on logistics operations and impact on cost structures are yet to be seen, but early visibility will be key to managing potential disruptions.

The ongoing “Trade War” is an example that creates uncertainty and volatility of global markets.

Impact on the auto industry

As an example, South African car exports to the United States experienced a significant decline in the first quarter of 2025, plummeting by over 80% in April and May due to import tariffs, which affected automakers' sales, according to the industry association Naamsa.

The United States is South Africa's second-largest trading partner and a crucial market for vehicles produced in the country, which have historically enjoyed duty-free access under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

This month, Trump has intensified the global trade offensive initiated in April, announcing tariffs on more than a dozen countries, including South Africa that now faces a 30% tariff.

This new tariff is in addition to the 25% duty on cars implemented in April which has also been extended to automotive parts since May.

South Africa’s global share of USA destined automotive exports is 6%, so the significant new tariffs will affect the economy and unemployment in the short term.

Find out which other industries face potential headwinds from the new tariffs

Market diversification for the auto industry and other key sectors in South Africa is essential with the identification of emerging markets to take advantage of like Europe and Africa.

The global geopolitics landscape is ever changing and there is much to keep track of. Geopolitical unrest has led us into an era marked by significant supply chain risks where we have seen unpredictable rate levels, transit times, and trade lane shifts just to name a few.

Mitigating supply chain disruptions requires a level of understanding of geopolitical risks. Isolated wars throughout the world disrupt trade flows with an impact on freight costs and availability of commodities like oil and gas, agricultural products wheat, corn & metals. We have seen an increase in these commodities creating uncertainty of prices soon. Ongoing influencing wars: Ukraine – Russia / India – Pakistan / Isreal – Palestine / Thailand – Cambodia.

Navigating peak season

The tariffs come as peak season continues to put pressure on trade. Shipping lines are reducing the availability of 40ft Non-Operating Reefer (NOR) containers and are prioritising limited space for standard FCL (Full Container Load) containers. This is leading to shortages, particularly of 20ft (6M) containers from major shipping lines such as CMA and Maersk.

With booking volumes exceeding forecasts, sailings are facing severe rollovers, resulting in delays of up to three sailings from South China and at least one to two weeks from East China. Additionally, Maersk has suspended online spot bookings for over a month.

As space becomes increasingly constrained, freight rates are anticipated to rise even further with peak season surcharges being imposed.

Potential solutions for importers include:

• To place bookings in advance
• Accurate forecasting for planning purposes
• Depending on volumes, consider an alternative mode of transport. 

Change mode of shipping

At Investec, we acknowledge that data is essential to prompt decision-making to mitigate disruptions where we have identified API (Application Programming Interface) integration to support supply chain requirements.

Based on the above we have seen traditional FCL (Full Container Loads) volumes reduce, and importers shift modes of transport to LCL (Less than Container) where volumes are not sufficient to fill an entire container and the space is shared with other importers.

Another option is buyers' consolidation, which combines multiple shipments from different suppliers into a single container FCL for a single buyer or consignee. This approach reduces shipping costs by optimising space and minimising expenses associated with multiple LCL load shipments.

Airfreight is still an alternative for “just in time” shipments, where goods are delivered to the consignee when needed.

All the above modes are dependent on inventory requirements.

Note:

* The typical vessel routing from the far east is via Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Singapore (5-day port delay) before arrival in South Africa

* Number of days delay to be expected at Global Ports by Country and Port (source: gocomet.com)

Shanghai-Durban freight rates 

Anticipated rate increases based on demand are expected as we head into the traditional peak season

PSS (Peak Season Surcharges) are being implemented by major shipping lines, and we anticipate more to follow. 

Conclusion

We understand that these developments may present challenges, and we are here to support you in navigating them. Our team is committed to providing you with the best possible solutions available and will keep you updated on any further changes in the logistics landscape. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Our expert analysis of global logistics enabled successful supply chain solutions for importers

We understand that these developments may present challenges, and we are here to support you in navigating them. Our team is committed to providing you with the best possible solutions available and will keep you updated on any further changes in the logistics landscape. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the team.