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Black Friday sale

02 Nov 2026

Importers' Connect

 Elections, the rand and the race to Black Friday

 

With elections bringing fresh uncertainty to the rand and Black Friday fast approaching, South African importers face a difficult balancing act. Currency volatility, port delays and pressure on consumer spending are complicating peak-season planning.

In this week's episode of Importers Connect, Vernon Sinden and Dr Greg Cline unpack the implications for landed costs, the growing reliance on air freight and whether anticipated fuel price relief could offer businesses some breathing room.

Transcript

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00:00 - How could elections affect rand volatility?

Vernon: Welcome to another episode of Importers Connect. I'm Vernon Sinden, and today we're joined by Dr Greg Cline. We'll discuss rand volatility during election week, including the US elections and what they could mean for the currency.

We'll also give you a brief update on the ports. Greg?

Dr Greg: Good morning. It's good to be here and to share some further insights with your listeners.

Vernon: Thanks for being here.

Dr Greg: Great to be here. We've got elections coming up on Wednesday, which is always an interesting time.

There's concern about rand volatility, particularly what might happen in the major metros and the potential impact on national reforms. People are concerned about service delivery and the possibility of more fragmented governance after the elections, depending on the results.

Generally, we see some rand weakness followed by strengthening once the uncertainty settles after an election. So there may not be too much to worry about in terms of the local impact. The rand has been trading a little weaker than in recent weeks, though, probably more in line with developments in the US.

We're seeing significant investment going into what some call the AI bubble, and the US elections will unfold over the course of this week.

01:13 - What does a weaker rand mean for importers?

Vernon: Yes, and we don't know what will happen there. We've spoken several times on the podcast about how the rand and exchange rates affect total landed costs. That's particularly important for importers.

With all the delays we're experiencing, cargo can be held up at sea, tying up working capital. Exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, have a major impact on freight costs and the final landed cost in South Africa. Clients want some predictability, and the shipped-on-board date matters.

We're seeing port delays of between 15 and 20 days, and the situation remains fluid. That's important for listeners to bear in mind.

01:56 - Could port delays disrupt Black Friday deliveries?

Dr Greg: Agreed. On the less positive side, gold prices have dropped to around $4,000 an ounce, while Brent crude is trading above $110 a barrel.

The silver lining is that we're expecting a fuel price levy cut of around R3 a litre for diesel and a reduction of about R1.50 for petrol. Inland delivery costs could therefore come down. There is some hope. The biggest concern at this time of year is Black Friday and peak-season trade.

In South Africa, Black Friday trading extends over a longer period, normally starting around the first week of November. But roughly 9% to 10% of total seasonal trade takes place over the three or four days of Black Friday weekend.

For importers, it's critical to have sufficient inventory available to sell. Getting stock onto shelves depends on the port delays you mentioned earlier. Goods need to arrive at port, be offloaded and reach stores in time.

It's still a little early, but there's concern that goods won't get off the vessels and into stores in time for Black Friday.

03:03 - Is air freight becoming a necessary alternative?

Vernon: Absolutely. If you're only shipping now, the goods won't arrive in time. We've seen a significant increase in air freight volumes among our clients.

With so much uncertainty, air freight is becoming a more attractive option for getting inventory onto shelves quickly. Oil and jet fuel prices also influence costs, although we're seeing some relief in local transport costs.

That gives importers a little breathing room.

03:30 - How is consumer spending pressure affecting the economy?

Dr Greg: Absolutely. Alongside port delays, the economy is under strain. Consumers have less disposable income than we anticipated at the beginning of the year, and interest rates have moved about 50 basis points in the wrong direction since then.

Consumer debt is also increasing. More people are spending money on online gambling. I saw figures recently that surprised me: a year or two ago, around R40 billion was spent on online gambling.

Today, that figure is above R100 billion. For context, around R60 billion was withdrawn from retirement savings through the two-pot system. The increase in online gambling spending compared with a year ago is roughly equivalent to that amount.

That leaves consumers with less disposable income to support the economy.

Vernon: That's not a positive sign. To wrap up, it will be interesting to see what happens with the elections. We expect delayed deliveries on Wednesday the 4th, although the ports will remain operational.

Port delays are continuing. We'll also be watching the US elections and their influence on the US dollar/rand exchange rate. Keep an eye on those developments, and we'll unpack them further in the next episode.

Thanks for joining us, Greg.

Dr Greg: Thanks for having me.

Vernon: Until next time, trade confidently.

