World Cup 2026 – what the numbers say

The FIFA men’s World Cup will soon kick off, and this year’s tournament promises to be different from its predecessors. For one, it’ll be bigger: spread across three host countries, 48 countries will participate, well up on the 16 countries that were the norm in the early decades of the tournament. There are 16 host cities, and 104 matches in all.

It’s estimated that about six billion people will be watching the games, about three-quarters of the world’s population (even though some of the world’s most populous countries won’t be taking part; more on this below).

It’s also drawn some controversy. The tournament comes at a time of widespread geopolitical turmoil, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East providing a backdrop. There has been uncertainty about Iran’s participation, but according to news reports at the time of writing, the Iranian squad will be based in Mexico and fly in and out of the US to play its fixtures.

Ticket prices have also been a major talking point, with many commentators expressing concern that typical fans are being priced out of supporting their teams. According to The Economist, the cheapest tickets for group-stage matches are selling for US$200, up from around US$50 in 2022, while the cheapest ticket for the final is going for US$2036 (from US$500 in 2022).

These issues aside, the World Cup presents an opportunity to examine the demographic, economic, and cultural factors that determine qualification and may indicate how countries will perform in the tournament. With 48 countries participating, there’s a wide range of population sizes and GDPs, allowing for some interesting conclusions.

Our table below sets out the participating countries, ranked by FIFA ranking (as at 25 May 2026), population and GDP.

A few notes on the table. Population and GDP numbers can vary significantly, depending on the source. We have used Encyclopaedia Britannica’s 2025 estimates for population and Wikipedia’s ranking of nominal GDP based on IMF estimates for 2026.

World Cup participants by FIFA ranking, population and GDP

Sources: Wikipedia, Encyclopaedia Britannica, FIFA men’s rankings, 25 May 2026

*The UK is used as a proxy for England and Scotland’s GDP. Scotland has a population of about 5.5 million and accounts for about 8% of UK GDP

Little and large

The expanded participation has led to some interesting qualifiers and non-qualifiers. Qualifiers include small countries like Cape Verde (524,000 population in 2024) and Curaçao, described as a “constituent island country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands” (155,800 population in 2023). It’s also seen some big names fail to qualify, such as three-time winners Italy (ranked 12th in the world), who last qualified for the World Cup in 2014 and traditional African powerhouse Cameroon.

It’s also worth noting that six of the world’s top 10 countries by population (representing about 3.7 billion people) have not qualified for the finals – India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Russia. Indeed, of these, only Russia and China (the latter only once) have participated in previous World Cups.

By GDP, four of the top 10 are missing – China, India, Italy and Russia. Together, these account for 24% of global GDP (according to the IMF estimate).

The presence of some tiny nations in the tournament and the absence of some population and GDP powerhouses is partly explained by the qualifying system. Countries qualify by playing against countries in their regions, in randomly drawn groups. This creates an opportunity for qualification for smaller or weaker countries, but also a risk for big countries. The system is designed to create a broad spread of countries qualifying.

But it also shows that a large population and high GDP don’t guarantee success on their own. The sport also needs to be culturally embedded in a country and institutionally supported. Where a sport is central in a country’s psyche, it tends to attract the best sporting talent and investment in coaching by both the private and public sectors.

Under and overachievers

Even with these elements, success isn’t guaranteed. Türkiye, ranked 17th by population and 16th by GDP, has a strong footballing culture, and its clubs compete in major European competitions. Yet it has performed relatively modestly on the world stage.

Similarly, Mexico (10th by population and 13th by GDP) has failed to lift the World Cup despite also having a strong football culture – compare this with Argentina (33rd by population, 26th by GDP), which has won the competition three times.

Perhaps the kudos needs to go to the small countries that have historically overachieved relative to their population and economic power: Portugal (90th by population and 45th  by GDP) is ranked fifth by FIFA; Croatia (131st by population and 71st by GDP) is ranked 11th and is a previous finalist and semi-finalist; and the Netherlands (70th by population and 18th by GDP) is ranked seventh and has appeared in the final three times. But the biggest achiever relative to its size is Uruguay, with a population of 3.4 million. It ranks 133rd by population and 80th by GDP and has won the World Cup twice.

