Energy market podcast

Brent crude has recovered to around $93.50/bbl after falling below $90 last week on optimism that a US-Iran ceasefire agreement could ease tensions in the Gulf. However, reports of further negotiations, renewed military action around the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns over mine clearance have tempered expectations of a swift resolution.

Brent crude fell sharply this week after reports suggested the US and Iran are close to agreeing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and potentially ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Prices dropped from around $105/bbl to $96/bbl before recovering towards $98/bbl following limited US and Israeli strikes near the Strait.

Brent crude climbed above $111 per barrel as renewed Middle East tensions rattled energy markets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE reported fresh drone strikes, with analysts suspecting Iranian-backed militias operating from Iraq or Yemen. 

Oil prices have risen after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest nuclear proposal, increasing geopolitical uncertainty in energy markets. 

Oil prices continue climbing amid stalled US–Iran negotiations, sustaining geopolitical risk premiums critical for UK commodities markets. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, with no clear timeline for reopening.

Oil prices continue climbing amid stalled US–Iran negotiations, sustaining geopolitical risk premiums critical for UK commodities markets. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, with no clear timeline for reopening.

Oil markets are volatile as mixed signals from US–Iran diplomacy unsettle sentiment. Prices fell sharply on Friday, with Brent dropping from near $100/bbl to ~$85, after apparent progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but conflicting statements and a tanker attack suggest it remains closed.

Oil markets are volatile as mixed signals from US–Iran diplomacy unsettle sentiment. Prices fell sharply on Friday, with Brent dropping from near $100/bbl to ~$85, after apparent progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but conflicting statements and a tanker attack suggest it remains closed.

US–Iran talks stalled over the weekend, with Washington demanding firm guarantees that Tehran won’t pursue nuclear weapons. While Iran signalled more negotiations may follow, tensions rose after Trump threatened a targeted blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices opened higher, though the move reflects fading optimism from last week.

Tensions are rising as yet another Trump-imposed deadline on Iran looms, with the Strait of Hormuz at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical standoff. Despite escalating rhetoric and fragile backchannel diplomacy, markets have remained surprisingly calm, even as oil and refined product prices quietly surge beneath the surface.

Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf have intensified, adding renewed upward pressure on global energy prices. President Donald Trump initially gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that failure to comply could trigger strikes on Iranian power infrastructure. This raised concerns about a broader escalation, particularly the risk of retaliatory attacks on energy assets across the region.

Markets found some short-term relief as the deadline was extended, first by five days and then by a further ten, with the current deadline now set for the 6th of April. While this suggests some room for diplomacy, the situation remains highly fragile.

The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is still a major concern. It is a critical artery for global oil supply, moving around 16 million barrels per day, which is close to 20% of global demand. Any prolonged closure has significant implications for energy markets.

Looking ahead, uncertainty remains elevated. There is still a risk of further military escalation, including the possible deployment of US ground forces and potential strikes on key Iranian export infrastructure. For now, oil and gas prices are expected to remain under upward pressure.

Global energy markets have entered a critical phase, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten to spiral into a full-scale supply crisis. In this episode, we unpack the latest developments following Iran’s retaliatory strike on Qatar’s liquified natural gas facility, an attack that wiped out roughly 17% of its capacity and sent shockwaves through global markets. With vital energy infrastructure now directly in the firing line, the risk of prolonged disruption has surged to levels far beyond even a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

With no sign of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, energy markets are facing an extraordinary supply shock. Around 20% of global oil supply has effectively become unavailable, pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. While an emergency G7 meeting to discuss a coordinated reserves release, along with the drawdown of commercial inventories, may buy some time, these measures are temporary. If the conflict and the closure of the strait persist, demand will ultimately need to fall to match reduced supply.

With no sign of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, energy markets are facing an extraordinary supply shock. Around 20% of global oil supply has effectively become unavailable, pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. While an emergency G7 meeting to discuss a coordinated reserves release, along with the drawdown of commercial inventories, may buy some time, these measures are temporary. If the conflict and the closure of the strait persist, demand will ultimately need to fall to match reduced supply.

