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SA rands

Rand note: rand stable ahead of municipal elections

The rand continues to run around R16.65/USD, despite the Brent crude oil price falling below US$110/bbl and lower market expectations for a US December interest rate hike with the US dollar weakening, as markets adopt a wait and see attitude.

 

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The local elections in South Africa have added to the hiatus, as the DA and ANC are seen as both polling near 30% nationally, as slippage in voter support for the ANC persists in SA. It is not a national election and it is local municipalities that count.

For Johannesburg the Ipsos poll of 30th October, shows the ANC polling at 27%, the DA at 30% and the EFF and Action SA at 11% and 12% respectively, while the MK, FF+ and IFP are at 5%, 3% and 2% respectively.

Ipsos further found that “(t)wo-thirds of South Africans (65%) believe that different political parties should also work together on the local government/municipality level”.  22% disagree; 10% neither agree nor disagree and 3% have no opinion.

“Earlier in 2026, an Ipsos Pulse of the People study” found the majority of South Africans “agreed or strongly agreed to I believe that the GNU is working well and that it is a better form of government for South Africa than majority rule by the ANC”.

Ipsos’ latest “Pulse of the People” study took place from 12 September to 13 October 2026, when campaigning intensified. The study is designed to provide insight into the views of South Africans from all provinces, settlement types and backgrounds.

“Results are weighted and projected to the adult South African population. Filters were applied to isolate those 18 years and older and registered to vote. South Africans were interviewed in their homes and home languages.”

Of the 44,9 million South Africans 18 and older, only 65% (29,2 million) are registered to vote with 35% of citizens not registered. Tshwane also sees the ANC and DA neck and neck at 31% and 34% respectively. 

In Cape Town the DA polls at 51% while in eThekwini the MK is at 47%, the DA 21% and ANC 10%. Polls results are wide, however. The outcomes of the municipal elections vary somewhat between polls but are unlikely to prove rand sensitive.

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About the author

Annabel Bishop
Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist, Investec Bank Limited South Africa

Annabel Bishop joined Investec in 2001 and is the Chief Economist. She has worked in the macroeconomic, econometric, risk, financial markets, political risk, public finance and regulatory, among other, fields for around 25 years. Annabel is the holder of the Sake/Beeld Economist of the Year award for 2010 and has won numerous monthly Reuters Econometer awards, and various Focus Economics (Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists) categories for correctly forecasting a range of economic variables. She has authored a wide range of in-house and external articles, published both abroad and in South Africa.  She has also guest lectured at Gibbs, the University of Pretoria, Wits, UJ and other academic institutions, and has presented at various national and international conferences. Author of the “Financial Services sector and its support to the economy“ section in the Better Choices Ensuring SA’s Future. 


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