Disclaimer: In importing, timing matters, delays matter, currency moves matter. This is Importers Connect, your weekly briefing on the logistics, freight and forex trends shaping South African trade. From port congestion and customs updates to shipping costs and market movements, we bring you the insight behind the headlines so your business can plan with greater certainty.

The views and opinions expressed by third-party guests in this podcast are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Investec. This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment or other professional advice, guidance or recommendations.

Investec Business and Commercial Banking is a division of Investec Bank Limited, an authorised financial services provider. To learn more or get in touch, visit investec.com.

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Vernon Sinden

Vernon Sinden
Head of Logistics, Investec Business and Commercial Banking

With over 20 years in the freight forwarding industry, Vernon Sinden has cultivated a deep expertise in logistics, supply chain management, and international trade. Starting in the courier sector, he developed skills in customs compliance and transportation management before moving to leading multinational freight forwarding companies, focusing on trade and carrier procurement.

Vernon has successfully managed complex logistics operations, built strong stakeholder relationships, and implemented innovative solutions to enhance efficiency. 

 

Dr Greg Cline

Francois Herman
Working Capital Specialist, Investec Business and Commercial Banking

Dr Greg Cline provides insight on business and commercial banking, economic trends, international trade, supply chains and business strategy. Working closely with South African businesses, he helps organisations navigate changing market conditions, manage risk and identify opportunities for sustainable growth. His commentary explores the economic forces, trade dynamics and supply chain developments shaping business performance, offering practical perspectives on resilience, competitiveness and growth in South Africa and global markets.

 


Listen to previous episodes

What does another US$700 per container cost you?

Your next shipment could cost more before it even leaves port.

From 1 November, average ocean freight rates from Shanghai to Durban are expected to rise by around US$700 per container. But the real cost goes beyond the freight invoice.

Longer lead times, urgent replacement stock and cash tied up in transit can quickly change the margin on orders you’ve already committed to.

In this week’s Importers’ Connect, Vernon Sinden and Francois Herman discuss what importers should recalculate before confirming their next booking. 

The cost of standing still

When shipments stall, cash stays tied up. From scarce shipping space in China to queues off Durban, delays are stretching the gap between paying suppliers and getting paid.

In this week’s Importers’ Connect, Francois Hermann and Vernon Sinden examine the squeeze on working capital, whether premium freight is worth the price and why stock and cash flow need to be planned together.

China shipping delays: The cost to South African importers

Shipping delays in China, rising fuel costs and cancelled sailings are putting pressure on South African importers.

In this week’s Importers’ Connect, Francois Herman and Vernon Sinden explore what these disruptions mean for delivery times and landed costs, and how businesses can plan ahead to avoid stock shortages.

Can Durban’s port reset deliver?

Durban’s port has plans for a reset. Will importers feel the difference?

In this week’s Importers’ Connect, Francois Herman and Vernon Sinden examine how a planned truck booking system, terminal upgrades and greater use of rail could ease delays and improve delivery planning. 

They also explore the proposed Coega Manganese Export Corridor and what private investment could mean for South Africa’s trade.

The logistics beyond the port

In this week’s episode of Importers’ Connect, Vernon Sinden and Francois Herman explore how rail reliability affects delivery timing, working capital and landed costs, alongside peak-season surcharges, Golden Week disruptions and practical ways to strengthen your supply chain and plan with greater certainty.

Better Visibility. Better decisions

Many importers are still reacting to disruptions after they happen

In this week's Importers' Connect, we explore how better data is helping businesses get ahead of problems.

Topics include:

  • digital integration
  • real-time shipment visibility
  • better supply-chain data
Importing into a slower economy

Rising imports may signal opportunity, but higher fuel costs and constrained logistics leave little room for error. Vernon Sinden and Francois Herman explain how importers can manage freight, inventory, landed costs and cash flow more effectively.

The Red Sea is reopening, but supply chain risks remain

As shipping lines cautiously return to the Red Sea, Vernon Sinden and Francious Herman examine what the shift could mean for freight rates, transit times and supply chains. They also explain why South African importers should maintain longer lead times, diversify routes and carriers, and prepare for continued disruption.

The long way to cheaper freight

In this week's Importers Connect, Vernon Sinden and Francois Herman unpack the latest developments. They explore how businesses can manage delays, optimise cash flow and take advantage of lower freight costs.

The system change causing delays across Durban Port

Three issues have created significant delays at Durban Port this week: a new terminal booking system, registration challenges and growing congestion.In this week's Importers' Connect, Vernon Sinden and Francois Herman unpack: what's really driving the disruption, the knock-on impact across South Africa's supply chain and the practical steps importers can take to minimise risk.

