SA's solar awakening

Podcast transcript: scroll to the areas that interest you

• IR: Iman Rappetti, journalist and host
• DWT: De Wet Taljaard, technical specialist, South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA)
• MH: Melanie Humphries, head of Sustainable Solutions, Investec
• BG: Bernard Geldenhuys, senior transactor, Energy and Infrastructure Finance, Investec 

• 00:00: Intro

  IR: The next time you see a Shoprite truck on the road, chances are it's keeping its load of consumables fresh by solar panels on the roof of the trailer. The retail giant’s current installed solar PV capacity is equivalent to 24 soccer fields. It generates enough electricity to power over 4,500 households for a full year, easing pressure on the national electricity grid.

  This is just one example of South Africa's "make a plan" mentality when it comes to finding alternative energy solutions - but thousands of private companies and households are embracing solar PV technology to reduce their carbon footprint and keep the lights on. In fact, according to the energy regulator NERSA, South Africa invested R11bn in solar PV technology in the third quarter of last year alone.

  And by the end of January this year, Eskom data shows that private companies and households had installed more solar capacity than the total capacity of the national utility's two largest power stations, Medupi and Kusile, combined. The solar revolution is undoubtedly underway, but if load-shedding is resolved, will it be here to stay?

  Welcome to The Current, an Investec Focus Radio podcast on South Africa's energy transition. I'm Iman Rappetti, and in this 10-part series, we've been having conversations with industry experts from inside Investec and beyond about how South Africa can move towards more equitable and sustainable energy solutions.
  

  In this, the seventh episode of the series, we're talking all things solar PV. From market dynamics to how much it costs and whether it makes commercial sense for you to install it for your business or your home. 

• 01:56: Meet the guests

  IR: Let's welcome my guests.

  DWT: I'm a technical specialist at the South African PV Industry Association. SAPVIA is an industry association and we represent a vast majority of players in the South African PV space through advocacy and lobbying, education and the like.

  MH: I'm Mel Humphries and I head up sustainable solutions within the Private Bank at Investec.

  BG: Bernard Geldenhuys, I'm a senior transactor in the Investec Energy and Infrastructure Finance team.

• 02:24: Overview of solar in SA and its domination

  IR: We start with De Wet who gives us an overview of the solar PV market in South Africa.

  DWT: The industry really had its start in 2010 - 2011, when large-scale public procurement of renewable energy really got underway. And in the last two to three years, the solar industry really has grown at a really incredible rate.

  And that's due to not only the energy independence drive. So customers or end users protecting themselves from loadshedding, but also due to regulatory reforms that have allowed real utility scale investment in renewable generation, specifically solar PV.

  IR: Let's talk about solar PV then against the other renewables and how it stacks up. What's its piece of the pie?

  DWT: If you look at the installed capacity from public procurement it’s about 35%. So those are projects that were installed through the first four rounds of REIPPPP.

  But if you look at the private sector installed capacity, which is currently sitting at approximately 5.4 gigawatts and if you take the Eskom rooftop estimates, that number jumps up with about 65% of the renewable generation is solar PV.

• 03:36: 86% of all solar is residential or rooftop

  IR: In layman's terms, I guess what's important to know is just how many households have rooftop solar in South Africa and what the year-on-year growth percentage is.

  DWT: So that's an interesting number. The SAPVIA installed capacity data set currently is up to date at the end of quarter one, 2023. And when we look at that data, there were approximately 126,000 households in South Africa that have solar PV. That's out of a total of 148,000 total solar installations.

  Residential solar installations make up approximately 85% of all solar installations in the country and the rest is commercial industrial all the way up to utility-scale and that's approximately a 53% growth across all market segments. So really astonishing growth that we've seen. 

• 04:24: Large-scale solar PV projects

  IR: Let's turn our attention then to what's happening in the macroeconomy and what the landscape looks like when it comes to large-scale solar PV projects coming on board, Bernard?

