The UK economy is expanding, but not at a particularly rapid rate. We’re forecasting year-on-year (yoy) GDP growth of 1.4% this year and 1.5% for 2026. Simultaneously the labour market is weakening while inflation remains high. We’re currently forecasting CPI of 3.4% yoy for the full year, falling to 2.7% for the full year 2026.
There remains some difference of opinion on the Monetary Policy Committee on how persistent UK inflation will be, with some members thinking inflation could remain higher for longer while others expect the current level will prove short lived.
Our view on the Bank rate is that we could see the MPC start to cut rates next spring, reaching 3.25% by the end of next year.
For more information contact our economists
Philip Shaw
Chief Economist
I head up the Economics team for Investec in London after joining in 1997. I am a regular commentator on the economy and financial markets in the press and on TV. I graduated with an Economics degree from Bath University and a master’s in Econometrics from the University of Manchester. I started my career in the Government Economic Service at the Department of Energy before joining Barclays as an economist/econometrician.
Ryan Djajasaputra
Economist
In 2007, I joined Investec as part of the Kensington acquisition, before joining the Economics team in 2010. I provide macroeconomic, interest rate and foreign exchange analysis to Investec Group and its corporate clients. After graduating with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from UWE Bristol.
Lottie Gosling
Economist
I joined the London Economics team at Investec as a graduate in September 2023. I graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Bath with a year-long placement working as an Economic Research Analyst at HSBC.
Ellie Henderson
Economist
I joined Investec in February 2021 as part of the London Economics team, providing economic advice and analysis for the company and its clients. Before joining Investec I worked as an economist for Fathom Consulting, where I predominantly focused on China research. I hold a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Surrey, as well as a Master’s degree in Economics from Birkbeck, University of London.
Sandra Horsfield
Economist
I am part of the London Economics team, having joined in 2020, providing macroeconomic analysis and advice to the Investec Group and its clients. I hold a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree in Economics, both from the London School of Economics. I have over 20 years’ experience as a financial markets economist on the buy and sell side as well as in consulting.
Philip Shaw
Chief Economist
I head up the Economics team for Investec in London after joining in 1997. I am a regular commentator on the economy and financial markets in the press and on TV. I graduated with an Economics degree from Bath University and a master’s in Econometrics from the University of Manchester. I started my career in the Government Economic Service at the Department of Energy before joining Barclays as an economist/econometrician.
Ryan Djajasaputra
Economist
In 2007, I joined Investec as part of the Kensington acquisition, before joining the Economics team in 2010. I provide macroeconomic, interest rate and foreign exchange analysis to Investec Group and its corporate clients. After graduating with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from UWE Bristol.
Lottie Gosling
Economist
I joined the London Economics team at Investec as a graduate in September 2023. I graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Bath with a year-long placement working as an Economic Research Analyst at HSBC.
Ellie Henderson
Economist
I joined Investec in February 2021 as part of the London Economics team, providing economic advice and analysis for the company and its clients. Before joining Investec I worked as an economist for Fathom Consulting, where I predominantly focused on China research. I hold a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Surrey, as well as a Master’s degree in Economics from Birkbeck, University of London.
Sandra Horsfield
Economist
I am part of the London Economics team, having joined in 2020, providing macroeconomic analysis and advice to the Investec Group and its clients. I hold a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree in Economics, both from the London School of Economics. I have over 20 years’ experience as a financial markets economist on the buy and sell side as well as in consulting.
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The views expressed are those of the contributors at the time of publication and do not necessarily represent the views of the firm and should not be taken as advice or recommendations.
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