Brent crude surged above $80 per barrel, after escalating conflict in the Middle East sharply increased fears of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. Just days earlier, Brent had been trading near $73, with markets broadly assuming that US-Iran negotiations would continue.

Escalation was recognised as a risk, but a large-scale disruption to Gulf shipping was not the base case. Over the weekend, that calculus changed. Insurance premiums on vessels transiting the Strait reportedly rose sharply or were withdrawn, naval assets were targeted, and conflicting statements around whether the Strait remains fully open have left markets navigating extreme uncertainty.

Oil reached a fresh yearly high as US-Iran tensions intensified, with Washington boosting military presence while leaving room for negotiations. Markets rallied after Trump suggested a 10–15 day window for a deal, though speculative positioning remains measured, with strong demand for high-strike call options signaling limited expectations of a major price surge. Meanwhile, European energy markets have also strengthened, with Summer 2026 gas and baseload power prices rising, partly driven by movements in emissions allowances.

Oil markets continue to gyrate as shifting signals from Washington and Tehran fuel uncertainty ahead of the next round of nuclear talks in Oman. Mixed rhetoric from both sides has left Brent caught between easing risk premium and renewed geopolitical tension, with traders closely watching for clearer direction.

Oil markets continue to gyrate as shifting signals from Washington and Tehran fuel uncertainty ahead of the next round of nuclear talks in Oman. Mixed rhetoric from both sides has left Brent caught between easing risk premium and renewed geopolitical tension, with traders closely watching for clearer direction.

Oil prices softened into the end of last week following talks between the U.S. and Iran, which were described by both sides as constructive. While the meeting has eased immediate fears and pushed Brent back to around $67/b from recent highs near $70/b, markets remain cautious given the long road ahead and persistent supply-side pressures.

Brent surged above $70/b last week, nearing $72/b, as markets priced in the risk of U.S. military action against Iran. Sentiment has since cooled after confirmation that talks are under way, with prices easing back toward $65/b. While the immediate risk premium has faded, uncertainty around the outcome of negotiations is likely to keep markets on edge.

Brent crude has climbed above $66/b this morning, its highest level since Iran-related tensions peaked earlier this month. The rally reflects renewed geopolitical nervousness and a series of supply-side disruptions, prompting markets to price in a higher short-term risk premium.

Oil markets were volatile last week as tensions around Iran pushed Brent close to $67/b before easing back below $64/b after fears of imminent U.S. military action subsided. While the immediate risk premium has faded, prices remain elevated compared with earlier this year, reflecting ongoing concerns over potential disruptions to sanctioned crude flows.

Before turning to our 2026 Hedging Considerations note circulated on Friday, markets are digesting developments in Iran over the weekend. Rising tensions and the risk of broader regional instability have added a fresh geopolitical premium to oil prices, with Brent firming as investors assess the potential implications for supply and sentiment.

Political uncertainty in Venezuela has resurfaced as a risk factor for oil markets, with US intervention and mixed signals around a leadership transition driving short-term price volatility. Despite this, Venezuela’s constrained and sanctioned production limits its immediate impact on global supply.

As we close out the year, we’re taking stock of the global energy landscape - from oil markets caught between geopolitical tension and shifting fundamentals, to Europe’s winter gas outlook and the risks that lie ahead. Today, we’ll break down where the market stands, what’s driving price movements, and what to watch as we head into the new year.

Brent crude has firmed this morning, approaching $64/b as a series of geopolitical risks, from rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions to attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, push a risk premium back into the market and reverse last week’s optimism around Ukraine peace talks.

Oil prices have come under renewed pressure as markets reassess the geopolitical risk premium following signs of progress toward a potential Ukraine peace plan. Earlier strength driven by fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers has faded, with traders now focusing on shifting diplomatic dynamics and the possibility of reduced supply disruption risk.

Oil markets were volatile last week, with Brent swinging between $62 and $65/b as shifting supply signals, geopolitical tensions, and broader market sentiment drove sharp intraday moves. Despite the fluctuations, prices remain stuck in a well-defined range, capped by persistent oversupply concerns and resistance near the 50-day moving average.

Brent crude fell to $62.84/b last week after Saudi Aramco sharply reduced its official selling prices, signalling weaker demand in Asia. Other Gulf producers followed suit, adding pressure. The decline, in line with softer equity markets, has since steadied with Brent back near $64/b.