  BG: So we're seeing a lot of growth in the large-scale solar PV market. We know of about 3.5 gigawatts of renewable energy projects that have been contracted with about 120 megawatts in operation, 2,200 megawatts in construction and another 1,200 progressing to financial close.

  The Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) also came to an end recently, and about 600 megawatts of firm green capacity will come online in the next 24 months. All of these facilities are dispatchable green energy, and they'll really help to alleviate the pressure of loadshedding going forward.

• 05:03: How does SA solar adoption stack up globally?

  IR: Let's look at this from a global perspective. A lot of this innovation is new, and it's beginning to gather momentum in South Africa. How do we stack up against the rest of the world?

  DWT: From a global perspective, I'm happy to report that we are on the scoreboard at least. So, from a projected installed capacity point of view in 2024, we're projected to be number 10 at around 4.3 gigawatts projected for the year. That's by Bloomberg New Energy Fund (BNEF).

  At the end of last year, SAPVIA assisted the BNEF team with their projections for 2024. And if you look at that scoreboard, number three is India at approximately 18 gigawatts. Projected for the United States is 40 gigawatts. And then far ahead at number one is China at 313 gigawatts.

  So at least we're on the scoreboard, but there's still a while to go. But if you look at it from an installed capacity per person, we lag quite far behind the rest of the world. And we’re sitting at approximately 132 watts per person.

  Australia is at number one at 1,116 watts. The Netherlands is second and Germany is in third position. So we've got a while to go yet still. 

   

• 06:20: The impact of residential solar's boom on the national grid

  IR: South Africa may be playing catch up in some respects, but arguably the more pertinent question is, has the uptake of solar across the country actually reduced demand on the national power grid?

  DWT: That's a difficult question to answer because we know how much solar has been installed at a utility-scale that feeds directly into Eskom, but the amount of solar installed behind the meter, so residential, commercial, and industrial is a number that floats around a little bit.

  But what we can see from the Eskom system operator and the data is that there's an absolute distinct decrease in demand due to solar PV. And that's something that's become more apparent over the last two to three years.

  What we've seen is that there's between a thousand and 4,000 megawatts of demand reduction due to solar PV. And that equates to between one and at the maximum four stages of loadshedding. 

• 07:16: The cost implications of installing solar

  IR: So what is it looking like? Costs. Everyone's thinking about costs. People are renting, people are taking loans from the banks in order to lay on solar PV. So give us an estimate of the average solar PV plus battery installation costs in South Africa and how it's fallen.

  DWT: The cost of residential solar PV has fluctuated quite dramatically over the last year. And the cost spread for residential solar PV is also quite broad. So when we talk about a unit cost in solar PV, we always talk about a cost per watt or a Rand per watt value. So that's the CapEx per installed capacity, and then if you look at battery energy storage as well, you're looking at a cost per kilowatt hour.

  What we've seen in the residential space is that there can be anywhere from 25-45 Rand per watt.

  And that is for systems with approximately two hours of battery energy storage, so a two-hour loadshedding protection. So what that means for a typical system, a five-kilowatt PV system with two hours of battery energy storage, the price can vary from R125,000 all the way to R225,000.

  And that's based on a few different factors: where the project is, where the system is, and where the equipment is varies quite dramatically in price based on the solution that you go for.

  So it is quite a broad spread in the residential space. But what we have seen is that there's been a quite a marked decrease in that CapEx cost over the last year for residential systems where the average cost has been R30 per watt and below in the beginning of this year.

  IR: Does it also make commercial sense to the corporate and industrial sector then, because the payback period is getting much shorter?

  BG: I think payback periods are getting shorter for the following reasons. Firstly, the Eskom tariff increases have been excessive over the last couple of years, and we expect them to increase by a further 12% for the year 25/26.

  The second reason is a reduction in the cost of PV modules, inverters, and battery energy storage systems, due to some oversupply in the market, not just in South Africa, but also globally. And the third reason is tax incentives.