Traditional powerhouses

Yet many believe the winner will come from one of the major Western European countries that combine large populations with high GDPs and a deep football culture. Here, the familiar names are France (22nd by population, 7th by GDP), Spain (30th by population and 14th by GDP), England (20th by population and fifth by GDP – we have used the UK as a proxy for England) and Germany (19th by population and third by GDP).

These countries have many of the world’s oldest and most successful clubs, playing in the richest leagues and supported by many of the world’s best coaches, facilities, and support structures (including nutritionists, conditioning experts, data specialists, etc.). In addition, they have well-managed, well-resourced pipelines that support the development of young talent.

Interestingly, these clubs and support systems benefit players from other countries, too. Clubs in Europe will often seek out talent in the Americas, Africa and Asia and do the heavy lifting in developing and honing the best players from those regions (though some of this footballing diaspora will often end up playing for their new countries).

Countries that benefit from this approach include Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Nigeria. Some countries also benefit from migration over the years to countries with strong football systems. Morocco (ranked eighth, 40th by population and 57th by GDP) features many squad players born in France and Spain who qualify for Morocco by parentage.

A few notes on Africa

Senegal (68th by population, 106th by GDP) is the second-highest ranking African country, behind Morocco. It’s followed by Nigeria (ranked 26th), Algeria (ranked 28th), Egypt (ranked 29th), Côte d’Ivoire (ranked 34th), Tunisia (ranked 44th), DR Congo (ranked 46th), South Africa (ranked 60th), Cabo Verde (ranked 69th) and Ghana (ranked 74th).

Ghana, a quarterfinalist in 2010 (and would have made the semifinal had it not missed a late penalty against Uruguay), represents a major fall from grace. South Africa, too, 24th by population and 39th by GDP, seems to be an underachiever, highlighting perhaps a poor allocation and management of resources for player development.

Qualifiers include small countries like Cape Verde (524,000 population in 2024) and Curaçao, (155,800 population in 2023)

What the markets are predicting

Polymarket, the prediction market platform, had Spain as the favourite to win the trophy at the time of writing, slightly ahead of France, followed by England, Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway, in that order.

According to a report by Bank of America’s strategy team (The Beautiful Game: BofA’s World Cup 2026 Guide, 6 May), a poll of its stakeholders showed that 40% believed France would win the trophy, with 25% expecting France to face Spain in the final.

Conclusion – a game of chances

Data and prediction markets can only tell us so much about how a tournament will turn out. Sports fans know that the bounce of a ball, a split-second decision or a referee’s call (with or without video assistance) can make the difference between victory and defeat. Every tournament has its share of upsets and bookies’ favourites sometimes get knocked out in the early rounds, and this year will probably be no different.

Addendum – ranking the teams by squad values

All teams participating in the tournament were required to submit their final squads by 2 June. With the teams now in, we are able to rank the teams by squad value. We use Transfermarkt, an online football database of player and team statistics, best known for its crowdsourced data for estimated transfer values of players.

With a little help from artificial intelligence, we have ranked the teams based on total squad value, average player value and median player value.

Median player value is a particularly useful number because, unlike an average player value, it’s not skewed by unusually high or low numbers. For example, the overall and average of a team may be skewed higher by having one or two superstars among a squad of less highly valued players.

Using these methodologies, we see that FIFA’s top-ranked team, France, ranks highest for both total squad value and median player value, with England in second place on both measures, even though England’s FIFA ranking is fourth. Thereafter it gets more interesting. Germany is fifth by total squad value but third in median player value – even though FIFA ranks Germany at 10th overall. Spain, ranked second by FIFA, is third for total value but fourth for median value. Argentina, by contrast, has a higher FIFA ranking (third), but is eighth by total value and ninth by median player value.

Moving down the table, South Africa ranks 40^th for total value but 36^th for median player value.

 

World Cup squads by total value, average player value and median player values

Source: Transfermarkt, Investec Wealth & Investment International, 2 June 2026

Note: Player values can vary. Consult Transfermarkt for the latest player value estimates.