China, Durban and a narrowing window for importers

A succession of typhoons across eastern China has disrupted operations at Shanghai and Ningbo, leaving vessels, containers and shipping schedules out of position. Ports have reopened, but the backlog remains significant and another weather system threatens to compound delays before the network has had time to recover.

Weather is also wreaking havoc in India. Monsoon disruption, high terminal utilisation, equipment constraints and congestion at Mundra and Nhava Sheva continue to affect schedule reliability, while transhipment and vessel bunching add further uncertainty to South Africa-bound cargo.

And then there is Durban.

After a period of encouraging improvement, congestion returned towards the end of July. Higher container volumes, longer vessel anchorage times and landside pressure have demonstrated how quickly operational gains can be tested when volumes increase.

For South African importers, this creates the possibility of disruption at both ends of the supply chain: cargo can leave origin late and then arrive into a congested destination.

The message for August is therefore less about finding the lowest freight rate and more about protecting certainty – securing space, understanding where your vessel sits in the queue and building enough flexibility into inventory and working-capital planning to absorb delays when they occur.

There is also a second-half planning issue that importers cannot afford to overlook. China's Mid-Autumn Festival from 25 to 27 September is followed almost immediately by the National Day holiday from 1 to 7 October. With only a narrow working window between the two, factories, trucking networks and export terminals are likely to experience a concentrated pre-holiday push.

For businesses building inventory for Black Friday and Christmas, the question is no longer simply when the purchase order is placed – it is whether the cargo can physically clear origin, secure its intended sailing and move through Durban with enough time left to reach the warehouse.

India: less dramatic, but persistently constrained

India's challenge is different. There has been no single event comparable to China's typhoons. Instead, the market is dealing with several smaller pressures simultaneously.

At Mundra, high terminal utilisation and vessel bunching continue to affect schedules, while weather-related disruption remains possible during the monsoon season.

At Nhava Sheva, strong cargo flows, yard congestion and landside bottlenecks continue to place pressure on terminal operations.

Chennai has also experienced periodic monsoon disruption alongside equipment and schedule instability.

The delays may appear relatively modest when measured purely in vessel waiting time, but that can understate the real impact on an importer.

A vessel waiting one or two days at origin can miss a downstream connection and turn a two-day delay into a week.

This is particularly relevant where South Africa-bound cargo relies on transhipment.

When Durban delays begin changing the shipping schedule

Perhaps the clearest indication of the pressure is that carriers have started adjusting rotations. Freight News reported that congestion at Durban Gateway Terminal forced Maersk and CMA CGM to omit additional eastbound Port Louis calls on their Safari service in order to protect onward schedules into Tanjung Pelepas.

That matters beyond Mauritius. When a carrier begins omitting ports to recover schedule integrity, it tells us that congestion at one terminal is affecting the economics and reliability of the broader service.

For importers, schedule recovery measures can translate into changed transhipment arrangements, revised vessel rotations and less certainty around future sailings.

A tale of two ends of the supply chain

The challenge facing South African importers this month is therefore unusual. At origin, weather and congestion are delaying departures.

At destination, higher volumes are placing renewed pressure on Durban.

That creates the possibility of what we might call compound delay.

A container could:

• leave the factory on time
• miss its original sailing because Shanghai is congested
• depart several days later
• arrive in Durban with a cluster of other delayed vessels
• and then wait again for berth or transport capacity.

No single delay appears catastrophic. Collectively, however, they can materially extend the cash-conversion cycle.

China's September and October holidays: the retail planning window is closing

The next major pressure point is already visible on the calendar.

China's official 2026 holiday schedule confirms the Mid-Autumn Festival from Friday 25 to Sunday 27 September, followed only days later by the National Day holiday from Thursday 1 to Wednesday 7 October.

On paper these are two separate holidays. Operationally, they should be treated as one extended period of disruption. Factories will be under pressure to complete orders before 25 September. Trucking and container demand typically increase ahead of the shutdown.

Export terminals experience heavier gate activity and vessel space becomes more valuable as businesses attempt to ship before factories and offices close.

The three working days between the two holidays provide very little room for recovery.

Once China returns after 7 October, the system then needs to clear the backlog created before and during the holidays. That can result in rolled cargo, fuller sailings and congestion extending well beyond the official holiday dates.

For South African retailers and importers, this timing coincides almost exactly with the final inventory build for Black Friday on 27 November and the Christmas trading period.

Using the current 27-day Shanghai-Durban direct transit benchmark, together with the possibility of origin delays and a further five-to-eight days of Durban port exposure, the practical planning window becomes much tighter than the headline transit time suggests.

For Black Friday stock, the safest approach is to have priority cargo completed, gated in and ideally sailing before the Mid-Autumn Festival on 25 September.

Cargo only sailing after China's National Day reopening on 8 October can still reach South Africa before Black Friday, but the margin for weather, rollover, Durban congestion, customs clearance and inland delivery becomes increasingly narrow.

For Christmas stock, cargo sailing in the first half of October remains achievable on direct services, but importers should aim to secure bookings before the National Day shutdown and avoid relying on late-October departures for critical or fast-moving lines.

Those shipments may technically arrive before Christmas, but leave considerably less recovery time should congestion develop at either origin or Durban.

The commercial lesson is simple: the holiday itself may last only a few days, but the supply-chain impact can stretch across several weeks. For businesses dependent on seasonal retail demand, the real deadline is therefore not Black Friday or Christmas. It is the date the container leaves China.

What successful importers are doing differently

The strongest performers in the current market are not necessarily moving cargo faster, they are planning further ahead, and:

• Securing vessel space earlier
• Building flexibility into lead times
• Monitoring equipment availability more closely
• Factoring weather risk into delivery planning
• Understanding the financial implications of extended transit cycles 

Most importantly, they recognise that supply chain resilience is no longer purely an operational challenge, it is a financial one too. The global supply chain has entered a period where logistics and liquidity are becoming increasingly interconnected. Every additional day in transit affects more than delivery schedules.

• It affects cash flow
• It affects inventory availability
• It affects working capital tied up in goods that are moving but not yet generating revenue

That is why the most resilient importers are taking a broader view of supply chain management. They are not only asking how cargo will move, but they are asking how growth will be funded while it moves. 

At Investec Business and Commercial Banking, we understand that trade cycles and cash cycles are inseparable. Whether supporting importers with trade finance solutions, funding goods in transit, or helping businesses optimise working capital in an increasingly uncertain logistics environment, our focus is on creating the financial flexibility required to trade confidently.

In today's market, competitive advantage is no longer determined solely by who can secure space on a vessel.  It belongs to those who can navigate volatility, unlock liquidity and keep their businesses moving when conditions become uncertain. 

Closing perspective

Weather will pass. Congestion will eventually clear. And shipping schedules will gradually recover.

But every additional day between supplier and warehouse has a financial consequence. Inventory remains tied up for longer. Supplier payments still fall due. Customer delivery commitments remain in place. And working capital stays invested in goods that have not yet reached the point where they can generate revenue.

This is why logistics and financial planning increasingly need to happen together. At Investec Business and Commercial Banking, our trade finance and working-capital solutions are designed around the realities of international trade — helping businesses fund goods in transit, bridge longer cash-conversion cycles and maintain liquidity when logistics networks become unpredictable.

We cannot control a typhoon in Shanghai, the monsoon in India or a vessel queue outside Durban. But businesses can control how prepared they are when those events occur.

And increasingly, the combination of supply-chain visibility, working-capital flexibility and strong partnerships is what allows importers to turn uncertainty from a constraint into something they can manage.

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