  So the first incentive that jumps to mind is section 12 B a that allows you a 125% deduction until 28 February, 2025.

• 09:46: Homeowners installing solar for commercial value

  IR  Mel, what's your view on the commercial value of solar PV for residential use?

  MH: We've seen a shift in sentiment from the management of availability of energy and installing a residential solar system out of pure frustration as a result of loadshedding to looking at this as a commercial investment, a long-term investment where we're seeing payback periods, depending on the use case, of between six and seven years in that residential space.

  And so it really is an investment that is starting to make commercial sense from a costing point of view. And of course, from an environmental impact point of view, but then also in terms of the attractiveness of one's property.

  At the end of last year, we saw a huge amount of solar panels being imported. I think the total solar panels imported in 2023 was around R17.5bn - that in comparison to I think the number is R5.6 billion in 2022 -  just speaks to the sheer growth in demand.

  What that did lead to was an oversupply of equipment towards the end of last year and the warehousing of stock, which has brought prices down, which is obviously good news for the end user.

  DWT: Just to add, if we look at the upstream chain. If you look at polysilicone prices, wafer prices and module prices in China, that's a commodity that you can track like any other.

  Those prices have been decreasing for the last three to four years, continual decreasing. And that is due to a variety of factors impacting the supply chain and the production costs in China, but also looking at the sort of international demand for, for solar PV.

  And what that means is that the current decreases that we're seeing in South Africa are going to continue.

  And what is really encouraging from a clean energy perspective is that the same cost decrease trends that we've seen for the last five to 10 years in solar PV technology are starting to take root in battery energy storage technology where prices have dropped from an average of $300 - $350 per kilowatt hours for cell prices to between $180 and $150 per kilowatt hour. 

• 11:55: Equitable access of solar power

  IR: The one thing that's really important, especially with the South African context, is the concept of equity and equitable access for everyone else. If the solar option is so attractive, what can be done for the vast majority of South Africans who don't have the capital or the credit available to install some of this rooftop solar that we've been talking about?

  DWT:  One example that is quite popular in other countries is this concept of community solar, where you take advantage of economies of scale and install large scale solar PV and battery energy storage systems at a single feeder point that feeds an entire community. And what that would allow the community is to have access to clean, low-cost energy that's feeding their community directly.

  Unfortunately, the ownership models and the funding models haven't been completely unpacked in South Africa yet. But that is something that we at SAPVIA see as a solution to lower income communities benefiting from solar PV.

  IR: Our conversation with Melanie, Bernard and DeWett will continue after this.

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• 13:55: Local manufacturing of solar products lagging behind

  IR: Mel, we've spoken a lot about the massive increase in imported components for solar PV and battery technology. If we have such a big demand, why are we not manufacturing more locally?

  MH: Attending a solar conference earlier this year, I was just amazed at the sheer amount of Original Equipment Manufacturers or OEMs that participated in the conference, which certainly shows the interest in participating in South Africa's solar story.

  We are starting to see some manufacturers coming to the fore in South Africa, which is obviously wonderful. And we are also seeing many participants, whether those are contractors, energy advisors, importers that are participating and taking advantage of the growth that we're seeing in this market.

  So many of our clients are not just solving for themselves, but they are also participating in the growth that we're seeing in this industry.

  IR: While we need to up our game when it comes to local manufacturing for solar PV equipment, it's encouraging to hear how much foreign interest there is in our solar boom. But can we quantify this in terms of foreign direct investment?

  BG: In terms of overall investment in the REIPPP programme up to December 2022, it attracted about R220bn of total investment, of which R42.6bn was foreign direct investment, and that's across about 10 gigawatts of renewable energy.

• 14:49: REIPPPP Programme attracts substantial FDI

  IR: While we need to up our game when it comes to local manufacturing for solar PV equipment, it's encouraging to hear how much foreign interest there is in our solar boom. But can we quantify this in terms of foreign direct investment?

