Aviation Market Snapshot - Q4 2025

Passenger traffic growth softened slightly in November but remains firmly positive

Global passenger travel continued to expand in November, although the pace of growth eased compared with the previous month. Industrywide Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.6% in October, reflecting a modest cooling in demand after a strong run earlier in the quarter. Despite this moderation, underlying trends remained supportive: on a seasonally adjusted basis, passenger volumes were 5.2% higher than a year earlier, highlighting resilience in global air travel even as broader macroeconomic conditions remain mixed. Month-over-month growth was more modest at 0.1%, indicating a steadier, more mature phase of recovery.

Chart 1: Global RPK, billion

Source: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Information and Data - Monthly Statistics

Capacity growth remained measured and supportive of strong load factors

Global seat capacity, measured in Available Seat Kilometres (ASK), expanded by 5.4% year-on-year, a rate slightly below demand growth. This imbalance continued to bolster aircraft utilisation, helping the industry achieve a record November Passenger Load Factor (PLF) of 83.7%. The persistence of high load factors underscores the discipline shown by carriers in managing capacity while navigating seasonal demand shifts and operational cost pressures.
 

Regional growth decelerated broadly, except for Africa, which continues to outperform

November saw a general cooling of passenger growth across most regions, driven by uneven economic conditions, currency volatility in some markets, and softer discretionary spending in developed economies. Africa remained a standout, delivering 12.6% year-on-year growth – well above the industry average. This reflects strengthening intra African connectivity, structural improvements in network planning, and rising demand from middle income consumers.

Other regions, including Asia Pacific and Europe, still posted solid mid single digit increases but at slightly slower rates than October. Meanwhile, North America saw the sharpest deceleration due to a 1.8% contraction in U.S. domestic traffic, linked to operational disruptions and government related constraints during the month.

Air passenger market in detail - November 2025

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Information and Data - Monthly Statistics.

International travel remained the main engine of sector growth

International RPK expanded by 7.7% year-on-year, slightly below October’s 8.3% growth but continuing to significantly outpace domestic markets. Capacity on international routes grew 7.1%, enabling the international PLF to reach 84.0%, another record for November. Importantly, international travel accounted for over 80% of all incremental passenger growth, signalling ongoing confidence in cross border travel as global tourism and business travel patterns normalise. This strength was particularly evident across major long haul corridors in Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East.
 

Domestic markets remained steady but showed widening performance dispersion

Domestic RPK grew by 2.7% year-on-year, one percentage point below October. While aggregate performance was stable, there was meaningful divergence across key markets:

• India continued to show strong demand,
• Brazil and China maintained positive and steady growth,
• Japan remained resilient with high load factors, and
• The United States experienced a decline due to a temporary shock, rather than structural weakness.

Despite differing regional conditions, domestic PLF remained robust at 83.2%, unchanged from last year, indicating sustained utilisation levels.
 

Forward outlook: seat capacity expected to moderate into early 2026

Airlines increased scheduled seat capacity by 3.6% year-on-year in November to capture strong leisure travel ahead of the holiday season. December capacity is projected to rise by 3.9%, the fastest monthly growth of the year. However, January 2026 is expected to see a slowdown to 2.0% year-on-year, reflecting normal post holiday seasonality. For investors, this shift marks a transition from peak season strength to a more balanced early year capacity environment.

Air cargo demand reached a new high in November, supported by strong trade flows

Global air cargo volumes continued to strengthen, with Cargo Tonne Kilometres (CTK) rising by 5.5% year-on-year, reaching their highest level on record for November. This represented the second largest monthly increase seen in 2025 and underscores the resilience of global air freight demand even as broader goods trade indicators remain uneven. Seasonally adjusted CTK grew by 5.3%, an acceleration from October’s 3.6%, signalling broad based improvement across major trade routes.

Chart 1: Industry CTK, billion

Source: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Information and Data - Monthly Statistics

International cargo growth was driven by structural strength in emerging markets

International CTK increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with the strongest expansions seen across emerging regions. Africa led global performance with 15.6% year-on-year growth, marking its fifth consecutive month of double digit expansion, supported by rising cross border e commerce flows and improved regional logistics infrastructure. Asia Pacific carriers also posted robust gains at 11.1%, reflecting strong growth in intra-regional trade and continued demand for time sensitive shipments linked to electronics, manufacturing, and retail inventory restocking.

The Middle East saw cargo volumes rise by 7.4%, benefiting from its pivotal role in Europe Asia supply chains, while Europe reported a steady 5.8% expansion. By contrast, cargo markets in the Americas remained weak: North America recorded a 1.6% decline, and Latin America and the Caribbean saw their largest contraction since 2021 at –4.8%, reflecting softer economic conditions and declines in export driven activity.
 

Capacity additions remained moderate and aligned with demand

Available cargo capacity (ACTK) grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with increases largely supported by higher belly capacity from winter passenger schedules. This helped lift the global Cargo Load Factor (CLF) to 49.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from last year – evidence that the market continues to absorb new capacity efficiently. Regions such as Asia Pacific and Europe saw utilisation improve further as demand exceeded capacity additions.

Air cargo market in detail - November 2025

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Information and Data - Monthly Statistics.

Fuel price dynamics and yield pressures continued to influence profitability

Jet fuel prices increased by 5.9% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of rising costs and widening the crack spread to its highest level of the year. This contributed to ongoing yield pressure, with cargo yields 2.9% lower year-on-year, extending a seven month decline. However, month on month yields rebounded strongly, rising 8.2%, the largest monthly increase since December 2021 – supported by peak season demand, e commerce surges, and selective capacity tightening. Investors should view this as a stabilising signal for near term cargo margins.
 

Regional divergences show shifting trade patterns heading into year end

The November data continues to highlight structural shifts in global trade flows:

• Emerging markets in Africa and Asia are accounting for a growing share of global cargo activity.
• Traditional cargo strongholds in the Americas face persistent weakness.
• The Middle East and Europe remain anchored by stable long haul trade lanes, but with differentiated performance depending on exposure to consumer goods vs. industrial components.

These shifts reinforce the importance of diversified route networks and exposure to high growth trade corridors as carriers navigate the final stages of the year.