The recovery of the global GDP has been far better than expected – about 6%. This growth is expected decelerate next year but expected to be around 4%. With those growth numbers comes increased demand - US retail sales are up 20% due to increased employment and wages. The US consumer particularly will continue to support the global economy. 

Supply chain issues continue with ships sitting outside ports with large delays, especially with computer chips. However, situation is already showing sign of improvement. 

The risk lies with inflation, with elevated levels in the US (above 5%) until at least April 2022. Global inflation is at 4.5% and will remain elevated. The Fed is expected to hike interest rates three times next year.

The SA economy is expected to grow by 5% - commodity prices are high, there is a large trade surplus, and government revenue is on the up. Inflation is at 5% and expected to stay there for the foreseeable future. The market expects the SARB to hike interest rates eight times next year, but our view is a more realistic one or two hikes.


Watch the video

For more Quick Update insights, click on the image below:

  • Limited offer | Earn Rewards points with Aon

    If you take up an Aon insurance policy starting between 1 December 2021 and 28 February 2022, you will earn up to 1% of your first three months’ insurance premiums back in Investec Rewards points.

    Send cash, get cash

    You can easily and conveniently send cash to anyone with a cellphone number, including yourself, using ‘Send Cash’ on Investec Online and the App.

    We’re changing our email addresses

    In line with our positioning as an international bank and wealth management group, we’re in the process of changing all of our regional email addresses to