  BG: In terms of overall investment in the REIPPPP programme up to December 2022, it attracted about R220bn of total investment, of which R42.6bn was foreign direct investment, and that's across about 10 gigawatts of renewable energy.

   IR: That's over a 400% increase. 

• 15:19: Feeding excess energy back into the grid

  IR: Locally, an increasingly important driver of solar PV adoption is the ever-gowing number of schemes that allow households and private entities to feed any energy they produce back into the national grid.

  De Wet, how do feedback systems work and how soon before consumers can start making money from feeding the excess electricity back into the grid?

  DW: There are currently 46 municipalities in the country that allow back feeding of electricity into their network that have some form of remuneration, whether it be a credit or an offset, or like you have in the city of Cape Town, a cash for power scheme.

  So there are municipalities that are seriously looking at embedded generation and solar PV as an opportunity and not necessarily as a danger to their municipal revenue streams.

  But the cost of the meter is prohibitive at the moment. Luckily, the city of Cape Town came out with a significantly cheaper single phase meter to allow energy to be fed back into the network.

  But on top of that, I think it's about having a feed-in tariff that is fair for both the municipality and also for the homeowner. So having a tariff that is high enough to incentivise registration, but not to negatively impact the revenue model of the municipality is really important.

  IR: Bernard, your thoughts?

  BG: I think it creates a huge opportunity for municipalities to improve their profitability or margins between the cost of energy, so IPPs are a lot cheaper than Eskom, and the tariff charge to the consumer, which is approved by NERSA.

  Municipalities could also provide available land and grid connection within their distribution systems to IPPs, which will reduce wheeling charges from Eskom and provide a more stable and secure supply system close to the location where it's consumed, resulting in less transmission losses and lower curtailment risks, so low shedding.

  I think by facilitating wheeling through its municipal network, lost revenue will be substituted to some extent by wheeling charges to generators and consumers. 

• 17:32: Transmission is the biggest hurdle for large-scale solar

  IR: None of that is worth much unless the power that's generated can get to where it's needed, which involves transmission, a longstanding challenge for the South African power grid, and one that many argue is the biggest hurdle.

  DWT: I think that's the one advantage of solar PV as a technology. It's distributive in nature. So rooftop or behind-the-meter solar can bring additional generation capacity online, but without walking into that transmission availability or grid capacity wall.

  But if we talk about utility-scale specifically here, there is a lack of available grid capacity specifically in high renewable production areas. So for solar PV, we're talking about the Northern Cape, the Northern Free State, the Northwest is a real challenge for solar PV developers. One way to mitigate that is the co-location of battery energy storage with solar PV.

  One example of that is the Scatec Kenhardt project out in the Northern Cape, which, as things stand, is one of the largest solar PV and battery energy storage facilities in the world.

  And what that battery energy storage allows you to do is to store excess capacity, and you can dispatch that when the system operator requires it.

• 18:50: What is wheeling and why is it important for IPPs?

  IR: The holy grail of private power generation is the ability to turn a profit by wheeling power to another entity.

  DWT: So wheeling is a uniquely South African term. The rest of the world just refers to it as wholesale energy market trading or trading of electricity. Wheeling in very basic terms is when you've got offsite generation and offsite consumption.

  So what that means is you'll have a really large solar PV plant out in the Northern Cape supplying electricity or energy to a factory in KwaZulu- Natal. A lot of people think that wheeling is a physical movement of electrons.

  So it's electrons going all the way from the Northern Cape down to KZN, but in fact, it's a lot simpler than that. It is an accounting reconciliation of the bill at the end of the month. So not as exciting, but at least wheeling is a really good term.

  BG: The wheeling framework in South Africa is well established, and it aligns with the whole unbundling of Eskom into the generation, transmission and distribution process that was initiated in 2019 and should, fingers crossed, conclude in 2024.