Several OPEC+ members agreed over the weekend to unwind a small portion of their additional voluntary cuts in December, while signalling a pause in further output increases until the end of March next year. The move, largely in line with expectations, suggests the group is prioritising market stability after recent price weakness, leaving oil prices modestly firmer around $65/b this morning.

After briefly threatening to fall below $60/b last week, Brent crude has staged a strong recovery, climbing back above $65/b. The rebound reflects a shift in market sentiment, driven by new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors, easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and a broader improvement in global risk appetite.

Brent crude fell to $60.14/b on Friday, its weakest level since May, and remains below $61/b this morning. The selloff followed a break below key support at $65/b after Trump announced new 100% tariffs on China. Sentiment worsened as U.S. equities tumbled on reports of bank fraud linked to distressed mortgage loans and concerns over stretched AI valuations. Adding pressure, China’s Q3 GDP came in below 5%, highlighting weak demand.

In today’s episode, we explore the recent drop in Brent oil prices and what’s really driving the move - fundamentals or global market sentiment. From trade tensions between the US and China to shifting supply expectations, we break down the key factors shaping oil’s future and what might come next.

OPEC+ members agreed over the weekend to proceed with a modest production increase of around 137 kb/d for November, continuing the phased unwinding of last year’s voluntary cuts. While largely in line with market expectations, the decision is expected to have limited impact on overall supply given existing overproduction among several members.

Geopolitical tensions and supply constraints are impacting energy markets. Russian diesel restrictions, continued Ukrainian strikes on refineries, and evolving U.S. policy signals have tightened supply, contributing to Brent trading above $70/b for the first time since early August.

Despite stepped-up Ukrainian strikes and fresh EU measures aimed at curbing Russian oil exports, Brent continues to trade in the $65–$70 range. Market sentiment remains cautious, with limited signs of momentum ahead of the September OPEC+ meeting.

Recent geopolitical events, including the Israeli attack on Doha and Russian drones entering Polish airspace, have influenced energy markets. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest report suggest a potential surplus.

The eight core OPEC+ members have agreed to a modest increase in oil output for October, surprising markets after recent cuts. As production dynamics shift, the implications for global supply and pricing are significant.

Despite ongoing market uncertainties, Brent continues to trade around $68/b. The recent meeting between India, China, and Russia signals a unified front against US sanctions, while the upcoming OPEC+ meeting is unlikely to result in significant policy changes.

Oil prices rally on worries about Russian oil exports in view of the imminent increase in tariffs on India, which aim to dissuade India from buying in Russian oil.

Following the Trump - Putin meeting after market close on Friday, initial uncertainty about the outcomes has shifted to optimism, with Russia agreeing to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. As markets react to this development, attention turns to the complexities of negotiations and their potential impact on oil, gas, and electricity prices.

With Trump's deadline for a Russian ceasefire passing, Brent crude fell to $65.50/b, indicating market speculation about potential deals. As focus shifts back to rising OPEC+ output and summer demand, the implications for global oil and gas markets remain uncertain.

OPEC+ has officially decided to unwind the remaining voluntary cuts, which aligns with recent market trends. This move, combined with the latest developments in US tariffs, has significant implications for oil supply and pricing.

Oil prices have edged higher following the recent EU trade agreement with the US, which prevents the imposition of higher tariffs. While details are still being finalized, the agreement is seen as a positive step for oil markets, with OPEC+ members set to meet next weekend to discuss September production.

Oil prices have stayed relatively stable over the past week, strengthening slightly following the announcement of fresh EU sanctions on Russia. Key developments include a new cap on Russian oil prices and expanded sanctions targeting the financial sector, raising questions about the market's response to looming US tariffs.

Brent prices strengthened last week despite ongoing geopolitical risks, as the IEA adjusted its 2025 and 2026 demand forecasts and highlighted a surplus in the market. Meanwhile, developments in US trade policy and a shift in Trump's stance on Russia add further complexity to the outlook for oil prices.

