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SA rands

Rand note: rand sees some gains as SA elections pass largely as expected

The rand has shifted stronger, to R16.50/USD from a week ago with the oil price (Brent crude) below US$100/bbl

 

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The rand has shifted stronger, to R16.50/USD from a week ago with the oil price (Brent crude) below US$100/bbl and expectations for a US December interest rate hike continuing its gentle moderation with the US dollar weakening somewhat.

The peaceful local elections in South Africa last week saw the ANC’s outcome similar to the polls, near 30% nationally, but down from 46% (2021) as slippage in voter support for the ANC persists. The DA reached 24% nationally, up from 22% in 2021.

For Johannesburg the DA achieved 35%, up from 26% in the last municipal elections of 2021, and  the ANC 20% slipping from 34%, while Action SA maintained 16%, and the EFF dropped from 11% to 7%, and MK came out at 6%.

With coalitions needed in most councils President Ramaphosa highlighted “(p)olitical parties must cooperate in good faith to reach agreement on the election of office-bearers so that councils can be constituted and they can get to work.”

“In the interests of effective, accountable local government, those who have been elected must work to find common ground from the very outset, regardless of their political differences.”

“(T)he incoming councillors will have an important role in reshaping the system of local government, guided by the recommendations of the revised White Paper on Local Government.”

“The White Paper sets out measures to put municipal finances on a sounder footing, to direct more money to maintaining infrastructure and to ensure that services reach residents reliably.”

“With more than 540 parties and close to 137,000 candidates standing, voters had a greater choice than at any time since 1994. Our democracy continues to evolve and to open new avenues for civic participation.” 

The News24 elections poll was the most accurate seeing the ANC at 31.6% and the DA at 25.2% nationally. SA’s solid democratic base and GNU’s strength aided the rand, but most of the rand’s direction is from the international environment.

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About the author

Annabel Bishop
Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist, Investec Bank Limited South Africa

Annabel Bishop joined Investec in 2001 and is the Chief Economist. She has worked in the macroeconomic, econometric, risk, financial markets, political risk, public finance and regulatory, among other, fields for around 25 years. Annabel is the holder of the Sake/Beeld Economist of the Year award for 2010 and has won numerous monthly Reuters Econometer awards, and various Focus Economics (Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists) categories for correctly forecasting a range of economic variables. She has authored a wide range of in-house and external articles, published both abroad and in South Africa.  She has also guest lectured at Gibbs, the University of Pretoria, Wits, UJ and other academic institutions, and has presented at various national and international conferences. Author of the “Financial Services sector and its support to the economy“ section in the Better Choices Ensuring SA’s Future. 


PREVIOUS RAND UPDATE:

Rand note: rand stable ahead of municipal elections PDF 1.76 MB

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