  We know of about 3.5 gigawatts of wheeling projects, predominantly Eskom-to-Eskom connected, that have been contracted over the last three years between large IPPs and intensive energy users.

  Deployment accelerated, especially around 2022, when the NERSA generation licensing threshold was removed. We're also seeing the emergence of energy traders in South Africa in a multi-generator bio configuration.

  IR: And with wheeling now a well-established part of the energy sector, the market is growing.

  DWT: The data coming out of the National Energy Regulator is fascinating to look at. What we've seen is a clear shift from the private sector to move into the wheeling private sector generator space.

  And from the nearly 6.5 gigawatts of projects registered with the National Energy Regulator to date, just over 5.6 gigawatts of that total capacity is what we deem wheeling specific projects.

  So that's 42 solar PV projects and 17 wind projects. What that means is there's a clear shift from the private sector to entering the aggregator trader or bilateral PPA market.

• 21:19: Top considerations when installing rooftop solar

  IR: Like any booming market, there are a lot of products and service providers in the mix. So I asked Melanie which considerations are the most important for a solar PV installation.

  MH: I think it's very important that you know what you're buying, but also that you use somebody that's certified to install whatever you're buying.

  And then, of course, there's many regulatory concerns and considerations around getting the right approvals, getting a certificate of compliance to make sure that your insurances are in place. So those are some of the concerns, key considerations.

  And then to make sure that what you are installing and the design of your system actually is future proof, that you are thinking about how your energy needs may change over time and that you install in a modular way so that you can add on to what you've already got in terms of design of system.

  Many people start with the design of the solar system, whereas actually the first step is reducing your absolute energy consumption by being more efficient and then saying, based on that efficiency, what do I really need and how do I make sure that to the extent that my needs change, I'm able to actually add onto the system that I've installed?

• 22:28: Maintenance of solar equipment

  IR: We often think about installation level, how much it's going to cost, and we resolve those questions at that point, but we don't often think maybe further than that into longevity and into the replacement aspect of your solar panels, your batteries, and so on. So just shed some light on what consumers need to be aware of when it comes to that aspect...

  DWT: I think that point is really crucial. It's about understanding how long your equipment lasts and also how long you can get really good production out of your equipment. PV panels coming out these days have got 20, 25 to 30 year warranty periods, and they've got 20 to 25 year production guarantees.

• 23:10: Loadshedding and solar's relationship is changing

  IR: Loadshedding has no doubt helped the solar PV market reach the heights that it has. And while it might be difficult for many South Africans to comprehend a time when we can live our lives without those regular power interruptions, that day will almost certainly come. But a stable and reliable grid doesn't automatically mean the obsolescence of any existing solar PV systems.

  MH: It's not just about loadshedding. The one thing that South Africa has is an abundance of sunlight and that energy. Once you've invested in a solar system, it's still much cheaper than actually leveraging, you know, heaven forbid, a diesel generator or even the grid. It still has huge benefits in terms of the cost of your monthly bill.

  DWT: I think the shift there is to understand how you can optimise your system. So moving away from a pure backup solution to think about how you can optimise your battery energy storage system so that you really draw in the least amount of energy from the grid and you increase what's referred to as your own consumption or your self-consumption percentage.

• 24:17: How corporates can benefit from solar

  IR: So let's talk about business and some of the corporates and how they're benefiting from hybrid solutions, battery storage integrated with solar PV.

  MH: Access to a behind-the-meter solar solution not only gives a corporate the ability to take ownership of their energy journey, but also to dynamically manage the cost of their energy.

  In many instances, the cost of energy 10 years ago, it would have just been a line item in terms of a company's operating expenses today.

  If you were to use a diesel generator, that could be up to 40% of your total operating expenses and all of a sudden it becomes a very significant number strategically to manage.

  And so corporates are thinking about solar solutions, battery storage solutions, not just to manage the business continuity plans, but actually also to do some dynamic pricing management, using their energy storage during peak times when electricity is at its most expensive and then using the grid in a hybrid way whenever it makes sense and the electricity prices are down. 

