‘Twas the poem before Christmas

‘Twas the night before Christmas which meant it was time
To review market movements with poorly versed rhyme
The theme of the year was the same as the prior
Inflation above target, interest rates heading higher

As the year progressed on inflation’s fall was much greater
Last year’s commodity price spike rolling out of the data
Higher interest rates have helped to push demand down
Recessions were forecast but haven’t yet come to town

While interest rates rose the US Dollar was king
Fighting this move would have caused quite a sting
But now it looks like interest rates may have peaked
So long Dollar positions it seems have been tweaked

Geopolitical tensions and conflicts are rife
A pause we must take for this sad loss of life
But in financial markets we have seen little scare
No safe haven rally, no big move to share

In fact through this year FX markets were stable
At least on the whole so we give it that label
Sterling Euro years past had seen quite a storm
This year’s six percent range much less than the norm

But as we head to year’s end the Dollar is falling
The market has moved, no more hikes it is calling
Instead we look to how long they will pause
A much welcomed gift like from old Santa Claus

And as we move forward the market starts to decide
When interest rates will be cut and prepares for the ride
For if the Dollar was stronger with rates up before
It would follow it falls if rates are higher no more.

So as we look to next year and the horizon ahead
Of many factors to weigh, the first is the Fed
And the other central bankers abroad and at home
But I expect the most key is our good friend Jerome

We also have elections in the US and UK
Will we see Trump’s return to cries of No Way
In the UK the election seems Labour’s to lose
But that one is up to the public to choose

Whatever next year brings know Investec are here
A trusted partner to offer support and good cheer
So we take this chance to say thanks and to write
Happy Christmas to all and to all a good night