Another Year Over…
16 December 2019
The ‘red wall’ was demolished and the pound shot up, but all for the initial euphoria there are still many uncertainties.
5 min read
16 Dec 2019
Economic Highlights
Welcome to our Economic Highlights, bringing you market updates from across the UK, US, Europe and China, as well as the FTSE weekly winners and losers.
UK
The latest PMI data for both Manufacturing (47.4) and Services (48.5) were both lower than expected and lower than last month, leaving the UK economy teetering on the brink of a recession. But that was all pre-election, and last week’s Tory victory promises to provide a combination of improved confidence and hard government cash, so let’s see how things evolve in the New Year.
US
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, but, perhaps more importantly, suggested that there really is no hurry to start raising them again. Perhaps just as well, seeing as November Retail Sales ((+0.2% m/m) were disappointing, although previous months’ data were revised higher, and Black Friday can create distortions.
Europe
The Composite PMI for December ticked down from 50.7 to 50.6. Manufacturing (45.9) continues to struggle, but Services (52.4) are holding up. For how much longer can this gap persist?
China
Improved numbers across the board for November Industrial Production (+6.2% y/y) and Retail Sales (8%). Evidence, perhaps, that the brakes have been released by the government, which is something we have believed for a while. It just takes a while to get moving sometimes.