   

   

• 25:24: What are the risks to SA's solar boom?

  IR: So, we've made compelling arguments for solar PV, and I guess one of the questions to ask would be, what are the risks? What could derail this seemingly unstoppable growth of solar PV in South Africa?

  DWT: I don't want to sound too positive, but there's not that many risks to solar PV at the moment. I think the cost trajectories negate the risk of affordability.

  Costs are decreasing at a rate that make it accessible to a large portion of end users. One risk is around utility scale grid access and getting enough solar PV generation online as quickly as we need it.

  One aspect is more to do with renewable energy generation technology in general, and that's around system stability and ensuring that you've got a system that works all year round in all weather conditions, and that you've got a system that is fit for purpose for the type of loads that we have in South Africa.

  From a residential and a commercial industrial perspective, one of the risks is some of the regulatory uncertainty and the current situation that we find ourselves in, where we don't have an adequate standards framework to cover residential and commercial and industrial installations.

  We don't have adequate standards that speak to the equipment specifications. And we currently do not have a national installation standard that adequately covers all the aspects of a solar PV system.

  Furthermore, the regulatory uncertainty around municipal sign off requirements, where there are differing requirements between different municipalities all over the country.

  Unfortunately, that uncertainty is a risk to the continued sustainable rollout of residential and commercial industrial solar PV.

  And I think the last one to mention is the current education and current vocational training framework or vocational training situation in South Africa is that we don't adequately prepare individuals and we don't have enough skilled individuals to participate in that deployment process to actually go out and build the solar PV projects.

  BG: We think the biggest risk is the grid that is constrained, especially in areas where there's high renewable energy resources, so mainly the Northern Cape, Western Cape and Eastern Cape. It's estimated that we need about, as a country, R390bn to expand the national grid, so about 14,000 kilometres of transmission lines and transformer upgrades in order to connect more power plants to the grid. As such, government is exploring public-private partnerships, and I think that will facilitate this expansion quite nicely.

• 28:28: Closing comments and some practical advice

  IR: We close this episode with some practical advice. No matter if you're a single household or a commercial and industrial buyer, when it comes to installing solar, it's best to consider every aspect of the project.

  BG: The service being offered by an IPP is very important. If your panels aren't cleaned and maintained properly, your production losses are between 5-10%. And that's just cleaning, that's not backup transformers and switches breaking.

  So I think reputable installers, it goes beyond just a kit. It's about who's going to operate and maintain that.

  DWT: From a commercial industrial perspective, the details around the contracting is really important to understand your responsibility, your role when it comes to that power purchase agreement, what's required of you, what's required of the system owner.

  And there are so many different models that are being used. To get solar to be used by commercial industrial clients, it's important for the clients to understand that contracting and understand the risks associated if you decide to go either a CapEx direct purchase route or a solar as a service route.

  MH: We've seen consumer buy-in on a large scale during 2023. We've seen foreign direct investment support. We've seen the private sector coming to the fore and participating.

  I think a key thing we need is the regulatory reform that's required for standardisation of how we do installations and some of the municipal support we need around creating feed-in tariffs and the regulatory and administrative environment in order to make that happen. And then we will really see the boom of the PV market.

  IR: Thanks for listening to this episode of The Current, brought to you by Investec Focus Radio. In our next episode, we're taking a closer look at renewables in the transport industry and whether electric vehicles have a future in South Africa.

  You can find all episodes of The Current on the Investec website here, or wherever you get your podcasts.

  If you enjoyed this episode, please rate it, leave a comment and tell your friends and colleagues.

  Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the contributors at the time of publication and do not necessarily represent the views of the firm and should not be taken as advice or recommendations. Investec Private Banking, a division of Investec Bank Limited, a registered credit provider committed to the code of banking practice as regulated by the Ombudsman for Banking Services.

   

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