The year has barely started and already it’s promising to be anything but boring. How will the world deal with Donald Trump, a man on a mission, in the White House? How will politics and geopolitics around the world affect the outlook? Does the AI-driven boom have legs? Will inflation re-emerge and if so, how will markets react?
None of these are easy questions to answer in today’s uncertain world, but our panel has taken on the task with some thoughtful and incisive answers. While there’s broad agreement on many topics, they also offer a good blend of views that follow the consensus in some areas and are contrarian in others. At the same time, the opinions here should not be read as a “house view” but rather a snapshot of the different views that go into the discussions about strategy, asset allocation and stock selection.
(On that score, we highlight that many of those who contributed their answers in this article are members of Investec’s Global Investment Strategy Group (GISG) and asset allocation teams, where their broad range of ideas and opinions contribute to the overall risk score, commentary and asset allocations of our different committees. The result is a well-distilled process that guides the way we manage your money. You can read more about our positioning in our latest Global Investment View, which we suggest reading alongside this article.)
Our panel this year is made up of the following people:
- Awongiwe Booi (fixed income analyst)
- Annelise Peers (chief investment officer, Investec Switzerland)
- Barry Shamley (portfolio manager and head of the ESG Committee)
- Chris Holdsworth (chief investment strategist)
- Neil Urmson (wealth manager)
- Osagyefo Mazwai (investment strategist)
- Richard Cardo (portfolio manager responsible for the Global Leaders portfolio)
Key:
- AB = Awongiwe Booi
- AP = Annelise Peers
- BS = Barry Shamley
- CH = Chris Holdsworth
- NU = Neil Urmson
- OM = Osagyefo Mazwai
- RC = Richard Cardo

It’s not clear that new governments will have the solution to the problems that got them elected but we can expect them to try, with the associated uncertainty and volatility.

Broadly speaking, the US stock market has done better than Europe and the rest of the world because the US offers better economic growth, and its companies better economic profits.

I don’t think Trump likes war (even though he talks about it a lot). War deviates him from the real goals he wants to execute and also leaves less money to spend.

Inflation might be sticky above 2% for the first half of the year, but I expect it will fall below 2% for the year-end.

Emerging markets are better positioned for a cyclical recovery due to inflation being within central banks’ target ranges in most emerging markets

It’s difficult to talk about fundamentals when there are no future cash flows to discount but there is certainly a growing acceptance of crypto as an alternative asset class.
About the author

Patrick Lawlor
Editor
Patrick writes and edits content for Investec Wealth & Investment, and Corporate and Institutional Banking, including editing the Daily View, Monthly View, and One Magazine - an online publication for Investec's Wealth clients. Patrick was a financial journalist for many years for publications such as Financial Mail, Finweek, and Business Report. He holds a BA and a PDM (Bus.Admin.) both from Wits University.
Get Focus insights straight to your inbox
Disclaimer
Although information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Investec Wealth & Investment International (Pty) Ltd or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively “W&I”) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates represent W&I’s view at the time of going to print and are subject to change without notice. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. The information contained herein is for information purposes only and readers should not rely on such information as advice in relation to a specific issue without taking financial, banking, investment or other professional advice. W&I and/or its employees may hold a position in any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation of investment, financial or banking services by W&I . W&I accepts no liability for any loss or damage of whatsoever nature including, but not limited to, loss of profits, goodwill or any type of financial or other pecuniary or direct or special indirect or consequential loss howsoever arising whether in negligence or for breach of contract or other duty as a result of use of the or reliance on the information contained in this document, whether authorised or not. W&I does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all investors or other potential clients who are therefore responsible for compliance with their applicable local laws and regulations. This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part or copies circulated without the prior written consent of W&I.
Investec Wealth & Investment International (Pty) Ltd, registration number 1972/008905/07. A member of the JSE Equity, Equity Derivatives, Currency Derivatives, Bond Derivatives and Interest Rate Derivatives Markets. An authorised financial services provider, license number 15886. A registered credit provider, registration number NCRCP262.
Investec products you may be interested in
Related articles
Browse further in