The cost of bad weather

In this episode of Importers Connect, hosts Vernon Sinden and Francois Herman unpack what changing weather patterns could mean for South African importers, from longer lead times and shifting freight capacity to getting stock on the shelves in time for Black Friday and the festive season.

With disruption difficult to predict, planning ahead and keeping your options open could make all the difference.

One supply chain. Not three problems

In this episode, he examines vessel queues and efforts to tackle truck congestion around the Port of Durban, before turning to softer global air-freight demand and falling rates on key routes. For importers, the message is clear: resilience and optionality still matter.

A perfect storm in India

Monsoon flooding, vessel space shortages, peak-season demand, Red Sea disruption and transshipment bottlenecks are all putting pressure on freight rates and transit times. In this week's Importers' Connect, Vernon Sinden unpacks what's driving the disruption, why it's likely to persist over the coming months, and what importers can do now to mitigate risk.

The most unexpected supply chain cost may start after the vessel arrives

While much of the market remains focused on port congestion and peak season volumes, a different challenge is emerging for importers. In the latest episode of Importers' Connect, Vernon Sinden and Francois Hermann unpack how container collection delays, limited free-time agreements and growing detention and demurrage exposure could have a significant impact on landed costs.

The discussion explores:
1. Why improving port performance doesn't necessarily mean smoother cargo movement.
2. How booking system challenges are affecting container collections.
3. The difference between detention and demurrage charges.
4. How seemingly small delays can translate into substantial additional costs.

5. Practical steps importers can take to negotiate better free-time terms and reduce risk

Understanding these costs before they arise can help businesses protect margins, improve planning and avoid unwelcome surprises further down the supply chain.

 

The cost of congestion

In this episode of Importers' Connect, Vernon Sinden and Francois Herman explain why congestion is returning, what it means for South African importers, and how businesses can build resilience before delays become lost sales.

The tariff beneath the tiles

In this episode of Importers' Connect, join Francois Herman and Vernon Sinden as they unpack what the latest trade measures mean for South African importers, why focusing solely on the cheapest freight quote can prove costly, and how businesses can make smarter procurement decisions by understanding their total landed cost. 

Durban Port's new compliance rules take effect

In this week's Importers' Connect, Dylan Govender and Vernon Sinden unpack what the new driver compliance requirements at Durban Port mean for importers, provide an update on global shipping conditions, and discuss South Africa's rise to become the world's largest citrus exporter by volume.

A berth of fresh air for South Africa's ports

In this episode of Importers' Connect, Vernon Sinden and Dylan Govender, unpack the significance of Durban's transformation, the impact of ICTSI's investment in Durban Gateway Terminal, and what improved port performance means for inventory planning, working capital and trade competitiveness. They also explore why flexibility and contingency planning remain essential in an increasingly complex logistics environment.

Too many ships, too little sea

Vernon Sinden and Dylan Governor unpack how fresh US tariffs are reshaping global shipping routes and putting pressure on vessel capacity. The pair also discuss the latest developments around the PVOC programme and what businesses can do to protect working capital in an increasingly crowded market.

Winter and shortages squeeze importers

Vernon Sinden and Dylan Govender discuss the latest uncertainty around PVOC implementation, the growing appeal of NOR containers amid rising freight costs, and the importance of booking early as capacity pressures continue. They also touch on how winter weather could affect inland transport and delivery timelines.

The cost of uncertainty

 Investec's Dylan Govender and Vernon Sinden unpack the forces reshaping logistics flows – from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to South Africa's rail revival – and explore how importers can navigate uncertainty with better planning, supplier diversification and more flexible transport strategies. 

China imports enter a stricter era

South Africa’s new Pre-Export Verification of Conformity (PVoC) programme is reshaping the way businesses import from China, introducing stricter checks before goods leave port and raising the cost of getting compliance wrong.

In the first episode of Importers' Connect, Vernon Sinden, Head of Logistics at Investec Business and Commercial Banking, speaks to Dylan Govender, Head of Supply Chain, about what the changes mean for importers, where operational risks are emerging and why businesses need to build compliance into the buying and shipping process earlier than before.

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Disclaimer

For the full regulatory disclosures, click here.   

Investec Business and Commercial Banking, a division of Investec Bank Limited. Reg. No. 1969/004763/06. An authorised financial services provider (FSP No. 11750). Investec is committed to the Code of Banking Practice as regulated by the National Financial Ombud Scheme. 

 

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