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US President Donald Trump

16 Jul 2025

US deficit to widen further

With fiscal support still flowing, US equities remain buoyant despite stretched valuations. But growing deficits are weighing on the dollar and Treasuries. Meanwhile, global and South African assets look increasingly well-positioned.

 

The GISG increased its US risk score from -1 to -0.5 on a scale of +3 to -3, while the SA risk score was maintained at 1 on a scale of -3 to +3.

The US equity market continues to screen as expensive, supported by continuing strong earnings growth. While there are increasing signs that the US economy is due to slow, the passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill by the House suggests that there will be continuing fiscal support for growth. While this should be helpful for equities, it does increase the risks for both the US dollar and US Treasuries.

Outside of the US, equity valuation is much less demanding, and with signs that China is reaccelerating, we can expect support for equities in the rest of the world and for commodity prices.

 

Chris Holdsworth, chief investment strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International
Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International

Given continuing fiscal support in the US, we have increased our risk score to -0.5 (less risk off) from -1. We still see better opportunities for risk assets outside of the US and expect the US dollar to weaken.

For more market insights, tune into Chris' weekly podcast Macro Monday

 

The key debate about South African assets focused on whether the local risk score should remain at +1 given the slowdown in the recovery of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the fall in business confidence and the recent strong rally in South African assets.

Offsetting these concerns were rising commodity prices, still strong formal sector income growth and still attractive valuations. The committee decided to keep the risk score at +1 and remain overweight South African assets.

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