President Biden and President Ramaphosa

13 Jul 2021

These are the forces shaping markets in 2021

Politics, whether local or global, has a direct bearing on the economy and markets. 

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In this panel discussion, hosted by the Association of Corporate Treasurers, Justice Malala, political analyst and journalist and Peter Attard Montalto, Head of Capital Markets Research at Intellidex, talk about some of the key political, geopolitical and economic trends shaping markets right now. Peter Rattey, Head of Treasury Sales at Investec, is the moderator.

Click on the videos below to follow the discussion.

This discussion was recorded on 29 June 2021.

 
Part 1: Introduction and overview of recent developments on the local and international front and their likely impact on markets

“We have this terms of trade boom going on, which is going to generate about an extra R45bn of cash this year. PGM prices are [also] in a very different place, and so all of this just gives a different flavour,” - Peter Attard Montalto.

 
Part 2: The outlook for US-China relations in a post-Trump world and what this means for global trade
Peter Rattey
Peter Rattey, Head of Treasury Sales at Investec Bank

There are a number of South African corporates that have seen better demand coming out of China

Peter Attard Montalto
Peter Attard Montalto

It’s not clear really to me that there’s an additional upside in trade through this year from a Chinese recovery.

“The China recovery story I think is largely played out in the data already, but on the flipside, from the US we are seeing certainly a re-engagement with Africa,” – Peter Attard Montalto.

 
Part 3: Land reform, SA’s credit rating and other issues affecting the market outlook for the next 12 months
Justice Malala
Justice Malala

I think we are going to still be sitting here in a very long while, discussing the land issue and where it’s going.

“I think we going to still be sitting here in a very long while, discussing the land issue and where it’s going within the ANC, outside of the ANC, in parliament, within the EFF and so forth,” - Justice Malala.

“The advice that comes from the more rational side of the ANC is that you can achieve everything that you want to achieve without having to fiddle with the constitution,” - Justice Malala.

“We see [SA’s credit ratings] through the end of next year, probably unchanged, sitting just below investment grade, maybe [with] the removal of some negative watches, but they will basically stay roughly unchanged,” – Peter Attard Montalto.

“I think we just have to agree that this [Covid-19] will be a feature of our lives for another significant amount of time, six months or more and that we will continue to have these ups and downs,” - Justice Malala.

 

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