Eight OPEC+ members met over the weekend and agreed to a production increase of 548 kb/d for August, surpassing previous monthly increases. While this decision comes as a surprise to the market, the actual impact on supply may be limited due to several members already exceeding their targets.

After a tumultuous few weeks, energy markets have calmed down. With supply risks from the Middle East seemingly dissipated, the focus now shifts back to concerns over weak demand growth and the potential impact of US tariffs on energy markets.

The US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have raised alarms in the oil and gas markets. Disruptions could lead to higher prices, with markets reacting to these emerging risks.

Chevron shuts down production at the Leviathan field due to security risks. While oil supplies remain unaffected, the market is reacting with volatility, and OPEC+ may adjust its plans in response to these developments.

Brent crude oil prices have strengthened at the end of last week, despite discussions of potential production hikes from OPEC+. Factors such as limited cuts to Saudi selling prices and ongoing overproduction by several members are supporting prices, while the market remains in its current range, with the possibility of reaching $70/b if it breaks out.

OPEC+ has agreed to increase production, setting July's output at 410 kb/d above June and 822 kb/d above the original target. Despite these increases, oil prices rose, likely due to geopolitical tensions, including strikes on Russian airfields that may affect production.

Oil prices remained stable last week despite significant news, with Brent holding around $65/b amid OPEC+ discussions and Trump's comments on EU trade. Bearish factors may lead to further declines if trade talks falter. Meanwhile, gas and power prices in Europe have risen due to maintenance outages in Norway, pushing winter gas futures to their highest levels since early April.

Recent developments on a potential Iran nuclear deal have impacted the oil market, with Brent hovering around $65/b. The IEA's report shows upward revisions in oil demand for 2024-2026, but concerns about oversupply persist, especially with the potential increase in Iranian crude later this year.

The oil market rallied into the end of last week on optimism about talks between China and the US on trade. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK, discusses what progress has been made and what does this mean for energy markets.

OPEC+ have announced an increase in output over the weekend. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK, discusses what has been decided and the motivation behind the move.

Brent set a new recent high in its recovery from the sell-off at the start of this month. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK discusses market prospects in the current global environment.

In this episode, we discuss the recent rise in the oil market to $68/b and the factors driving this change, including US-Iran talks. We also touch on the implications for oil prices, US-China trade relations, and the current state of European electricity and gas markets. Tune in for insights into the future of these sectors.

With the latest Tariff announcements from US President Donald Trump, oil has rallied following. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK discusses the oil price outlook, amid uncertainty in the market.

The sharp sell-off in oil markets after Trump’s tariffs were announced last week, continues this morning. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK discusses the latest in the oil market and why OPEC+ announced an output increase when prices were already falling.

With the continued strengthening of Brent, Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK looks at whether the market still concerned about supply.

Oil has strengthened over the last week and Brent is over 72 $/b this morning.? Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK looks at what has been behind this move and if the rally can continue.

Last week was much quieter in oil markets than the week before, despite continued falls in US equities. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK discusses why did oil not follow equities lower again.

It’s been a tumultuous time in energy markets and Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK takes a look at some key events from last week and how the market reacted.

Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK, discusses the impact of uncertainty in the oil market brought about by President Trump's trade policies and the debate over Ukraine peace talks.

Brent fell at the end of last week, whereas it had been rallying strongly for much of last week. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK looks at what brought about this change of direction.

Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK discusses the latest report from the Internation Energy Agency looking at outlook for supply and demand.

Since last week’s podcast, Trump has delayed some of the new tariffs, Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK, discusses what has been going on and what this might mean for oil.

U.S President Donald Trump has gone ahead with introducing the tariffs he threatened. Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK looks at the oil market reaction to the new tariffs imposed by Washington.

Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec UK, delves into the impact of President Trump's latest statements and executive orders on the global oil and gas markets.

Investec's Head of Commodities, Callum Macpherson, looks at the impact the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and Trump's incoming presidency are having on the Brent crude market, and how far its rally has left to run.

Investec's Head of Commodities Callum Macpherson gives insights into the 2025 Hedging Considerations’ themes and how they relate to the latest in the market at the moment.

The energy update is back with season three, and in the first episode of the year Investec's Head of Commodities Callum Macpherson discusses factors driving Brent’s positive tone at the beginning of 2025.